[Speculation] Sage to the Jets?

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Roy P

Really?

You don't think we could get a player who contributes in the 5th round? Or are you simply saying that we can't get a 5th round QB who would be as "dependable" as Sage? I think I could find a couple of 5th rounders who might compete for a starting position on this team, how sad is that?

Bear Pascoe
Matt Shaugnessy
Lawrence Sidbury
Corvey Irvin
Dannel Ellerbe
Cedric Peerman
AQ Shipley
CJ Spillman
Andy Kemp

Heck, Marlon Lucky is rated as undrafted and he'd probably add more into the W column than Sage.

NFL teams sink thousands of man hours and millions of dollars into scouting and regularly blow 1st round picks, and yet you are confident you can tell which UDFAs will add to the win column? Talk about the definition of Hubris. The best you can do is work hard to research the publicly available internet data and take a guess. I am confident after years of watching your posts that you do indeed do the best anyone could possibly do in the circumstances, but you are still levels below the guys making the actual picks (mostly due to resources and personal access to players). And they blow it all the time. You are pretending if you think you know what 5th rounders make us better next year.

As for Sage. Kubiak is coaching for his job, and our backup QB will be on the field next year if history is an indicator. Sage has shown himself to be a good NFL backup (no more, no less). We would be hard pressed to improve at that position if we dealt him, and we are not going to turn our team around next year for the 5th you guys advocate taking.

If we had a young coach with a longer leash I'd say Sage is gone in the name of young talent. But as it is, I just don't see them pulling the trigger for a low round pick.

[dalemurphy]

Originally Posted by Roy P

Really?

You don't think we could get a player who contributes in the 5th round? Or are you simply saying that we can't get a 5th round QB who would be as "dependable" as Sage? I think I could find a couple of 5th rounders who might compete for a starting position on this team, how sad is that?

Bear Pascoe
Matt Shaugnessy
Lawrence Sidbury
Corvey Irvin
Dannel Ellerbe
Cedric Peerman
AQ Shipley
CJ Spillman
Andy Kemp

Heck, Marlon Lucky is rated as undrafted and he'd probably add more into the W column than Sage.

If there's a guy we like in the 5th round, I'd rather just trade down 4 spots in the 1st and pick up a 3rd and a 5th... or, trade down in the second 3 spots and pick up a 5th. Makes a lot more sense than turning a strength (QB depth) into a weakness for pick #145 in the draft. By the way, how have these draft picks helped the team:

Brandon Harrison
Brandon Frye
Frank Okam... those are our 5th rounders since 2006- I would not trade Sage Rosefels for any of those guys, and I was a huge fan of Brandon Frye going into last season.

[BigBull]

Everyone quit drinking the Sage cool aid and wakeup and smell the coffee. He is average to below average at best.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by barrett

So I don't see a deal going down unless it makes us a better team next year and no way does a 5th round pick do that.

So you're saying Sage makes the Texans better? I have to think about that one myself actually.

Even if he does, it seems a bit presumptuous to think there isn't another UFA who might be just as serviceable if needed in 2009. A few potential UFAs that might work well here as a #2 (in additional to whatever trade compensation the team would get for Rosenfels): J.P. Losman, Patrick Ramsey (who had been pursued by the Texans once upon a time), J.T. O'Sullivan, Jeff Garcia (also once pursued by the Texans), Charlie Frye, Kyle Boller, Byron Leftwich...

I can understand that there might be some unbridled Sage love around here, but I think the "step down" to any of these is a pretty short one, esp if you give that Texans warroom a shot at another draft pick.

I just find it REALLY hard to believe that any team is asking the Texans for Sage just hoping he might come in to compete as a starter, including the Jets. If I were the Jets, I think I would prefer rolling the dice with either Ratliff or Clemens than try to bring in Rosenfels.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by barrett

The best you can do is work hard to research the publicly available internet data and take a guess.

