Case Keenum: Career Backup or Something More?

[Arky]

Originally Posted by Keith

Split the Case discussion from the Jags game thread.


I don't expect the sensational, though it seems Case expects it of himself. Case needs to learn to throw the ball away instead of taking a 16 yard loss and a sack. Reading blitzes, knowing when to throw away... these are things young QBs always struggle with, so combine that with the injuries on offense, and I can understand why the results are what they have been and why people want to give Case a huge benefit of the doubt.

I think he wants to do a good job and maybe he's trying to hard to make plays. He beat the blitz a few times yesterday but no one seems to want to acknowledge that. The Jags backed off and only rushed 4 most of the time. Did you notice all the misfires yesterday? Receiver runs one way, QB throws another? Can't really speculate who is at fault here, but let's say it's 50:50. Reps and practice fix that. He was sacked twice against the Jags - not atrocious for a QB in any game (though admittedly, his sacks are big'uns).

I don't lay the 0-5 record on Case at all, those first three were there to win, and the team as a whole is responsible. But losing at home to the Raiders and Jaguars? When the opposition had Henne and someone named McLovin? Those "backyard" or what I call "flag football" plays sure seem to have dried up lately. Not a fluke. Teams adjust. This is why it was dangerous to prorate Keenum's stats after just 3 games.

The Raiders are not pushovers and the Jags have nothing to lose. The Texans are too dysfunctional to compete these days... Wait till the Pats come in this Sunday...

Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, etc. many more have been playing backyard/flag football for years. You make it sound like a "bad" thing. Keenum's ability to extend plays is a good thing.....and I expect it to return - if not with us, then with another team. There is absolutely no way a secondary can prepare for it. There is no adjustment that can be made for it. A good defense will try to prevent it from getting started..... This last game, seemed to me, he was "instructed" to be more Schaub-like....

And "dangerous" to prorate his stats after 3.5 games? Not the adjective I would have used.... "premature" maybe.... Some of us consider it "ludicrous" to call a guy a career back-up after 4 or 5 games but that's probably another situation where "premature" works better....

I'm just judging based on what I see. One stat I find telling in my assessment: Keenum is completing just 47.5% of his passes between 1-10 yards through 59 attempts. Yikes.

Not sure where you get your stats but I'll assume they are correct. This is a bit puzzling because I believe Keenum was known for his accurate short and intermediate game in college. What it suggests is his vertical game is much better. Keenum is currently at 55% completion overall as a first-year-in-the- NFL-action-starter (some get annoyed when one shortens it to "rookie" as he is not technically a rookie). Andrew Luck completed a whopping 54.1% of his passes in his rookie year...(And it's a real shame the Texans have lost their mojo this year as the Colts just ain't that good).

Here's the deal: I got a problem with the Case critics pointing out his flaws like piranhas on a cattle carcass. In their eyes, he can do no right (though they've got plenty of ammo the last couple of games). I'm here for balance.

QB development can take years. Drew Brees was a decent QB laboring in San Diego sometimes sharing starts with Doug Flutie. This didn't stop the Chargers from drafting Phillip Rivers. It was not till he was traded/signed with Sean Payton and the Saints that he turned into Drew effing Brees.... Some of us believe Keenum can at least reach the "decent starting QB" level....

[WMH]

Originally Posted by Arky

Some of us believe Keenum can at least reach the "decent starting QB" level....

This is exactly why I'd like to pursue one of the top end QB's in this years draft. Decent ain't cutting it in a QB driven league. I'd rather them swing and miss than plod around another 8 years.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by WMH

This is exactly why I'd like to pursue one of the top end QB's in this years draft. Decent ain't cutting it in a QB driven league. I'd rather them swing and miss than plod around another 8 years.

Swing and miss is very possible. How long does a swing and miss take? Geno Smith is more than likely going to waste 2 or 3 years of the Jets time....

[WMH]

Originally Posted by Arky

Swing and miss is very possible. How long does a swing and miss take? Geno Smith is more than likely going to waste 2 or 3 years of the Jets time....

