Case Keenum: Career Backup or Something More?

[Keith]

Anyone else still think Keenum is anything more than a career backup?

Lock it up: The Texans are drafting a QB with the first round pick.

[WMH]

Originally Posted by Keith

Anyone else still think Keenum is anything more than a career backup?

Lock it up: The Texans are drafting a QB with the first round pick.

Agree with that. He's regressing. Caught people off guard, now they're caught up.

Time to blow it all up, including the GM.

[HPF Bob]

I would not want Keenum as the uncontested starter next season but I'm not ready to bury him as "career backup" just yet. He was off-target more today than the past four games but there were also passes I'd expect NFL receivers to catch, particularly on that final drive.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

I would not want Keenum as the uncontested starter next season but I'm not ready to bury him as "career backup" just yet. He was off-target more today than the past four games but there were also passes I'd expect NFL receivers to catch, particularly on that final drive.

Eheh. You mean a rookie had a couple of bad games? Hell, they gave KJ 2 years to figure it out - that's what being a first rounder buys you - plenty of OJT....

Ya, I'm not giving up on him, yet. I want to see if he continues to regress or can turn it around before the year is out. Everyone should admit he's in a tough situation.... The coach is probably going to get fired and I'm not sure he's behind him 100%, O-line sucks, receivers can't catch. He's got a QB coach, an OC and Head Coach all "working him".....

Seems like some expect "sensational" all the time.... QB's have bad days (duh)....Look around the league - all QB's have bad performances, the really good and experienced ones keep the stink to a minimum...

They should keep Keenum in the rest of year just for the fact he's not a big INT guy (today's INT really shouldn't count, but it does). If memory serves, he was that way in college, too - low INT's... If someone wants to discuss his "almost INT's", well, just like a close team loss, a close INT doesn't count....

[chuck]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

I would not want Keenum as the uncontested starter next season but I'm not ready to bury him as "career backup" just yet.

He's got a poor line and no running game. He may very well be what we're seeing but I think he's better than this. I hope he is, anyway. If there's not a slam dunk QB sitting there when the Texans draft I want them to go pass rush like they should have done in their first draft. I don't want another Carr (possibly literally) to set the team back another decade.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Arky

Eheh. You mean a rookie had a couple of bad games? Hell, they gave KJ 2 years to figure it out - that's what being a first rounder buys you - plenty of OJT....

Ya, I'm not giving up on him, yet. I want to see if he continues to regress or can turn it around before the year is out. Everyone should admit he's in a tough situation.... The coach is probably going to get fired and I'm not sure he's behind him 100%, O-line sucks, receivers can't catch. He's got a QB coach, an OC and Head Coach all "working him".....

Seems like some expect "sensational" all the time.... QB's have bad days (duh)....Look around the league - all QB's have bad performances, the really good and experienced ones keep the stink to a minimum...

They should keep Keenum in the rest of year just for the fact he's not a big INT guy (today's INT really shouldn't count, but it does). If memory serves, he was that way in college, too - low INT's... If someone wants to discuss his "almost INT's", well, just like a close team loss, a close INT doesn't count....

So "almost" INTs don't count where he throws it right to the other team, but actual INTs don't count either if they are the WRs fault? Can't really have it both ways.

I think he has played ok considering circumstances. But we are 0-5 when he starts. We score less than 20 a game when he starts (near the league bottom). We average around 5 points per 2nd half when he plays. And all of these stats are declining (except w/l which can't get worse).

I appreciate the effort, the fun, and the hope he's brought after Schaub threw up all over this season, but nothing about his performance says pass on a QB you like. I think you draft like he doesn't exist. That doesn't mean force a QB, but don't pass on one because you've got a guy who can be a top 20 NFL QB under the right circumstances.

[WMH]

1st, he's not a rookie.
He's consistently gotten worse since his first game, and has yet to have a good 2nd half.
The kids got heart and desire, but is limited on tools. I hope he sticks in the league for a long time, just don't care to have him as my QB with so many other options available that could actually move us forward.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by barrett

So "almost" INTs don't count where he throws it right to the other team, but actual INTs don't count either if they are the WRs fault? Can't really have it both ways.

I think he has played ok considering circumstances. But we are 0-5 when he starts. We score less than 20 a game when he starts (near the league bottom). We average around 5 points per 2nd half when he plays. And all of these stats are declining (except w/l which can't get worse).