2004 - RB Michael Turner
2005 - LB Adam Seward
2006 - DE Mark Anderson
2007 - WR Aundae Allison and LB Tim Shaw
2008 - OT Carl Nicks

Those were my 5th round picks over the last 5 years. They aren't Pro-Bowlers, except for Turner (I got lucky), but they were "My Guys" and I'll stand by them. The names that I threw out today were prospects that NFLDraft scout currently has listed as 5th rounders. Invariably, players that they rank as 3rd-4th round projects end up lasting until the 5th round. Turner was given a 2nd-3rd round grade, Seward 3-4th, Anderson 2-3rd, Allison a 3rd round grade and Shaw was ranked 3rd round. Carl Nicks had a 4th round grade after his off-field incident (he had been a 2nd round guy). Given that history, we could possibly end up with Eric Wood or Cody Brown in the 5th this year.

As for getting another backup - Ramsey would be the 1st guy I'd look at. He knows the playbook and can hold his own. Just like Sage.

I'm all for "just" trading down a couple slots to pick up late picks. Now if we can "just" find a willing trade partner to make that happen.

[dalemurphy]

Originally Posted by BigBull

Everyone quit drinking the Sage cool aid and wakeup and smell the coffee. He is average to below average at best.

Okay, then I'd like to see your list of 17 backup QBs who you think are better... Not only that, but guys that would be better for the Texans next year.

I'm the same guy who screamed insanity when people were calling for Sage to start of Schaub after the '07 season. I've got a very good idea who he is. The disagreement isn't about Sage's talent but about the importance of a backup QB. I think they're important. Some of you would trade a proven backup for a 5th round pick without worrying about what you'd replace him with. I find that ludicrous!

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by dalemurphy

If there's a guy we like in the 5th round, I'd rather just trade down 4 spots in the 1st and pick up a 3rd and a 5th... or, trade down in the second 3 spots and pick up a 5th. Makes a lot more sense than turning a strength (QB depth) into a weakness for pick #145 in the draft. By the way, how have these draft picks helped the team:

Brandon Harrison
Brandon Frye
Frank Okam... those are our 5th rounders since 2006- I would not trade Sage Rosefels for any of those guys, and I was a huge fan of Brandon Frye going into last season.

In this year draft where we are picking, dropping down in the 1st is a smart move, not much difference in player #15 and player #40. But there are a lot of 2nd 3rd round guys. I am almost to the point of thinking about dropping out of this year 1st, and adding as many mid round guys as I can.

[BigBull]

Originally Posted by dalemurphy

Okay, then I'd like to see your list of 17 backup QBs who you think are better... Not only that, but guys that would be better for the Texans next year.

This is the first 17 off the top of my head. I sure if I looked all 32 teams backups the list would change some.
1. Matt Cassel
2. Matt Leinart
3. Jeff Garcia
4. Derek Anderson
5. Byron Leftwich
6. Patrick Ramsey
7. Chris Simms
8. J.P. Losman
9. Brian Griese
10. Troy Smith
11. Billy Volek
12. Seneca Wallace
13. Kevin Kolb
14. Luke McCown
15. Josh McCown
16. Charlie Whitehurst
17. Brian Brohm

[Joshua]

I tend to agree with Keith that some may be overvaluing Sage's value in comparison with other potential backups. I pulled up Sage's game logs from last year to remind myself of what he did. Here's what he did, he went 2-3 as a starter and also played significant minutes in the Minnesota game (another loss). Why exactly is a guy who went 2-4 for us last year so valuable to the win column? While it is clearly speculation, had we traded Sage for the 3rd rounder and signed Leftwich, I don't think there is any way he would have been worse than 1-5 in Sage's place. At the very least, I think Leftwich would have won the Cleveland game, as we held them to 6 points and Sage didn't do us any favors by throwing 2 picks. Then, there's a very decent chance that Leftwich would have been as good or better.

The bottom line is that Sage didn't help us win last year. I think virtually any backup would have won the Cleveland game. Now, maybe Sage helped us win the Jacksonville game when another backup would not have, but, to me, that one game doesn't warrant turning down a 4th or 5 round pick, if you could get it. (Not to mention that another backup might not have turned into the Rosenchopter).

[barrett]

that's a pathetic list.

outside of Cassell who is no longer a backup and Garcia who hasn't been for years there is not a QB better than Sage on there.

