Chargers "came up one pick short" in drafting Brown [San Diego Union-Tribune]

[papabear]

Originally Posted by Joshua

. All this talk about "reaches" is somewhat silly to me, aside from the possibility of being able to trade back (and get more picks) and still get your guy

I am not a big fan of the reach thing either. In some cases I think it is warranted, but like you said all that matters is if the pick works out in the end. Brown's a good example. The Texans were widely blasted for reaching. Kiper had him projected to go much later, but if the Texans thought he was a guy who could plat LT for them, and do it very soon and at a high level....then take him. Now we find out that a least one other team was ready to take him in the first and we look pretty smart. How he plays is the only deciding factor.

We spend so much time reading guys like Kiper, McShay, RoyP, and all the rest that we just assume that their projections are correct in regards to draft position. The fact is there is absolutely no way to know how much farther a guy would have fallen if someone didn't reach. Hell, I thought the Miami pick for Ginn was stupid because I didn't think he would be that great in the NFL, but if Miami passes up on him who's to say that someone else might have picked him three or four spots later and he wouldn't have been available for them later. You could try and predict it, but the predictions were already wrong once.

Teams draft boards differ from team to team, and I'm sure are quite a bit different than the "experts". If a guys at the top of your board you take him. If he fails it's because your scouting failed, not becuase you reached.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by papabear

Kiper had him projected to go much later, but if the ______thought he was a guy who could play _____ for them, and do it very soon and at a high level....then take him. Now we find out that a least one other team was ready to take him in the first and we look pretty smart. How he plays is the only deciding factor.

If he fails it's because your scouting failed, not becuase you reached.

First, let me just say that "reaching" for a player is not necessarily a bad thing. If that guy who was projected to be a later pick produces, then you look pretty smart.

I showed you guys my draft board and I had Antoine Cason as my top pick for the Texans. According to Kiper, Mayock, and the majority of "draft experts" that would have been a reach. Cason was a guy, like Brown, that was projected as a mid 2nd round pick. However, from what I saw of him on game days and his Combine numbers, he was worth a 1st round pick. Apparently, San Diego agreed with me and selected him right after our pick. So, in essence, San Diego "reached" just like I was willing to do.

Now, we have to see if Cason and Brown play like 1st round picks.

Basically, guys like Kiper are looking for credibility. When a draft expert makes bold predicitons, its likely that many of them will be wrong (just like the weatherman). Therefore, when a guy fails who was selected earlier than we thought they would be, we can say "I told you so" back when team X reached for him on draft day. It's a defense mechanism. Lord knows they show enough clips of when (insert expert) predicted something that was ludicrous.

On the NFL Network they showed Mayock last year stating that Adrian Peterson was drafted too early. On ESPN they show Kiper talking up Eason and discounting Marino in the '83 draft. Etc. etc. It's all apart of the draft hype.

As for scouting and reaching....When your scouts fail and lead you to believe that player X is going to be great when nobody elses scouts shared that opinion, it can make you reach for a player. You just have to trust what your scouts see, that's why you hired them.