Case Keenum: Career Backup or Something More?

[barrett]

Originally Posted by popanot

The sad thing is, if we don't end up with the #1 overall pick where Bridgewater looks like the top QB prospect, it appears Derek Carr is the next best thing and I would think chances are pretty slim we draft him. I remember hearing a report somewhere that he has hard feelings about how Houston treated David and that he wouldn't want to come here.

Who wants to make a wager this is exactly how it plays out? The Texans win a game and lose the #1 overall pick and Carr is sitting there the obvious QB choice. It would be so appropriate based on this city's sports history.

ESPN has Mariota as the top QB and #3 overall. Bridgewater is next at #6, with Manziel and Hundley later in the round. Carr is not listed amongst the top 32 prospects. I don't think I've heard of Carr as a 1st round pick anywhere.

The truth is that only Manziel is even intriguing to me out of that group. I watched Bridgewater look bad against a UH defense that gave up about 700 yards to BYU and has like 2 upperclassmen on the 2 deep. Mariota cannot pass unless he can run which means he cannot pass. Hundley I know almost nothing about except that he looks the part.

[popanot]

Originally Posted by barrett

ESPN has Mariota as the top QB and #3 overall. Bridgewater is next at #6, with Manziel and Hundley later in the round. Carr is not listed amongst the top 32 prospects. I don't think I've heard of Carr as a 1st round pick anywhere.

Mariota, Hundley and Manziel are all underclassmen and haven't decided to enter the draft yet. It's probably safe to say Manziel will, but I'm not so sure about Mariota and Hundley. Even adding those 3 into the mix, CBS Sports currently has Carr listed as the 4th best QB prospect and 15th best overall prospect. I've seen a few mocks that have him going top-10 (at least 2 of them I read recently have him going top-5). Are any of these sources (including ESPN) accurate? Who knows, but everything I've read over the last few weeks indicate Carr is moving up fast and some think he has best arm and is the most conventional as far as normal NFL QB standards. He's been white-hot lately and recently accepted an invite to the Senior Bowl, which could put him right in the top 2 mix if he shows well there. If it came down to it and it's determined Carr's the best prospect for us, I say take him. He'll get over it.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by popanot

Mariota, Hundley and Manziel are all underclassmen and haven't decided to enter the draft yet. It's probably safe to say Manziel will, but I'm not so sure about Mariota and Hundley. Even adding those 3 into the mix, CBS Sports currently has Carr listed as the 4th best QB prospect and 15th best overall prospect. I've seen a few mocks that have him going top-10 (at least 2 of them I read recently have him going top-5). Are any of these sources (including ESPN) accurate? Who knows, but everything I've read over the last few weeks indicate Carr is moving up fast and some think he has best arm and is the most conventional as far as normal NFL QB standards. He's been white-hot lately and recently accepted an invite to the Senior Bowl, which could put him right in the top 2 mix if he shows well there. If it came down to it and it's determined Carr's the best prospect for us, I say take him. He'll get over it.

My point was simply there are lots of QBs this year and we won't find ourselves looking at Carr as our only option in some kind of cosmic joke. Additionally, if Kubiak is gone, not one member of our organization who got rid of big brother would still be here (unless our ST coach survives another HC hiring).

[popanot]

Originally Posted by barrett

My point was simply there are lots of QBs this year and we won't find ourselves looking at Carr as our only option in some kind of cosmic joke. Additionally, if Kubiak is gone, not one member of our organization who got rid of big brother would still be here (unless our ST coach survives another HC hiring).

I'm not dismissing anything as far as cosmic jokes when it comes to this sports town.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by Keith

Split the Case discussion from the Jags game thread.


I don't expect the sensational, though it seems Case expects it of himself. Case needs to learn to throw the ball away instead of taking a 16 yard loss and a sack. Reading blitzes, knowing when to throw away... these are things young QBs always struggle with, so combine that with the injuries on offense, and I can understand why the results are what they have been and why people want to give Case a huge benefit of the doubt.

I think he wants to do a good job and maybe he's trying to hard to make plays. He beat the blitz a few times yesterday but no one seems to want to acknowledge that. The Jags backed off and only rushed 4 most of the time. Did you notice all the misfires yesterday? Receiver runs one way, QB throws another? Can't really speculate who is at fault here, but let's say it's 50:50. Reps and practice fix that. He was sacked twice against the Jags - not atrocious for a QB in any game (though admittedly, his sacks are big'uns).

I don't lay the 0-5 record on Case at all, those first three were there to win, and the team as a whole is responsible. But losing at home to the Raiders and Jaguars? When the opposition had Henne and someone named McLovin? Those "backyard" or what I call "flag football" plays sure seem to have dried up lately. Not a fluke. Teams adjust. This is why it was dangerous to prorate Keenum's stats after just 3 games.

The Raiders are not pushovers and the Jags have nothing to lose. The Texans are too dysfunctional to compete these days... Wait till the Pats come in this Sunday...

Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, etc. many more have been playing backyard/flag football for years. You make it sound like a "bad" thing. Keenum's ability to extend plays is a good thing.....and I expect it to return - if not with us, then with another team. There is absolutely no way a secondary can prepare for it. There is no adjustment that can be made for it. A good defense will try to prevent it from getting started..... This last game, seemed to me, he was "instructed" to be more Schaub-like....

And "dangerous" to prorate his stats after 3.5 games? Not the adjective I would have used.... "premature" maybe.... Some of us consider it "ludicrous" to call a guy a career back-up after 4 or 5 games but that's probably another situation where "premature" works better....

I'm just judging based on what I see. One stat I find telling in my assessment: Keenum is completing just 47.5% of his passes between 1-10 yards through 59 attempts. Yikes.

Not sure where you get your stats but I'll assume they are correct. This is a bit puzzling because I believe Keenum was known for his accurate short and intermediate game in college. What it suggests is his vertical game is much better. Keenum is currently at 55% completion overall as a first-year-in-the- NFL-action-starter (some get annoyed when one shortens it to "rookie" as he is not technically a rookie). Andrew Luck completed a whopping 54.1% of his passes in his rookie year...(And it's a real shame the Texans have lost their mojo this year as the Colts just ain't that good).

Here's the deal: I got a problem with the Case critics pointing out his flaws like piranhas on a cattle carcass. In their eyes, he can do no right (though they've got plenty of ammo the last couple of games). I'm here for balance.

QB development can take years. Drew Brees was a decent QB laboring in San Diego sometimes sharing starts with Doug Flutie. This didn't stop the Chargers from drafting Phillip Rivers. It was not till he was traded/signed with Sean Payton and the Saints that he turned into Drew effing Brees.... Some of us believe Keenum can at least reach the "decent starting QB" level....

[WMH]

Originally Posted by Arky

Some of us believe Keenum can at least reach the "decent starting QB" level....

This is exactly why I'd like to pursue one of the top end QB's in this years draft. Decent ain't cutting it in a QB driven league. I'd rather them swing and miss than plod around another 8 years.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by WMH

This is exactly why I'd like to pursue one of the top end QB's in this years draft. Decent ain't cutting it in a QB driven league. I'd rather them swing and miss than plod around another 8 years.

Swing and miss is very possible. How long does a swing and miss take? Geno Smith is more than likely going to waste 2 or 3 years of the Jets time....

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Arky

I think he wants to do a good job and maybe he's trying to hard to make plays. He beat the blitz a few times yesterday but no one seems to want to acknowledge that. The Jags backed off and only rushed 4 most of the time. Did you notice all the misfires yesterday? Receiver runs one way, QB throws another? Can't really speculate who is at fault here, but let's say it's 50:50. Reps and practice fix that. He was sacked twice against the Jags - not atrocious for a QB in any game (though admittedly, his sacks are big'uns).



The Raiders are not pushovers and the Jags have nothing to lose. The Texans are too dysfunctional to compete these days... Wait till the Pats come in this Sunday...

Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, etc. many more have been playing backyard/flag football for years. You make it sound like a "bad" thing. Keenum's ability to extend plays is a good thing.....and I expect it to return - if not with us, then with another team. There is absolutely no way a secondary can prepare for it. There is no adjustment that can be made for it. A good defense will try to prevent it from getting started..... This last game, seemed to me, he was "instructed" to be more Schaub-like....

And "dangerous" to prorate his stats after 3.5 games? Not the adjective I would have used.... "premature" maybe.... Some of us consider it "ludicrous" to call a guy a career back-up after 4 or 5 games but that's probably another situation where "premature" works better....



Not sure where you get your stats but I'll assume they are correct. This is a bit puzzling because I believe Keenum was known for his accurate short and intermediate game in college. What it suggests is his vertical game is much better. Keenum is currently at 55% completion overall as a first-year-in-the- NFL-action-starter (some get annoyed when one shortens it to "rookie" as he is not technically a rookie). Andrew Luck completed a whopping 54.1% of his passes in his rookie year...(And it's a real shame the Texans have lost their mojo this year as the Colts just ain't that good).

Here's the deal: I got a problem with the Case critics pointing out his flaws like piranhas on a cattle carcass. In their eyes, he can do no right (though they've got plenty of ammo the last couple of games). I'm here for balance.

QB development can take years. Drew Brees was a decent QB laboring in San Diego sometimes sharing starts with Doug Flutie. This didn't stop the Chargers from drafting Phillip Rivers. It was not till he was traded/signed with Sean Payton and the Saints that he turned into Drew effing Brees.... Some of us believe Keenum can at least reach the "decent starting QB" level....

You've mentioned before Case critics attacking him. It's not happening on this site so there is no need for you to try to balance things.

Referring to the thread title, I think he is more than a career backup and could have a 2009-2011 pre-injury Matt Schaub ceiling under the right circumstances (top 8-16 starting QB).

[Arky]

Originally Posted by barrett

You've mentioned before Case critics attacking him. It's not happening on this site so there is no need for you to try to balance things.

Actually, I'll do whatever the hell I want, barrett. Just include me in the whiny, complaining, venting fan category if it makes you feel better....