Sage is a turnover machine. He forces throws that his arm don't allow him to get away with. The more he plays, the worse he does. When he starts, teams prepare for Sage he looks bad because they capitalize on his weaknesses. This is why he is a backup. Half of you arguing against him were calling for him to start back during the season. Roy was one of the only voices outside of my own who never trumpeted him over Schaub.

But with that said, Sage moves a team up and down the field as well as any backup QB and better than many starters. The more he plays, the more the returns diminish, but he is a great guy to pull off the bench or to spot start.

Additionally, it is obvious Kubiak likes him. I don't see him surrendering him for just a guy since he is coaching for his job this year.

[Joshua]

FYI, here is a pre-season list of the top backups by Don Banks of SI.com -

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...08/26/backups/

The list has some problems (like Cassell being left off because he thought he would get cut after a terrible preseason). However, Sage ranked 3rd (and that's probably about right). Nevertheless, there are several guys at the bottom that I think would perform well enough to warrant moving Sage if you could get something in return. I could get by with Tyler Thigpen, Matt Moore, Byron Leftwich, Ramsey, Boller or Frerotte.

[Joshua]

Originally Posted by barrett

that's a pathetic list.

outside of Cassell who is no longer a backup and Garcia who hasn't been for years there is not a QB better than Sage on there.

Sage is a turnover machine. He forces throws that his arm don't allow him to get away with. The more he plays, the worse he does. When he starts, teams prepare for Sage he looks bad because they capitalize on his weaknesses. This is why he is a backup. Half of you arguing against him were calling for him to start back during the season. Roy was one of the only voices outside of my own who never trumpeted him over Schaub.

But with that said, Sage moves a team up and down the field as well as any backup QB and better than many starters. The more he plays, the more the returns diminish, but he is a great guy to pull off the bench or to spot start.

Additionally, it is obvious Kubiak likes him. I don't see him surrendering him for just a guy since he is coaching for his job this year.

Don't disagree that Sage is probably one of the better ones, but even so, I think that misses the point a little bit. A number of these guys would probably give you 90% of what Sage does. In my opinion, the opportunity to get another draft pick offsets what little extra value Sage might give you.

I think you're spot on with your analysis of Sage and he can move the ball in spot duty. However, the bottom line is he went 2-4 last year, with 1 win being a Rex Grossman special (a 16-6 win where Sage threw 2 picks). I don't see how anyone can think Sage had any significant impact on us winning games last year. And if he didn't, why is he so valuable?

[popanot]

Garcia would be a huge upgrade to Sage (especially a short-term upgrade), IMO. However, this trade talk is silly. No team in their right mind would give anything for Sage. He was worth something before the start of last season, but his play pretty much wiped out any value he had. Plus, Kubiak seems comfortable with him so he probably wouldn't trade him unless it was an outrageous offer, which is not going to happen.

[dalemurphy]

Originally Posted by BigBull

This is the first 17 off the top of my head. I sure if I looked all 32 teams backups the list would change some.
1. Matt Cassel - he's getting paid $14.5 million this year
2. Matt Leinart - he's getting paid a lot and hasn't proven anything
3. Jeff Garcia - 39 years old but a possibility
4. Derek Anderson-he's getting $7 million per year and would cost a lot in a trade
5. Byron Leftwich - doesn't get rid of the ball
6. Patrick Ramsey - why on earth do you think he's better
7. Chris Simms - I guess it's possible but I wouldn't trust him
8. J.P. Losman - He might fit in our system, acutally
9. Brian Griese - about the same player as Sage but teammates don't like him
10. Troy Smith - huh?
11. Billy Volek - in 2003
12. Seneca Wallace - you're delirious
13. Kevin Kolb - yeah, he looked great coming in for McNabb
14. Luke McCown - well, he's scheduled to start
15. Josh McCown - he completes almost 1/2 his passes
16. Charlie Whitehurst - that's obnoxious
17. Brian Brohm- based on what evidence?

Clearly you aren't interested in reason. You are just going to throw out a bunch of names and refuse to see any logic.

