Official Texans vs. Chiefs Game Thread, 09/18/2016

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Arky

I suppose that's one way to look at it. Using your numbers:

182-58 = 75.8% win percentage

12-4 = 75% win percentage

92-15 (Brady@home) = 86% win percentage

Yes, 11-1 or 10-2 are small sample sizes but they do represent trends. 5-3 or 12-10 or 148-127 are not really trends - those are more like coinflip results.....My point is, people will wager large amounts of money on trends and trend bettors will be all over New England on Thursday....

And I guess another factor here is most of New England's recent outstanding numbers have been compiled with Brady and Belichick running the show. Garoppolo was looking like he could carry the load no problem but now, we will probably see Brissett and his numbers are essentially 0-0 (with a nice relief job yesterday)....

I wasn't totally dismissing the numbers, just pointing out that they are basically equally great at home no matter what the point spread says.

Now if you are betting the line, than the 11-1 ATS is a huge deal since being better than .500 ATS is tough. If you are trying to pick a winner, all you need to know is NE at home.

Plus the small sample size like I said. We are talking about 12 total games spread across 16 seasons, and with Brady out, there is not a single player from over half of those teams playing in this game. So you would be picking winners of Thursday's game based on things Willie McGinest and Deon Branch did a decade ago.

Bottom line is NE is hard to beat at home, but obviously a 3rd string QB makes that easier.