No, what I'm referring to is the Case critics who seem to count his "almost INT's". When a heavy-fisted linebacker drops an INT, it really doesn't count as an INT but the Case critics put a check mark in the negative column ("dude, he almost threw two INT's last game"). When one of his receivers bobbles the ball and the other team INT's, yes, that counts on his record as an INT (as opposed to an "almost INT"). I'm not having it both ways.

Compare to his 0-5 record (0-4.5 actually, Schaub gets some "credit" for Oakland), every one of those games was a close loss. The Texans were in a position to have won every one of those games. But nobody made a play in crunch time and Keenum is not immune here. But close only counts in horseshoes and hand-grenades and "almost INT's" with the Case critics..... Got it?

I appreciate the effort, the fun, and the hope he's brought after Schaub threw up all over this season, but nothing about his performance says pass on a QB you like. I think you draft like he doesn't exist. That doesn't mean force a QB, but don't pass on one because you've got a guy who can be a top 20 NFL QB under the right circumstances.

I think Keenum is just about the only interesting thing going on with the Texans the rest of the way. I'll probably tune in just to see how he does..... Him and Watt.... Watt is worth the price of admission.....

[popanot]

Originally Posted by Keith

Lock it up: The Texans are drafting a QB with the first round pick.

The sad thing is, if we don't end up with the #1 overall pick where Bridgewater looks like the top QB prospect, it appears Derek Carr is the next best thing and I would think chances are pretty slim we draft him. I remember hearing a report somewhere that he has hard feelings about how Houston treated David and that he wouldn't want to come here.

Who wants to make a wager this is exactly how it plays out? The Texans win a game and lose the #1 overall pick and Carr is sitting there the obvious QB choice. It would be so appropriate based on this city's sports history.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by popanot

The sad thing is, if we don't end up with the #1 overall pick where Bridgewater looks like the top QB prospect, it appears Derek Carr is the next best thing and I would think chances are pretty slim we draft him. I remember hearing a report somewhere that he has hard feelings about how Houston treated David and that he wouldn't want to come here.

Who wants to make a wager this is exactly how it plays out? The Texans win a game and lose the #1 overall pick and Carr is sitting there the obvious QB choice. It would be so appropriate based on this city's sports history.

ESPN has Mariota as the top QB and #3 overall. Bridgewater is next at #6, with Manziel and Hundley later in the round. Carr is not listed amongst the top 32 prospects. I don't think I've heard of Carr as a 1st round pick anywhere.

The truth is that only Manziel is even intriguing to me out of that group. I watched Bridgewater look bad against a UH defense that gave up about 700 yards to BYU and has like 2 upperclassmen on the 2 deep. Mariota cannot pass unless he can run which means he cannot pass. Hundley I know almost nothing about except that he looks the part.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by popanot

The sad thing is, if we don't end up with the #1 overall pick where Bridgewater looks like the top QB prospect, it appears Derek Carr is the next best thing and I would think chances are pretty slim we draft him. I remember hearing a report somewhere that he has hard feelings about how Houston treated David and that he wouldn't want to come here.

Who wants to make a wager this is exactly how it plays out? The Texans win a game and lose the #1 overall pick and Carr is sitting there the obvious QB choice. It would be so appropriate based on this city's sports history.

I know very little about the QBs who might be available in the upcoming Draft other than some of their names ? Have not seen a single one play as I don't watch that much college ball. Another Carr in Houston seems intriguing to say the least ? What known similarities and differences does he have with David, who was certainly not without talent but was also notoriously lazy ?
One thing is obvious though, even more than ever a competent QB seems a necessity to be successful in the NFL these days, so I'm of the opinion if there's even a reasonably good prospect out there at QB and your team needs one, then you draft him even ahead of somebody like a Clowney who might be one of the greatest defensive prospects of his time. Of course ideally you draft Clowney and use a later pick for somebody who's gone unnoticed in the top rounds, like a Russel Wilson. Whatever ?

[Joshua]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

One thing is obvious though, even more than ever a competent QB seems a necessity to be successful in the NFL these days, so I'm of the opinion if there's even a reasonably good prospect out there at QB and your team needs one, then you draft him even ahead of somebody like a Clowney who might be one of the greatest defensive prospects of his time. Of course ideally you draft Clowney and use a later pick for somebody who's gone unnoticed in the top rounds, like a Russel Wilson. Whatever ?