[dalemurphy]

Originally Posted by Joshua

Don't disagree that Sage is probably one of the better ones, but even so, I think that misses the point a little bit. A number of these guys would probably give you 90% of what Sage does. In my opinion, the opportunity to get another draft pick offsets what little extra value Sage might give you.

I think you're spot on with your analysis of Sage and he can move the ball in spot duty. However, the bottom line is he went 2-4 last year, with 1 win being a Rex Grossman special (a 16-6 win where Sage threw 2 picks). I don't see how anyone can think Sage had any significant impact on us winning games last year. And if he didn't, why is he so valuable?

Sage had a winnng record in 2007. Are you arguing that he's on the downside of his career? The point is that Sage knows the offense, can run it with some efficiency and doesn't really limit what we do when he's in the game. The idea that a team playing for something would trade him away for a late round pick without an answer in place at that position is foolish, especially considering Schaub's inability to play a full season to this point in his career. Everyone loves draft picks. It certainly makes the off-season more exciting, but I don't want to be sitting in the stands watching Craig Nall handoff 45 times while staring at the 5th round pick with my binnoculars sitting on the bench, which is what most rookie 5th round picks do.

[Joshua]

Originally Posted by dalemurphy

Sage had a winnng record in 2007. Are you arguing that he's on the downside of his career? The point is that Sage knows the offense, can run it with some efficiency and doesn't really limit what we do when he's in the game. The idea that a team playing for something would trade him away for a late round pick without an answer in place at that position is foolish, especially considering Schaub's inability to play a full season to this point in his career. Everyone loves draft picks. It certainly makes the off-season more exciting, but I don't want to be sitting in the stands watching Craig Nall handoff 45 times while staring at the 5th round pick with my binnoculars sitting on the bench, which is what most rookie 5th round picks do.

Although he will be 31 in 1 month, I wouldn't argue he is on the downside of his career. I would argue that 2008 is indicative of his career and that 2007 was the anomaly (at least as to his ability to lead a team to victories). I don't think he's a guy who can routinely win 60-70% of his games. I think he is more like the guy he was this year and realistically can win 40-50% of his games if he gets a couple of good breaks. While that probably puts him in the upper echelon of backups, I don't think it makes him that much better.

As for not having an answer in place, I guess I would disagree that finding a replacement would be that hard and I see no reason why we would end up with a Craig Nall. Every year there are veterans like Mark Brunell, Brad Johnson, Jeff Garcia, etc. who are begging to catch on with teams. Then you've got the Ramseys, Bollers, Leftwichs, and Losmans of the world who are younger but never quite lived up to expectations (at least as starters). I don't think it would be difficult for the Texans to land one of these guys (much like we picked up Quinn Gray last year). Even if Sage were better, I think the difference between Sage and most of these guys is probably only a game or 2 at most.

While draft picks are no guarantee, I would roll the dice with a 5th rounder and some veteran to be named later. While you may be right and we end up with Schaub injured and a terrible QB tanking our season while our draft pick rides the pine, I would rather think that Schaub stays healthy, we grab a cheap backup who can do the job if necessary, and have a draft pick that looks like a steal.

Quite frankly, unless Schaub stays healthy and we get a few more draft picks right, all of this is moot because we probably aren't good enough to win consistently unless both of these things happen.

[cadams]

yeah, all this talk about Nall is meaningless. anyone arguing that trading Sage would mean Nall would be annointed the #2 are not being realistic about the situation. there are a lot of QBs out there who would be just fine as a backup. the texans would sign one of those guys and he would be the #2 unless Nall really showed him something. Here are the UFAs avaibable this offseason who could be had as backups most likely. This list may be a bit off as some of these guys may have already signed, but do you reall think that someone like Simms, Ramsey, or Losman couldn't decent enough as a backup to be able to trade Sage for a draft pick? Also, Garcia isn't on this list because he could end up as a starter, but I would feel just as confident with him as a backup as Sage anyday. also, just noticed that someone already posted this list, but i had already typed this out so i am posting it our of principle.

