Chargers "came up one pick short" in drafting Brown [San Diego Union-Tribune]

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by Roy P

Exhibit C: Logan Mankins.
The Patriots can get away with just about anything. Mankins was never mentioned as a 1st round pick. The Patriots were given the benefit of the doubt because they picked at the bottom of the 1st round and they are the Patriots. In all honesty, Mankins was a reach, by definition (a player selected earlier than the consensus thought he'd be). However, he has done a formidable job on a Super Bowl caliber team, thus avoiding the "bust" label. Hopefully, Duane Brown can fall into this catagory.

"The consensus" being collectively the mock-drafters, who clearly are semi-professional at best. That's generous I think if you're comparing Mel Kiper's knowledge to Bill Billichecks. 'Cause we don't know what "the consensus" of the NFL Boards were on Mankins ?
How about a year later when the Jets took center Nick Mangold, right at the end of the 1st round (29th). He's by all accounts had a successful NFL career up to this point, but he was taken by the Jets
and not the 'Pats so of course he's not been in a SB or the Pro Bowl IIRC ? And as we know it's unusual to take interior Olineman in the first round, so sounds like the former Buckeye is even more obviously a reach than Mankins ?

[cadams]

[QUOTE=nunusguy;641]"The consensus" being collectively the mock-drafters, who clearly are semi-professional at best. [QUOTE]

no kidding. if kiper was as good as he, or espn, would have us believe he would be working for an nfl team instead of espn.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

"

How about a year later when the Jets took center Nick Mangold, right at the end of the 1st round (29th).
And as we know it's unusual to take interior Olineman in the first round, so sounds like the former Buckeye is even more obviously a reach than Mankins ?

Actually, looking back at 2006, Mangold was averaging around the #26 pick. Here's my list of that draft:

1 RB Reggie Bush
2 DE Mario Williams
3 QB Matt Leinart
4 OT D'Brickashaw Ferguson
5 LB AJ Hawk
6 TE Vernon Davis
7 S Michael Huff
8 DT Haloti Ngata
9 QB Vince Young
10 QB Jay Cutler
11 DT Brodrick Bunkley
12 RB DeAngelo Williams
13 LB Chad Greenway
14 CB Tye Hill
15 WR Chad Jackson
16 OT Winston Justice
17 RB LenDale White
18 CB Jimmy Williams
19 S Jason Allen
20 WR Santonio Holmes
21 DE Kamerion Wimbley
22 CB Jonathan Joseph
23 LB Ernie Sims
24 RB Laurence Maroney
25 DE Manny Lawson
26 OC Nick Mangold
27 S Donte Whitner
28 CB Antonio Cromartie
29 LB D'Qwell Jackson
30 LB DeMeco Ryans
31 LB Bobby Carpenter
32 DE Mathias Kiwanuka

The above list was an average of about 20 different Mock drafts/Talent Boards before the draft, obviously.

So, Mangold wasn't considered a reach at the time. Donte Whitner was a "reach" when he was selected #8 by the Bills. Cromartie was coming off an injury, so going #19 was a surprise too.

It's also interesting to note what I call "revisionist history" concerning DeMeco Ryans. It's been said how we were lucky to get what many considered to be a 1st round talent in the 2nd round. People tend to forget that he was projected to go around #30 and we selected him at the very top of the 2nd round with #33. The way people talk about it, he was a top 10 pick who miraculously slid down to the 2nd round.

[Warren]

I'm not real big on blasting somebody for "reaching" either, because we really don't have anything to base it on. If a team has a good feel for what the rest of the league thinks of a player so they feel they can risk waiting, that's great, as they can move back and pick up more picks or take another player who they don't believe will be there later. But otherwise they need to trust their evaluations and not worry about what anybody else thinks.

Looking at it from the other end, every year there are guys who get drafted much later than the "consensus" expects, either because of medical or character issues that aren't public or at least fully public, or because the real scouts just don't think they're as good as the "experts" do. I can't think of a glaring example this year, except maybe LBs Erin Henderson and Ali Highsmith, both of whom were projected by some as high as the 3rd round but went undrafted. If the Texans had picked one of those two in the 4th or 5th it would have been considered a solid value pick and if they had picked one in the 6th or 7th it may have been considered a steal. With the benefit of hindsight, we now know that those picks would have been too early.