These are my thoughts exactly. The QB position is more valuable than ever and your odds of ultimate success without a top flight QB are exceedingly slim.

[HPF Bob]

But not slim enough to force the selection in a bad year for QBs. If a Luck or RG3 or Cam Newton is there, sure, take him. But I'm not ga-ga over any of the ones who will likely come out this year and when compared to choosing a safer choice like Jake Matthews, it's dumb to overreach just because you need a QB.

How many of the teams in playoff position today are ones that the QB is with their original team and drafted in the first round?

NE - no.
DEN - no
KC - no
CIN - no (Dalton was a second-rounder IIRC)
IND - yes
6th seed? - who cares, they're all 5-6.

SEA - no (Wilson not a first-rounder)
NO - no
ARI - no
DET - yes
DAL - no
CAR - yes

Maybe drafting an elite QB 1-1 isn't the magic tonic some people think.

[cadams]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

But not slim enough to force the selection in a bad year for QBs. If a Luck or RG3 or Cam Newton is there, sure, take him. But I'm not ga-ga over any of the ones who will likely come out this year and when compared to choosing a safer choice like Jake Matthews, it's dumb to overreach just because you need a QB.

How many of the teams in playoff position today are ones that the QB is with their original team and drafted in the first round?

NE - no.
DEN - no
KC - no
CIN - no (Dalton was a second-rounder IIRC)
IND - yes
6th seed? - who cares, they're all 5-6.

SEA - no (Wilson not a first-rounder)
NO - no
ARI - no
DET - yes
DAL - no
CAR - yes

Maybe drafting an elite QB 1-1 isn't the magic tonic some people think.

only magic if you get it right, but better chance of getting it right if you take the best prospect out of the group

[Keith]

Split the Case discussion from the Jags game thread.

Originally Posted by Arky

Seems like some expect "sensational" all the time....

I don't expect the sensational, though it seems Case expects it of himself. Case needs to learn to throw the ball away instead of taking a 16 yard loss and a sack. Reading blitzes, knowing when to throw away... these are things young QBs always struggle with, so combine that with the injuries on offense, and I can understand why the results are what they have been and why people want to give Case a huge benefit of the doubt.

I don't lay the 0-5 record on Case at all, those first three were there to win, and the team as a whole is responsible. But losing at home to the Raiders and Jaguars? When the opposition had Henne and someone named McLovin? Those "backyard" or what I call "flag football" plays sure seem to have dried up lately. Not a fluke. Teams adjust. This is why it was dangerous to prorate Keenum's stats after just 3 games.

I'm just judging based on what I see. One stat I find telling in my assessment: Keenum is completing just 47.5% of his passes between 1-10 yards through 59 attempts. Yikes.

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

How many of the teams in playoff position today are ones that the QB is with their original team and drafted in the first round?

NE - no.
DEN - no
KC - no
CIN - no (Dalton was a second-rounder IIRC)
IND - yes
6th seed? - who cares, they're all 5-6.

SEA - no (Wilson not a first-rounder)
NO - no
ARI - no
DET - yes
DAL - no
CAR - yes

Maybe drafting an elite QB 1-1 isn't the magic tonic some people think.

It's not, and taking Clowney or Matthews may be a good move, especially since the round 1 cap hits are easier on teams now, but a couple things... your list ignores that Denver, KC, and Arizona each have 1-1 guys as their QBs (even though they didn't draft them).

So what this list tells me is that most playoff teams DO need a quality QB, and quality is typically found higher in the draft than later. Are there exceptions? Of course. But Brady's and Romo's are far from the norm, and I don't count Keenum as being in that class.

With a new regime presumably coming in, a new QB at the top just seems all the more likely.

[popanot]

Originally Posted by barrett

ESPN has Mariota as the top QB and #3 overall. Bridgewater is next at #6, with Manziel and Hundley later in the round. Carr is not listed amongst the top 32 prospects. I don't think I've heard of Carr as a 1st round pick anywhere.