Chris Simms/Tennessee Titans/UFA
J.P. Losman/Buffalo Bills/UFA
Byron Leftwich/Pittsburgh Steelers/UFA
Rex Grossman/Chicago Bears/UFA
Kyle Boller/Baltimore Ravens/UFA
Luke McCown/Tampa Bay Buccaneers/UFA
Patrick Ramsey/Denver Broncos/UFA
Brooks Bollinger/Dallas Cowboys/UFA
Dan Orlovsky/Detroit Lions/UFA
Charlie Frye/Seattle Seahawks/UFA
Charlie Batch/Pittsburgh Steelers/UFA
Anthony Wright/New York Giants/UFA

[dalemurphy]

Originally Posted by cadams

yeah, all this talk about Nall is meaningless. anyone arguing that trading Sage would mean Nall would be annointed the #2 are not being realistic about the situation. there are a lot of QBs out there who would be just fine as a backup. the texans would sign one of those guys and he would be the #2 unless Nall really showed him something. Here are the UFAs avaibable this offseason who could be had as backups most likely. This list may be a bit off as some of these guys may have already signed, but do you reall think that someone like Simms, Ramsey, or Losman couldn't decent enough as a backup to be able to trade Sage for a draft pick? Also, Garcia isn't on this list because he could end up as a starter, but I would feel just as confident with him as a backup as Sage anyday. also, just noticed that someone already posted this list, but i had already typed this out so i am posting it our of principle.

Chris Simms/Tennessee Titans/UFA
J.P. Losman/Buffalo Bills/UFA
Byron Leftwich/Pittsburgh Steelers/UFA
Rex Grossman/Chicago Bears/UFA
Kyle Boller/Baltimore Ravens/UFA
Luke McCown/Tampa Bay Buccaneers/UFA
Patrick Ramsey/Denver Broncos/UFA
Brooks Bollinger/Dallas Cowboys/UFA
Dan Orlovsky/Detroit Lions/UFA
Charlie Frye/Seattle Seahawks/UFA
Charlie Batch/Pittsburgh Steelers/UFA
Anthony Wright/New York Giants/UFA

If it is week #14 and the Texans are 8-4 and playing the Indy Colts for the division lead and MSchaub is out two weeks with a cracked rib, I'll take Sage Rosenfels and you can have anybody on that list of yours plus a 5th round pick... Do you really like your situation better than starting Sage Rosenfels. Don't forget, this is Sage's 4th year in this offense, throwing to this group of receivers. That's significant!

[nero THE zero]

Originally Posted by dalemurphy

If it is week #14 and the Texans are 8-4 and playing the Indy Colts for the division lead and MSchaub is out two weeks with a cracked rib, I'll take Sage Rosenfels and you can have anybody on that list of yours plus a 5th round pick... Do you really like your situation better than starting Sage Rosenfels. Don't forget, this is Sage's 4th year in this offense, throwing to this group of receivers. That's significant!

I can only hope that some other team's GM thinks as highly of Sage as you do.

It's only February and you've already forgetten the biggest meltdown in Texan history at the hands of the Rosencopter.

[Joshua]

Originally Posted by dalemurphy

If it is week #14 and the Texans are 8-4 and playing the Indy Colts for the division lead and MSchaub is out two weeks with a cracked rib, I'll take Sage Rosenfels and you can have anybody on that list of yours plus a 5th round pick... Do you really like your situation better than starting Sage Rosenfels. Don't forget, this is Sage's 4th year in this offense, throwing to this group of receivers. That's significant!

I vaguely remember Sage playing the Colts this past year. I thought that game ended badly, but I must be mistaken since dale is adamant that he's the guy to take on the Colts next year in week 14.

In all seriousness, my first point would be that your hypothetical is tailormade for your viewpoint. It is also possible that Sage never sees the field and then leaves as a free agent for nothing. But accepting your hypothetical, because Sage is so turnover-prone, I really don't think he gives us that much better chance to win than some of these others. On this we will just have to agree to disagree. However, I think Sage's play last year supports my point. He went 2-4 and his turnovers were killers. I don't think Sage played significantly better than most would have given the same opportunity last year.