On Players' Health: Luck vs. Skill

[Bigtinylittle]

Originally Posted by dadmg

Sorry, I really should clarified what I was saying there. I almost did when I looked at it before posting, but I was in a hurry.

I was trying to paraphrase Will Carroll who specializes in reporting injuries (he's popped up on a few sites the last few years with regular columns, notably SI & Football Outsiders.) Namely the concept is that some athletes are more prone to injury than others and that those who can't stay healthy are pruned out at each level of play. If a player has a chronic problem staying healthy, its not just bad luck. When I was trying to search for a quote to better explain what I was trying to say, I came across this from FO's Quick Reads column which was likely written by Carroll (many of the excerpts in these columns come from emails the FO writers exchange back and forth):

Now, I hope they're wrong about Schaub, but this is an observation that's been made by those here as well. Going back to the original player I was talking about, Cushing didn't miss too many games in his college career, but just looking through his profile on Draft Countdown I see a shoulder injury that knocked him out for most of his freshman year; a strained hamstring/knee cascade that needed surgery in spring of 07, followed by an ankle injury later in the year; then a broken hand, which of course he played through with a cast. That's a pretty large and disparate group of injuries for such a short period of time, especially considering the shorter college seasons and smaller players. I wouldn't completely avoid drafting him, but I'd be wary.

I agree that not all players are equally likely to be injured. But I wouldn't call it a skill, I would prefer to call it situational.

Concerning Schaub, I think his problem is not that he is brittle, rather it is that he is an immobile QB with mediocre-to-bad pass protection. It's not just the number of times he gets sacked, it's that he is a stationary target and defensive players really tee off on him. Some of the hits are brutal. Add to that the fact that he tends to throw to a fair number of routes that require some time to develop. So I definately believe that he is more likely to be injured than most other QBs. And I think it is very important that we improve our pass protection or we may lose him for long periods of time.

Using RB as another example, older backs like Ahman Green are to the point where they have had their bodies ground down by a huge number of hits. Also, healing is a bit slower as they age. So you have a recipe for a back that is going to miss a lot of time. But I don't think of it as a skill that Ahman no longer has. It's just his situation.