[HPF Bob]

Originally Posted by popanot

Carr is moving up fast and some think he has best arm and is the most conventional as far as normal NFL QB standards. He's been white-hot lately and recently accepted an invite to the Senior Bowl, which could put him right in the top 2 mix if he shows well there. If it came down to it and it's determined Carr's the best prospect for us, I say take him. He'll get over it.

Just don't give him #8. We've had problems with QBs who wear that number.

[Keith]

Bumping this.

Keenum had by most accounts one of his better games against the Pats, though I don't change my opinion on him. He did not read the defense well... often locking onto his primary receiver. He lacks an internal clock. Strangely, the Pats didn't even blitz him that much... blitzes have been very effective in slowing him down, too.

Granted, I am way behind in watching many of the college prospects, but at this point, I'd rather roll the dice with a Teddy Bridgewater if given the opportunity. I like what I've seen in terms of tools. Would like to know him a little better, but there seems to be better upside with Bridgewater than with Keenum.

I can see how some things can be improved with more experience for Case, like his pocket awareness, blitz reads, short-range accuracy... I just don't see how his ceiling is higher than a prospect like Bridgewater.

Hey, I could be wrong... who knows. I thought Cam Newton was going to be a bust.

[cadams]

Originally Posted by Keith

Bumping this.

Hey, I could be wrong... who knows. I thought Cam Newton was going to be a bust.

as did i, but 32 teams also didn't pass on newton for 7 consecutive rounds

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Keith

Bumping this.

Keenum had by most accounts one of his better games against the Pats, though I don't change my opinion on him. He did not read the defense well... often locking onto his primary receiver. He lacks an internal clock. Strangely, the Pats didn't even blitz him that much... blitzes have been very effective in slowing him down, too.

Granted, I am way behind in watching many of the college prospects, but at this point, I'd rather roll the dice with a Teddy Bridgewater if given the opportunity. I like what I've seen in terms of tools. Would like to know him a little better, but there seems to be better upside with Bridgewater than with Keenum.

I can see how some things can be improved with more experience for Case, like his pocket awareness, blitz reads, short-range accuracy... I just don't see how his ceiling is higher than a prospect like Bridgewater.

Hey, I could be wrong... who knows. I thought Cam Newton was going to be a bust.

I do not like Bridgewater. He has not been awesome against poor competition and that concerns me. UH largely shut him down and that concerns me. For a lower division guy he doesn't really look the part and appears very slim built, that concerns me.

As much as I'm in favor of a new QB, I don't like Bridgewater or Mariota at all. Mariota seems like a faster Locker. He cannot pass unless he can run, which means he cannot really pass.

I am intrigued by Manziel and don't really know too much about Hundley other than he looks the part. I liked Boyd coming into the season but he was abysmal against FSU.

I don't think there is a QB that I would feel good about at #1 overall, especially since it appears I could have a guy like Boyd at #33. If we traded down or were drafting between 5-10 I would be tempted to go Manziel, but I don't think I could pass on Clowney (or possibly the UCLA DE?) if I was drafting 1 or 2.

If a new coach had the confidence to keep Keenum as a short term option because we went QB in round 2 and didn't want to rush a guy like Boyd onto the field I would not complain. But a new coach would need a pretty big pair to have the hometown hero to be measured up against his new draft pick.

Plus if I was Keenum I think I'd want to be somewhere that didn't have the QB of the future on the roster yet (a backup wherever Kubs or a shanahan lands perhaps?).

[HPF Bob]

Keenum is currently 19th in NFL QB rating (86.1) which is better than Andy Dalton, Alex Smith, RG3, Carson Palmer, Ryan Tannehill and Andrew Luck among others. He is next to last, however, among qualifiers in completion percentage (54.2%). He is 10th in yards per attempt (7.54) despite all the incompletes. Philly's Nick Foles has an ungodly 125.2 QB rating, best in the NFL and 12 points higher than Peyton Mannings who is second.

ESPN's Total QBR ranks Keenum 30th but still higher than Eli Manning and Matt Schaub.

[Keith]

The top QBs in the league excel at reading defenses and can often perform better when blitzed. I have no idea whether Bridgewater or any rookie will be capable of that; hence the risk especially if using a 1.1 pick on one.

That said, I have yet to see this demonstrated by Keenum. Granted, he has six games under less than ideal circumstances, but I'm not quite sure his skills indicate this will someday be a strength for him, either. Keenum needs to (a) recognize the blitz, (b) have an internal clock to find his hot route, and (c) throw the pass accurately. Be honest... has Keenum shown this? Or has he been just buying time with his still-healthy feet hoping his HOF WR (or his 1st round WR) finds a way open 6 seconds after the snap, holding onto the ball even if it means taking a sack for a 9-yard loss?

Brees, PManning, Brady... the teams that have elite success over an extended period of time possess a QB with these traits. That's what I want for the Texans. Easier written than done of course, but if Keenum is not that guy and perhaps that guy is available in this draft, that's what I'd be looking for.