Case by case basis.
Rule of thumb (or my wild a$$ guesses)
1st & 2nd rders. 2-3 years sounds about right.
3rd & 4th rders - 1-2 years.
4th+ from when they get to play - 1 year

Not saying I agree with that, just what I have seen thru the years with just about all franchises.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Arky

I think he wants to do a good job and maybe he's trying to hard to make plays. He beat the blitz a few times yesterday but no one seems to want to acknowledge that. The Jags backed off and only rushed 4 most of the time. Did you notice all the misfires yesterday? Receiver runs one way, QB throws another? Can't really speculate who is at fault here, but let's say it's 50:50. Reps and practice fix that. He was sacked twice against the Jags - not atrocious for a QB in any game (though admittedly, his sacks are big'uns).



The Raiders are not pushovers and the Jags have nothing to lose. The Texans are too dysfunctional to compete these days... Wait till the Pats come in this Sunday...

Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, etc. many more have been playing backyard/flag football for years. You make it sound like a "bad" thing. Keenum's ability to extend plays is a good thing.....and I expect it to return - if not with us, then with another team. There is absolutely no way a secondary can prepare for it. There is no adjustment that can be made for it. A good defense will try to prevent it from getting started..... This last game, seemed to me, he was "instructed" to be more Schaub-like....

And "dangerous" to prorate his stats after 3.5 games? Not the adjective I would have used.... "premature" maybe.... Some of us consider it "ludicrous" to call a guy a career back-up after 4 or 5 games but that's probably another situation where "premature" works better....



Not sure where you get your stats but I'll assume they are correct. This is a bit puzzling because I believe Keenum was known for his accurate short and intermediate game in college. What it suggests is his vertical game is much better. Keenum is currently at 55% completion overall as a first-year-in-the- NFL-action-starter (some get annoyed when one shortens it to "rookie" as he is not technically a rookie). Andrew Luck completed a whopping 54.1% of his passes in his rookie year...(And it's a real shame the Texans have lost their mojo this year as the Colts just ain't that good).

Here's the deal: I got a problem with the Case critics pointing out his flaws like piranhas on a cattle carcass. In their eyes, he can do no right (though they've got plenty of ammo the last couple of games). I'm here for balance.

QB development can take years. Drew Brees was a decent QB laboring in San Diego sometimes sharing starts with Doug Flutie. This didn't stop the Chargers from drafting Phillip Rivers. It was not till he was traded/signed with Sean Payton and the Saints that he turned into Drew effing Brees.... Some of us believe Keenum can at least reach the "decent starting QB" level....

You've mentioned before Case critics attacking him. It's not happening on this site so there is no need for you to try to balance things.

Referring to the thread title, I think he is more than a career backup and could have a 2009-2011 pre-injury Matt Schaub ceiling under the right circumstances (top 8-16 starting QB).

[Arky]

Originally Posted by barrett

You've mentioned before Case critics attacking him. It's not happening on this site so there is no need for you to try to balance things.

Actually, I'll do whatever the hell I want, barrett. Just include me in the whiny, complaining, venting fan category if it makes you feel better....

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Arky

Actually, I'll do whatever the hell I want, barrett. Just include me in the whiny, complaining, venting fan category if it makes you feel better....

You can say all you want as often as you want (I know I do). You simply won't be balancing anything.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by barrett

You can say all you want as often as you want (I know I do). You simply won't be balancing anything.

Maybe not for this forum's consciousness. But I'll feel a lot better.

I think there's many people like me that hit all the Texan forums. It's hard not to be affected by some of the predominate chatter....

[Keith]

Originally Posted by barrett

My point was simply there are lots of QBs this year and we won't find ourselves looking at Carr as our only option in some kind of cosmic joke. Additionally, if Kubiak is gone, not one member of our organization who got rid of big brother would still be here (unless our ST coach survives another HC hiring).

Well, Bob McNair is still here. And his minority owners. I don't know for sure, but I can imagine the feeling is mutual that the Carr's and the Texans prefer to avoid each other outside of meaningless pleasantries exchanged. I've been fearing lil' Carr on the draft board since I started a thread in September. It would not surprise me at all if lil' Carr makes a big move up general scouts' boards between now and April. David wasn't much more of a 2nd or 3rd round pick early into his final season at Fresno, too.

