The upcoming Tennessee game (12-14-08)

[Arky]

The Tennessee Titans are coming in with the best record in the league and have already clinched but still have a bit of motivation to secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs. It doesn't get any easier for them after the Texans as they face the Steelers @ home and Indy on the road to complete the season. Indy may just want to make a statement in that final game....

The Titans are 3 to 3.5 pt. favorites depending on who you check with.

The Texans need to play a clean game, stop the run and in passing situations, I want to see Kerry Collins running for his life - a lot...

From the they're baaaacckkk department: Gus Johnson and Steve Tasker will handle the play-by-play....

[Mike]

Weather looks really nice. Daytime high of 73, low of 59 chance of showers.
Should be a nice afternoon at Reliant. Can't wait to get there and cheer the hometown boys.

[Nconroe]

It would really be nice to beat the Titans. Seems we have had many close , could've won type games with them over the years with little to show for it up to now.

[nunusguy]

I think we've got a shot this weekend vs. the Titans after the way the Texans played this past Sunday in GB on a short week of prep. This is a "rival game" as they say in college and I expect the Texans to be focused. Then after this weekend I say we shut it down and play, maybe even start rookies like Moulden and Barber and Okam, etc. Lets get a look at them and give them some regular season experience on an extended basis.
Of course Kubiak won't do that. He'll try his damnest to win as many more games as possilble even though the wins would be meaningless in the longer term and will actually decrease the value of the Texans Draft position and unnecessarily raise expectations even higher for the 2009 season.

[Joshua]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

I think we've got a shot this weekend vs. the Titans after the way the Texans played this past Sunday in GB on a short week of prep. This is a "rival game" as they say in college and I expect the Texans to be focused. Then after this weekend I say we shut it down and play, maybe even start rookies like Moulden and Barber and Okam, etc. Lets get a look at them and give them some regular season experience on an extended basis.
Of course Kubiak won't do that. He'll try his damnest to win as many more games as possilble even though the wins would be meaningless in the longer term and will actually decrease the value of the Texans Draft position and unnecessarily raise expectations even higher for the 2009 season.

I'm with Kubiak. While the draft is a team's lifeblood, I think it's more important to try to instill confidence, winning attitude, etc. in the team. If these guys can develop a little swagger and learn a little more about how to put teams away over the final month of the season, I'm willing to drop 4 or 5 spots in the draft for this. Pull up any draft over the last decade and half the 1st round picks are mediocre to busts. Having a top 15 picks does not guarantee anything (except giving an unproven college player a boatload of money).

[papabear]

Originally Posted by Joshua

I'm with Kubiak. While the draft is a team's lifeblood, I think it's more important to try to instill confidence, winning attitude, etc. in the team. If these guys can develop a little swagger and learn a little more about how to put teams away over the final month of the season, I'm willing to drop 4 or 5 spots in the draft for this. Pull up any draft over the last decade and half the 1st round picks are mediocre to busts. Having a top 15 picks does not guarantee anything (except giving an unproven college player a boatload of money).

The idea of losing in the NFL for draft position is ridiculous. Sure, on draft day someone I like will probably go a few spots ahead of us, and I'll be pissed. The fact is though that the success or failure of draft picks is so hit and miss that the only thing being higher in the draft guarantees you is that your will have to spend more money.The NBA is another story because one player can make a huge difference...which is why the NBA went to a lottery system to try and keep teams from tanking.

Outside of the top 5-10 picks the contracts aren't necessarily potential cap killers. I think being a mid to late round pick gives you more flexibility too. Look at how few trades happen with the top picks. I think it's easier to make a move if you want to from the middle of the first round....hopefully down.

[cadams]

Originally Posted by Joshua

I'm with Kubiak. While the draft is a team's lifeblood, I think it's more important to try to instill confidence, winning attitude, etc. in the team. If these guys can develop a little swagger and learn a little more about how to put teams away over the final month of the season, I'm willing to drop 4 or 5 spots in the draft for this. Pull up any draft over the last decade and half the 1st round picks are mediocre to busts. Having a top 15 picks does not guarantee anything (except giving an unproven college player a boatload of money).

agreed, if they could win out i think going into the offseason on a 6 game win streak (or winning 5 of the last 6) would be much more valuable than a few draft spots.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by papabear

The idea of losing in the NFL for draft position is ridiculous. Sure, on draft day someone I like will probably go a few spots ahead of us, and I'll be pissed. The fact is though that the success or failure of draft picks is so hit and miss that the only thing being higher in the draft guarantees you is that your will have to spend more money.The NBA is another story because one player can make a huge difference...which is why the NBA went to a lottery system to try and keep teams from tanking.

Outside of the top 5-10 picks the contracts aren't necessarily potential cap killers. I think being a mid to late round pick gives you more flexibility too. Look at how few trades happen with the top picks. I think it's easier to make a move if you want to from the middle of the first round....hopefully down.