Mariota, Hundley and Manziel are all underclassmen and haven't decided to enter the draft yet. It's probably safe to say Manziel will, but I'm not so sure about Mariota and Hundley. Even adding those 3 into the mix, CBS Sports currently has Carr listed as the 4th best QB prospect and 15th best overall prospect. I've seen a few mocks that have him going top-10 (at least 2 of them I read recently have him going top-5). Are any of these sources (including ESPN) accurate? Who knows, but everything I've read over the last few weeks indicate Carr is moving up fast and some think he has best arm and is the most conventional as far as normal NFL QB standards. He's been white-hot lately and recently accepted an invite to the Senior Bowl, which could put him right in the top 2 mix if he shows well there. If it came down to it and it's determined Carr's the best prospect for us, I say take him. He'll get over it.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

But not slim enough to force the selection in a bad year for QBs. If a Luck or RG3 or Cam Newton is there, sure, take him. But I'm not ga-ga over any of the ones who will likely come out this year and when compared to choosing a safer choice like Jake Matthews, it's dumb to overreach just because you need a QB.

How many of the teams in playoff position today are ones that the QB is with their original team and drafted in the first round?

NE - no.
DEN - no
KC - no
CIN - no (Dalton was a second-rounder IIRC)
IND - yes
6th seed? - who cares, they're all 5-6.

SEA - no (Wilson not a first-rounder)
NO - no
ARI - no
DET - yes
DAL - no
CAR - yes

Maybe drafting an elite QB 1-1 isn't the magic tonic some people think.

How does that data compare to the number of teams who have a QB drafted in the 2nd round who is still with them and leading them to the playoffs? How about the 3rd round? I would bet there are more teams with 1st round drafted QBs in the playoffs every year than 2nd round drafted QBs every year. But of course rounds 2-7 plus FA and Trade gets more QBs than just round 1 by itself.

How many playoff teams have RTs they drafted in the 1st round? (I bet none)

DEs they drafted in the first round? (I bet just as many as QB)

You are manipulating data to fit a pre-determined opinion (you don't want a 1st round QB).

Actual analysis says 3 teams drafted their QB in round 1, 1 team in round 2, 1 team in round 3, 1 team in round 6, and 1 UDFA. 2 others signed FAs, and 2 traded for theirs. This means the most likely way to get a playoff QB is to draft one in the 1st round (Luck, Stafford, Newton).

But remove the original team caveat and you get this;

Manning, Luck, Stafford, Newton, Palmer, and Alex Smith were not just 1st rounders, but #1 overall picks. That means half of this year's playoff QBs were #1 overall picks.

Does any of this mean we MUST go QB. Absolutely not. It just means Bob's stats were misleading and I can mislead with stats just as easily if I so desired.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by popanot

Mariota, Hundley and Manziel are all underclassmen and haven't decided to enter the draft yet. It's probably safe to say Manziel will, but I'm not so sure about Mariota and Hundley. Even adding those 3 into the mix, CBS Sports currently has Carr listed as the 4th best QB prospect and 15th best overall prospect. I've seen a few mocks that have him going top-10 (at least 2 of them I read recently have him going top-5). Are any of these sources (including ESPN) accurate? Who knows, but everything I've read over the last few weeks indicate Carr is moving up fast and some think he has best arm and is the most conventional as far as normal NFL QB standards. He's been white-hot lately and recently accepted an invite to the Senior Bowl, which could put him right in the top 2 mix if he shows well there. If it came down to it and it's determined Carr's the best prospect for us, I say take him. He'll get over it.

My point was simply there are lots of QBs this year and we won't find ourselves looking at Carr as our only option in some kind of cosmic joke. Additionally, if Kubiak is gone, not one member of our organization who got rid of big brother would still be here (unless our ST coach survives another HC hiring).

[popanot]

As for Keenum, I agree with most here in that he is not the answer and in no way should he be a factor in us drafting a QB. I don't care who is here next year from our current roster, they MUST draft a QB in the 1rst or 2nd RD.

[popanot]

Originally Posted by barrett

My point was simply there are lots of QBs this year and we won't find ourselves looking at Carr as our only option in some kind of cosmic joke. Additionally, if Kubiak is gone, not one member of our organization who got rid of big brother would still be here (unless our ST coach survives another HC hiring).

I'm not dismissing anything as far as cosmic jokes when it comes to this sports town.