Originally Posted by Arky

This last game, seemed to me, he was "instructed" to be more Schaub-like....

Blame Kubiak. No argument.

Originally Posted by Arky

And "dangerous" to prorate his stats after 3.5 games? Not the adjective I would have used.... "premature" maybe.... Some of us consider it "ludicrous" to call a guy a career back-up after 4 or 5 games but that's probably another situation where "premature" works better....

I used dangerous in the sense that making long-term decisions based on prorated stats is beyond risky. Calling him a career backup may sound like me doing the same, but all I can say is that stats (prorated or not) have little to do with my opinion on this... I'm letting my eyeballs drive my thinking here. That split stat on completion % is available on ESPN, Yahoo, etc... anywhere split stats are posted.

Originally Posted by Arky

QB development can take years.

Agreed. I've written here numerous times about how QB's in Kubiak's system really take three years to pick it up. So now Case is somewhere in between year 1 and year 2. Problem is Kubiak is presumably gone after the season, and a new HC is probably not going ignore a 1st round QB prospect in favor of Keenum. Keeping Keenum here where he is loved by the locals would be a tough way to bring along a new rookie QB as well.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by Keith

............... I've written here numerous times about how QB's in Kubiak's system really take three years to pick it up. So now Case is somewhere in between year 1 and year 2. Problem is Kubiak is presumably gone after the season, and a new HC is probably not going ignore a 1st round QB prospect in favor of Keenum. Keeping Keenum here where he is loved by the locals would be a tough way to bring along a new rookie QB as well.

Well, if he wants to stick around in Houston, he needs to start showing progress, pronto. His play in his first 3 losses (KC, Colts, Cards) was more than acceptable, IMO. Against the Raiders and Jags, not so much. I saw a stat in the Chron today.... Avg margin of defeat in Keenum's 5 losses = 3.8 pts. Avg margin of defeat in the previous 4 losses (Schaub) = 20 pts.

Provided he's the starter the rest of the year, the New England and the Denver defenses might be too smart for him at this stage so it will be interesting how he does in those games. Seeing the Jags and Colts a second time - these are less scarier and will be chances to show that he's learning. The Titans defense is top 12 and will be another good test.

As mentioned, if he wants to survive a possible/probable regime change in Houston, it's up to him. By all accounts, he's supposed to be a quick study. An incoming coach may want to draft a QB, but keep Keenum around for competition and continuity.... Don't know about you, but if I was an incoming coach and asked to pick one of Schaub/Yates/Keenum, I'm taking Keenum....

[HPF Bob]

Originally Posted by Keith

your list ignores that Denver, KC, and Arizona each have 1-1 guys as their QBs (even though they didn't draft them).

By design. The premise (as I see it) is that we MUST draft a QB for next year in the first round. Denver, KC and Arizona didn't do that even though they got, admittedly, 1-1 quarterbacks. They found other ways to get one.

With a new regime presumably coming in, a new QB at the top just seems all the more likely.

And what if it is Sumlin or Briles - two coaches who already have a relationship with Keenum and might want to develop him further?

[HPF Bob]

Originally Posted by popanot

Carr is moving up fast and some think he has best arm and is the most conventional as far as normal NFL QB standards. He's been white-hot lately and recently accepted an invite to the Senior Bowl, which could put him right in the top 2 mix if he shows well there. If it came down to it and it's determined Carr's the best prospect for us, I say take him. He'll get over it.

Just don't give him #8. We've had problems with QBs who wear that number.

[Keith]

Bumping this.

Keenum had by most accounts one of his better games against the Pats, though I don't change my opinion on him. He did not read the defense well... often locking onto his primary receiver. He lacks an internal clock. Strangely, the Pats didn't even blitz him that much... blitzes have been very effective in slowing him down, too.

Granted, I am way behind in watching many of the college prospects, but at this point, I'd rather roll the dice with a Teddy Bridgewater if given the opportunity. I like what I've seen in terms of tools. Would like to know him a little better, but there seems to be better upside with Bridgewater than with Keenum.