Nobody here is advocating throwing a game or instructing players to perform at something less than maximum effort. But if the reserves can beat whoever
they play against, then great and the younger guys get some important real game experieince and the coaching staff gets an opportunity to evaluate them all at the same time. Anyway, what was the benefit of winning the season finale last year against the Jags when they rested many of their starters ? And it sure as hell wasn't the impetus for a good start this year as we went 0-4 in Sept ! IMO no difference between 8-8 or 7-9 for the '07 season.
And if one would rather be farther back in the Draft order, just trade that first rounder to move back and with the boot maybe you'll get another Steve
Slaton type value like we did with the trade in this year college Draft ?

[Joshua]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

IMO no difference between 8-8 or 7-9 for the '07 season.
And if one would rather be farther back in the Draft order, just trade that first rounder to move back and with the boot maybe you'll get another Steve
Slaton type value like we did with the trade in this year college Draft ?

Well, one difference if we were 7-9 instead of 8-8 last year is that we would have been picking somewhere between 9 and 15, rather than 18. Not sure how the tie-breakers would have fallen but there is a decent chance we would have been able to draft Chris Williams (LZ said several times that the Texans were high on him and would have drafted him if given the opportunity). He then promptly had back surgery and has missed virtually the entire season. Also, with him available, we likely would not have traded back and thus, no Slaton.

[papabear]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

Nobody here is advocating throwing a game or instructing players to perform at something less than maximum effort. But if the reserves can beat whoever
they play against, then great and the younger guys get some important real game experieince and the coaching staff gets an opportunity to evaluate them all at the same time.

I'm not saying that anyone is advocating throwing in the towel. Just making a point.

I'm all for playing the younger players more...as long as they have given the coaches some reason to think they deserve it by practicing well and/or playing well when given the opportunity. Not because I had a guy highly rated on my personal draft board.

Anyway, what was the benefit of winning the season finale last year against the Jags when they rested many of their starters ? And it sure as hell wasn't the impetus for a good start this year as we went 0-4 in Sept ! IMO no difference between 8-8 or 7-9 for the '07 season.

quick pet peeve: We were missing just as many starters as the Jags were, except ours wasn't because of choice. Neither team had anything to play for but pride.

What would have been the benefit of losing it? OK, a higher draft pick...which has just as high as a potential to be a bust as a later pick only with a higher cap cost. Without the benefit of hindsight there's no way that the team, or anyone else, can guarantee that we end up with a better or worse player.

One benefit of having some momentum going into the off season could be in retaining your own free agents. AJ made comments about how tired he was of losing. Does he re-sign if he doesn't like the direction of the team a couple of years ago? Dunta's made similar, even more outspoken comments, and is headed towards free agency. Owen Daniels is probably due a contract extension. It's all unfounded speculation, but I would rather guys like that to end the season with a good feeling about the team so that when they have to decide on whether to sign an extension or test free agency they are more likely to stick around.

And if one would rather be farther back in the Draft order, just trade that first rounder to move back and with the boot maybe you'll get another Steve
Slaton type value like we did with the trade in this year college Draft ?

I would love to, but it's easier said than done. Because of the uncertainty of the draft there are always a more teams looking to move back than the other way around. Most teams would rather lower the financial risk while at the same time increase their chances of hitting a home run on draft day by having more choices. That's why most fan sites are always clamoring for their team to trade down. Sure there are trades on draft day, but usually big ones are rare. Teams move up a few spots, or teams that have stockpiled extra picks are willing to take the gamble. The fact is it's very hard to find someone willing to give up much to move up.

Theoretically, the more options you have when your pick comes up the better so being at the top of the draft order is a good thing. We wouldn't have Mario right now if we didn't have the first pick a few years ago, but we really didn't know what we had then...and most "experts" thought we were crazy. Hindsight makes that decision look easy now. I was someone who wanted Mario over Reggie well before the draft, but no one knew how it would all turn out. Being farther back in the draft gives you a lower financial risk with just as good a chance of finding a special player IMO.

I do want to be last in the draft because we won the Superbowl though .

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by Joshua

Well, one difference if we were 7-9 instead of 8-8 last year is that we would have been picking somewhere between 9 and 15, rather than 18. Not sure how the tie-breakers would have fallen but there is a decent chance we would have been able to draft Chris Williams (LZ said several times that the Texans were high on him and would have drafted him if given the opportunity). He then promptly had back surgery and has missed virtually the entire season. Also, with him available, we likely would not have traded back and thus, no Slaton.

