On Players' Health: Luck vs. Skill

[Bigtinylittle]

Originally Posted by dadmg

Sorry, I really should clarified what I was saying there. I almost did when I looked at it before posting, but I was in a hurry.

I was trying to paraphrase Will Carroll who specializes in reporting injuries (he's popped up on a few sites the last few years with regular columns, notably SI & Football Outsiders.) Namely the concept is that some athletes are more prone to injury than others and that those who can't stay healthy are pruned out at each level of play. If a player has a chronic problem staying healthy, its not just bad luck. When I was trying to search for a quote to better explain what I was trying to say, I came across this from FO's Quick Reads column which was likely written by Carroll (many of the excerpts in these columns come from emails the FO writers exchange back and forth):

Now, I hope they're wrong about Schaub, but this is an observation that's been made by those here as well. Going back to the original player I was talking about, Cushing didn't miss too many games in his college career, but just looking through his profile on Draft Countdown I see a shoulder injury that knocked him out for most of his freshman year; a strained hamstring/knee cascade that needed surgery in spring of 07, followed by an ankle injury later in the year; then a broken hand, which of course he played through with a cast. That's a pretty large and disparate group of injuries for such a short period of time, especially considering the shorter college seasons and smaller players. I wouldn't completely avoid drafting him, but I'd be wary.

I agree that not all players are equally likely to be injured. But I wouldn't call it a skill, I would prefer to call it situational.

Concerning Schaub, I think his problem is not that he is brittle, rather it is that he is an immobile QB with mediocre-to-bad pass protection. It's not just the number of times he gets sacked, it's that he is a stationary target and defensive players really tee off on him. Some of the hits are brutal. Add to that the fact that he tends to throw to a fair number of routes that require some time to develop. So I definately believe that he is more likely to be injured than most other QBs. And I think it is very important that we improve our pass protection or we may lose him for long periods of time.

Using RB as another example, older backs like Ahman Green are to the point where they have had their bodies ground down by a huge number of hits. Also, healing is a bit slower as they age. So you have a recipe for a back that is going to miss a lot of time. But I don't think of it as a skill that Ahman no longer has. It's just his situation.

[Joshua]

While there is no single variable which can explain all, I don't think there is any doubt that a player's ability to avoid injuries is rather significant. Call it skill, toughness, what have you. For instance, Peyton Manning has been sacked 205 times in his career but he's never missed a start. By comparison, Schaub has missed 10 games in 2 years on 39 sacks. I don't think circumstances alone explain how Manning can weather 166 more sacks than Schaub but never miss a game compared to Schaub's 10. Simply put, there is something about Manning that makes him better at it. There are multiple reasons to point to - his ability to avoid the rush, his ability to get rid of the ball fast, him having a bigger frame for taking the abuse, maybe greater flexibility in his joints, arguably higher pain tolerance. I don't consider any of these circumstantial but are all skills he possesses that keep him on the field while others will be in the training room. As you said Bigtinylittle, one of the reasons for Schaub's injuries is how immobile he is. This is a skill (or rather a lack thereof).

[Keith]

Split these posts from the thread about the cutting of Green and Greenwood ...carry on.

[Joshua]

Didn't mean to derail a thread. Responded more out of offseason boredom than anything.

[Keith]

Not a problem at all... just trying to be a good mod in keeping convo's separated.

[Bigtinylittle]

Comparing Peyton to Schaub, the main difference I notice is that although Peyton isn't a fast guy, he adjusts in the pocket much better than Schaub does. I think he does this primarily to buy himself more time, but it also cuts down on those vicious hits that Schaub takes so often.

Early in the game that Schaub was injured, the OL was getting beat so badly that I figured it was only a matter of time before he would be gone. I felt there was no way Schaub was going to make it through that whole game. Unfortunately, I was right.

[dadmg]

Originally Posted by Bigtinylittle

Using RB as another example, older backs like Ahman Green are to the point where they have had their bodies ground down by a huge number of hits. Also, healing is a bit slower as they age. So you have a recipe for a back that is going to miss a lot of time. But I don't think of it as a skill that Ahman no longer has.

You make an excellent point here. I've spent quite a few hours researching running back carry totals and their effects on backs over the last few years and there definitely seems to be a degrading effect. And, while I could say that its just diminishing the player's skill, I think think that's a bit disingenuous. I still believe my initial point has validity, but I think I'm going to reflect a bit on where wear-and-tear fits in things.

[Bigtinylittle]

Originally Posted by dadmg

You make an excellent point here. I've spent quite a few hours researching running back carry totals and their effects on backs over the last few years and there definitely seems to be a degrading effect. And, while I could say that its just diminishing the player's skill, I think think that's a bit disingenuous. I still believe my initial point has validity, but I think I'm going to reflect a bit on where wear-and-tear fits in things.

Because it involves connotations, I'm just a bit uncomfortable with using the term "skill" for this. I think it would be be better to call it something like injury probability.