I can see how some things can be improved with more experience for Case, like his pocket awareness, blitz reads, short-range accuracy... I just don't see how his ceiling is higher than a prospect like Bridgewater.

Hey, I could be wrong... who knows. I thought Cam Newton was going to be a bust.

[cadams]

Originally Posted by Keith

Bumping this.

Hey, I could be wrong... who knows. I thought Cam Newton was going to be a bust.

as did i, but 32 teams also didn't pass on newton for 7 consecutive rounds

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Keith

Bumping this.

Keenum had by most accounts one of his better games against the Pats, though I don't change my opinion on him. He did not read the defense well... often locking onto his primary receiver. He lacks an internal clock. Strangely, the Pats didn't even blitz him that much... blitzes have been very effective in slowing him down, too.

Granted, I am way behind in watching many of the college prospects, but at this point, I'd rather roll the dice with a Teddy Bridgewater if given the opportunity. I like what I've seen in terms of tools. Would like to know him a little better, but there seems to be better upside with Bridgewater than with Keenum.

I can see how some things can be improved with more experience for Case, like his pocket awareness, blitz reads, short-range accuracy... I just don't see how his ceiling is higher than a prospect like Bridgewater.

Hey, I could be wrong... who knows. I thought Cam Newton was going to be a bust.

I do not like Bridgewater. He has not been awesome against poor competition and that concerns me. UH largely shut him down and that concerns me. For a lower division guy he doesn't really look the part and appears very slim built, that concerns me.

As much as I'm in favor of a new QB, I don't like Bridgewater or Mariota at all. Mariota seems like a faster Locker. He cannot pass unless he can run, which means he cannot really pass.

I am intrigued by Manziel and don't really know too much about Hundley other than he looks the part. I liked Boyd coming into the season but he was abysmal against FSU.

I don't think there is a QB that I would feel good about at #1 overall, especially since it appears I could have a guy like Boyd at #33. If we traded down or were drafting between 5-10 I would be tempted to go Manziel, but I don't think I could pass on Clowney (or possibly the UCLA DE?) if I was drafting 1 or 2.

If a new coach had the confidence to keep Keenum as a short term option because we went QB in round 2 and didn't want to rush a guy like Boyd onto the field I would not complain. But a new coach would need a pretty big pair to have the hometown hero to be measured up against his new draft pick.

Plus if I was Keenum I think I'd want to be somewhere that didn't have the QB of the future on the roster yet (a backup wherever Kubs or a shanahan lands perhaps?).

[HPF Bob]

Keenum is currently 19th in NFL QB rating (86.1) which is better than Andy Dalton, Alex Smith, RG3, Carson Palmer, Ryan Tannehill and Andrew Luck among others. He is next to last, however, among qualifiers in completion percentage (54.2%). He is 10th in yards per attempt (7.54) despite all the incompletes. Philly's Nick Foles has an ungodly 125.2 QB rating, best in the NFL and 12 points higher than Peyton Mannings who is second.

ESPN's Total QBR ranks Keenum 30th but still higher than Eli Manning and Matt Schaub.

[Keith]

The top QBs in the league excel at reading defenses and can often perform better when blitzed. I have no idea whether Bridgewater or any rookie will be capable of that; hence the risk especially if using a 1.1 pick on one.

That said, I have yet to see this demonstrated by Keenum. Granted, he has six games under less than ideal circumstances, but I'm not quite sure his skills indicate this will someday be a strength for him, either. Keenum needs to (a) recognize the blitz, (b) have an internal clock to find his hot route, and (c) throw the pass accurately. Be honest... has Keenum shown this? Or has he been just buying time with his still-healthy feet hoping his HOF WR (or his 1st round WR) finds a way open 6 seconds after the snap, holding onto the ball even if it means taking a sack for a 9-yard loss?

Brees, PManning, Brady... the teams that have elite success over an extended period of time possess a QB with these traits. That's what I want for the Texans. Easier written than done of course, but if Keenum is not that guy and perhaps that guy is available in this draft, that's what I'd be looking for.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Keith

The top QBs in the league excel at reading defenses and can often perform better when blitzed. I have no idea whether Bridgewater or any rookie will be capable of that; hence the risk especially if using a 1.1 pick on one.