Well that's all very hypothetical, but OK 2 can play that game. Suppose besides Chris Williams we also have a chance to draft Ryan Clady (who went at #12), the LT in the Draft who is playing at a P-B level in his rookie year ? Given the opportunity to take him I imagine we would have surely jumped.
As far as Slaton goes the pick was in large part dumb luck just as the 4th round pick of another Texans RB, Dominick Davis, was several years ago.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by papabear

Theoretically, the more options you have when your pick comes up the better so being at the top of the draft order is a good thing. We wouldn't have Mario right now if we didn't have the first pick a few years ago, but we really didn't know what we had then...and most "experts" thought we were crazy. Hindsight makes that decision look easy now. I was someone who wanted Mario over Reggie well before the draft, but no one knew how it would all turn out. Being farther back in the draft gives you a lower financial risk with just as good a chance of finding a special player IMO.

Well if we knew back then what we know now, we would have cut David Carr in 2006, drafted Jay Cutler and lived happily ever after.
But regarding the value of Draft picks, its arguable that the least valuable pick in the Draft is the #1 because its so expensive cap-wise. But after the #1 (and maybe #2 and #3 for the same reason), most agree that the higher the Draft pick the more valuable. But I really think the trade value of Draft picks are more a function of the individual players in any given draft and the needs of the teams in that Draft.

[Mike]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

I think we've got a shot this weekend vs. the Titans after the way the Texans played this past Sunday in GB on a short week of prep. This is a "rival game" as they say in college and I expect the Texans to be focused. Then after this weekend I say we shut it down and play, maybe even start rookies like Moulden and Barber and Okam, etc. Lets get a look at them and give them some regular season experience on an extended basis.
Of course Kubiak won't do that. He'll try his damnest to win as many more games as possilble even though the wins would be meaningless in the longer term and will actually decrease the value of the Texans Draft position and unnecessarily raise expectations even higher for the 2009 season.

I think we have a shot as well. It puzzles me to see this ongoing fascination with Frank Okam. Has he even made a tackle in his time on the field? Has he even flashed anything? Molden and Barber are not ready and our safety play has been decent with Ferguson (who I hope is healthy) and Wilson. Molden coming from the small school is being brought along slow.

[papabear]

Originally Posted by Mike

I think we have a shot as well. It puzzles me to see this ongoing fascination with Frank Okam. Has he even made a tackle in his time on the field? Has he even flashed anything? Molden and Barber are not ready and our safety play has been decent with Ferguson (who I hope is healthy) and Wilson. Molden coming from the small school is being brought along slow.

Okam's made a few nice plays (2 or 3), but far more he's been pushed around and been ineffective...more so than our other DT's which is saying something.
I'm all for giving the young guys a chance, but they need to earn it during the week and I can't make that call. Playing young guys just because they are young is a bad idea. You'll lose the veterans in a hurry if they don't think the kid deserves it.

[Joshua]

Originally Posted by Mike

It puzzles me to see this ongoing fascination with Frank Okam. Has he even made a tackle in his time on the field?

While it's only my speculation, I think the fascination is driven by two things. One, the belief that he has 1st round talent and we could potentially have the steal of the draft if only we could coax it out of him. Second, since he's a Texas guy, he is somewhat different than most 5th round linemen in that most people around here had heard of him. Unless you really follow college football/draft closely, it is unlikely that the average NFL fan will know much about a 5th round DT. For instance, 3 DTs were taken in front of Okam in the 5th round (Carlton Powell, Jason Shirley, and DeMario Pressley). While most have heard of Okam, I doubt many know much about these guys.

[TheMatrix31]

So are we mathematically eliminated?

[Arky]

Originally Posted by TheMatrix31

So are we mathematically eliminated?

From the playoffs? Yes. Baltimore has 9 wins which is the most the Texans can accomplish and Baltimore beat the Texans head-up...

[TheMatrix31]

That's a shame. I mean, I know we couldnt make the playoffs anyway, but it's always fun to still be officially alive, ya know?

[Arky]

Originally Posted by TheMatrix31

That's a shame. I mean, I know we couldnt make the playoffs anyway, but it's always fun to still be officially alive, ya know?

Yep.

What's it been ... like 15 years or so since a Houston pro football team has been in the playoffs? That's too long.... There's always excitement in the air when you're contending for or get to go the playoffs. Hopefully, these guys (Smith and Kubes) are building us a perennial playoff contender.... I don't have too many complaints, I can wait. 7 years? Ha! That's a mere pittance after being an Oiler fan...

[Mike]

Originally Posted by papabear

Okam's made a few nice plays (2 or 3), but far more he's been pushed around and been ineffective...more so than our other DT's which is saying something.
I'm all for giving the young guys a chance, but they need to earn it during the week and I can't make that call. Playing young guys just because they are young is a bad idea. You'll lose the veterans in a hurry if they don't think the kid deserves it.

Exactly my point. My statement was made somewhat tongue in cheek. If he had come from any school other than UT, nobody would give a flip about him. I have watched every snap this season and my recollections are that he plays slow and he plays high and has not been effective.

As sorry as this sounds, he is not better than TJ, Zgonia, Robinson, Nading....