On Players' Health: Luck vs. Skill

[dadmg]

Originally Posted by Bigtinylittle

I have to part company with you on that last sentence. You're saying Weary's broken leg was a lack of skill? And Dunta's knee? And Tom Brady's missed year? The fact is, every player on our team is just one play away from having his career ended by a freak injury. Football is a brutal game. The players who go throughout their careers without serious injury are the lucky ones.

Sorry, I really should clarified what I was saying there. I almost did when I looked at it before posting, but I was in a hurry.

I was trying to paraphrase Will Carroll who specializes in reporting injuries (he's popped up on a few sites the last few years with regular columns, notably SI & Football Outsiders.) Namely the concept is that some athletes are more prone to injury than others and that those who can't stay healthy are pruned out at each level of play. If a player has a chronic problem staying healthy, its not just bad luck. When I was trying to search for a quote to better explain what I was trying to say, I came across this from FO's Quick Reads column which was likely written by Carroll (many of the excerpts in these columns come from emails the FO writers exchange back and forth):

Some injuries are unlucky, but in general, health is a skill. Like any other skill, it's not infallible, which is why we can say that Tom Brady's really good at staying healthy despite the catastrophic knee injury. Schaub simply doesn't have that skill, and while fans can bemoan the awful luck he has in staying healthy, the reality is simply that he's a brittle quarterback. That's one of the unknowns you get when you trade for a backup quarterback.

Now, I hope they're wrong about Schaub, but this is an observation that's been made by those here as well. Going back to the original player I was talking about, Cushing didn't miss too many games in his college career, but just looking through his profile on Draft Countdown I see a shoulder injury that knocked him out for most of his freshman year; a strained hamstring/knee cascade that needed surgery in spring of 07, followed by an ankle injury later in the year; then a broken hand, which of course he played through with a cast. That's a pretty large and disparate group of injuries for such a short period of time, especially considering the shorter college seasons and smaller players. I wouldn't completely avoid drafting him, but I'd be wary.