That said, I have yet to see this demonstrated by Keenum. Granted, he has six games under less than ideal circumstances, but I'm not quite sure his skills indicate this will someday be a strength for him, either. Keenum needs to (a) recognize the blitz, (b) have an internal clock to find his hot route, and (c) throw the pass accurately. Be honest... has Keenum shown this? Or has he been just buying time with his still-healthy feet hoping his HOF WR (or his 1st round WR) finds a way open 6 seconds after the snap, holding onto the ball even if it means taking a sack for a 9-yard loss?

Brees, PManning, Brady... the teams that have elite success over an extended period of time possess a QB with these traits. That's what I want for the Texans. Easier written than done of course, but if Keenum is not that guy and perhaps that guy is available in this draft, that's what I'd be looking for.

Or look at Russel Wilson in the game currently airing. They talked about how he loved being blitzed. And then he beat an 8 man all out blitz with a downfield throw that came about 1 second after the snap. He didn't wait for the guy to be open (or even know if he was). He made the correct pre-snap read and trusted it. Keenum did this once in the Jacksonville game and had a nice conversion because of it. But in general, he is extremely slow to make decisions with the ball. The timing throws come out late, and against the blitz he thinks escape first rather than get the ball out.

It is unfair to compare Keenum to Brady and Manning, but Wilson is younger than Keenum. Keenum is already 25 years old (almost 26). This is not a fresh faced rookie. He had 6 years at UH and now almost 2 full years in this system. He is behind only in terms of NFL reps. I would not expect the same sort of learning curve as with a 22 year old rookie who had 6 starts.

[Arky]

Roger Staubach had Navy commitments (or something like that) and didn't make it to the NFL until age 27. He didn't get cranked up till age 29 and then had a nice run all the way till age 37. Age schmage.... not really worth nit-picking over. Bigger factors are can he play, can he pass worth a damn, does he show the ability to pick up on things fairly quick? If he (Keenum) answers these with "yeses" by the end of the year, got to keep him around.

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Ya know, Andrew Luck is in his second year and not exactly setting the world on fire......Statistically, he's Joe Average..... The "next Peyton Manning" has more work to do.... However, I think most people agree that watching him play, one can see he has a very good "toolkit"....

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Drafting a QB is fine by me but just be prepared to go through the same thing (nit picking, pros and cons, lovers/haters etc.) we are going through with Keenum when he arrives. Someone in another forum I read made the point that a top 5 drafted QB is too big of an investment to leave sitting on the bench..... This QB will more or less be handed the keys sooner rather than later.....

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With Keenum, I see a Texas boy that could probably tell you a few stories about those Friday Night Lights (and Saturday Night Lights for that matter). Rightly or wrongly, I (still) see some good things lurking..... I (still) see upside.... MNF announcers speaking about Wilson and Brees made it a point to say a QB's height doesn't mean what it used to. Provided he's the starter the rest of the year, Keenum is going to be given a mostly 10 game audition. For an undrafted QB and despite the circumstances, that's all one can ask for......

[HPF Bob]

I see good and bad with Keenum and the bad is mostly fixable with a full camp of practicing with the regulars instead of getting the table scrap reps. Kubiak says Keenum is a great film study and picks up knowledge rather fast.

Right now, he's looking downfield while Schaub was looking to dump pass. If there are shorter routes or designed screens, he isn't finding them.

The New England game was actually the first one for which I could fairly evaluate Keenum because the OL gave him time to throw and the running game worked well enough that the Patriots had to respect it, making play action more effective.

He's only had three picks so far and two of them were because he threw while getting hit. But he's not really accurate and his receivers don't look comfortable trying to catch him. That comes with timing and timing comes from a full off-season throwing hundreds of passes to the receivers where they run the exact same route to the exact same spot with the ball arriving at the exact proper time. You can't really get that down during the regular season. You have to work at that all off-season.

I think there's about a 40% chance of Keenum being a solid NFL quarterback if he's allowed to develop but I'm doubting he'll get that chance in Houston.