[cadams]

Originally Posted by Roy P

It's also interesting to note what I call "revisionist history" concerning DeMeco Ryans. It's been said how we were lucky to get what many considered to be a 1st round talent in the 2nd round. People tend to forget that he was projected to go around #30 and we selected him at the very top of the 2nd round with #33. The way people talk about it, he was a top 10 pick who miraculously slid down to the 2nd round.

I think that is based on a number of things. First, clearly if everyone could do the draft over again Ryans would go very high, but that could be said for a lot of players, so it doesn't really count. You are correct in that he was projected to go around where we got him before draft day, but I think part of what people are talking about were the projections of where he would go before his last college season. I think people had him rated to go between 15-20 going into his last season and he slid for a number of reasons, but of course Texans fans are going to spin it in the best manner for their team. that is natural. but you are correct in that he wasn't considered a "steal" like mendenhal was this year. i am fine with that though, and i ma glad he got dropped on everyone else's board so we could get him.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by cadams

but you are correct in that he wasn't considered a "steal" like mendenhal was this year.

I dunno, was Mendenhal really considered a consensus steal at what 23 or 24in the first round ? I know some people felt that way, most notably the NFLNetworks Mayoc who thought he was the top back even ahead of McFadden. I know I'm glad we didn't pick him.

[bckey]

I'm happy with the Brown Pick. I think what bothered me the most was that Rick Smith and Gary Kubiak seem to have committed themselves to drafting a LT in the 1st round no matter what. It looks like getting Gibbs to come out of retirement heavily influenced their decision making. Maybe they felt obligated because of this and also a little pressure because of the short time most of us think Gibbs will be with the Texans. This type of thinking can cause you to reach or mortgage the farm to move up to get a player you really want badly. Luckily we have the one of the smartest GMs around.

This article makes drafting Brown in the first a little against the norm for Gibbs.

Gibbs, 59, crafted great offensive lines mostly with players other teams had no use for. Unlike just about every other coach, Gibbs didn't lobby to have his team select players for him in the high rounds. He preferred the leftovers, players who have something to prove. Gibbs tore these players down further, and then built them up.

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/m...25/ai_69404525

The Texans came out with a pretty good draft imho. At #18 Smith must have thought that Duane Brown would have been a reach. He was savy enough to trade back and turn the pick into 3 players. The pressure was reported to be extreme on Kubiak waiting to see if Brown would make it to the 26th slot. That alone says volumes about how badly they wanted to give Gibbs a LT to work with. I'm glad they got their man. I'll bet Gibbs is too. With Brown being a 1st rounder Gibbs might be in his a$$ even more. Break em down and build em up.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by bckey

I'm happy with the Brown Pick. I think what bothered me the most was that Rick Smith and Gary Kubiak seem to have committed themselves to drafting a LT in the 1st round no matter what. It looks like getting Gibbs to come out of retirement heavily influenced their decision making. Maybe they felt obligated because of this and also a little pressure because of the short time most of us think Gibbs will be with the Texans. This type of thinking can cause you to reach or mortgage the farm to move up to get a player you really want badly. Luckily we have the one of the smartest GMs around.

This article makes drafting Brown in the first a little against the norm for Gibbs.

Gibbs, 59, crafted great offensive lines mostly with players other teams had no use for. Unlike just about every other coach, Gibbs didn't lobby to have his team select players for him in the high rounds. He preferred the leftovers, players who have something to prove. Gibbs tore these players down further, and then built them up.

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/m...25/ai_69404525

The Texans came out with a pretty good draft imho. At #18 Smith must have thought that Duane Brown would have been a reach. He was savy enough to trade back and turn the pick into 3 players. The pressure was reported to be extreme on Kubiak waiting to see if Brown would make it to the 26th slot. That alone says volumes about how badly they wanted to give Gibbs a LT to work with. I'm glad they got their man. I'll bet Gibbs is too. With Brown being a 1st rounder Gibbs might be in his a$$ even more. Break em down and build em up.

I look at this way. If Brown was thought by most to be no more than a
second or even third-rounder, but if eventually he turns out to be our starting
LT he's more than worth it. In retrospect, to me Charles Spencer was worth the 26th pick in the 2006 Draft even though we didn't take him until the third round. And of course his very unfortuante injury, which could actually end his career, is a moot issue.

[Joshua]

In looking at the cup as half-full, if Gibbs is known for making good linemen out of later round picks, and Brown should have been a 3rd rounder, then we got Gibbs just what he wanted.