While I haven't done the math, my guess is that virtually every year 50-60% of 1st round picks fail to live up to expectations and a good 30-40% qualify as busts. With that said, if you can avoid having your 1st round pick fall into either of these categories, it was a good pick. Period. All this talk about "reaches" is somewhat silly to me, aside from the possibility of being able to trade back (and get more picks) and still get your guy. It completely discounts the extremely high percentage of picks which fail. Just get your pick right. It doesn't matter where in the draft you do it.
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05-02-2008, 09:01 AM
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