Length to Impact and the 1st round

[painekiller]

Length to Impact (LTI) is used by some internet scouts, and I believe it has some validity, especially in our draft this season.

LTI cannot live in a vacuum, we also must look at normal life span of the positions, and projected ceiling of the player.

When we look at all the positions, CB has one of the lower learning curves. QB has one of the longer LTI's. RBs maybe able to play early in most offenses but they have short lifes. What does this all mean.

IMO, we should be looking at OL, DB, or and outside look at LB. Why?

OL, specifically Mike Iupati or Trent Williams, can come in this season and play at a high enough level to upgrade our LG position. Some people also believe that Maurkice Pouncey can also be a player like that. OL also have long life spans in the NFL normally.

1st round CBs should be able to start day one. Haden, Wilson and maybe McCourty would walk in and be our best CB day one. I am going to trust Ray Lewis and his evaluation on this.

Safety, has a larger learning curve than CB. It has a long life, now if I am picking a player in round one he needs to be a starter, and only Earl Thomas fits that mold, IMO. Mays is a stud and would start, but is he the guy the Texans want? Again I would defer to Ray Lewis on this.

RBs the life span of a RB is to short to use a 1st on him, Ryan Mathews would be solid pick, but how much better is he than Hardesty or Tate.

DT, as we all know has a long adjustment to the NFL, and are we really better off with Dan Williams over Lamarr Houston or Tyson Alualu, I know that Williams is a NT and the later are 3 technique guys, but we can always grab Linval Joseph later in the draft to play the NT.

LB, let me ask you this, would you have taken Rey Lewis or Marvin Harrison? I would say LB has a bigger impact than WR, and IMO Weatherspoon is a stud, and our team is better with him. That all said we have bigger needs.

So who do I like at 20? Mike Iupati or Kyle Wilson unless Earl Thomas is still there.

[nunusguy]

"CB has one of the lower learning curves"
Really ? I've always heard just the opposite, which is, after QB it's one of the most challenging positions to succeed at.

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

"CB has one of the lower learning curves"
Really ? I've always heard just the opposite, which is, after QB it's one of the most challenging positions to succeed at.

Guess I've been proven wrong again.

If you run a man system then it's easier on the CBs to learn. If you are running advanced zones, then the CBs needs time to learn the coverage responsibilities.

If you really look, other then most teams RB, they all are hard to adjust to.
Kubiak ask his RB to learn to block, something they have never done. So that makes even RB a hard position to learn for most players.

[idymoe]

I would be happy with any of those 3 guys, as well as Pouncey, Mathews, or Williams or Haden, should they be there as some sites predict. I guess I would even be happy with Mays, but would feel he has a much bigger risk for bust. My only problem with Weatherspoon is that I felt Diles did a respectable job with DeMeco and Cush. I just think those other guys fill a bigger need.

[Bigtinylittle]

At this point I am far more concerned that we don't bust on our first rounder like we apparently did on Akoye. So I will be happy with a RB, CB, OL, 3 down linebacker, or perhaps even a safety.

I will be ok with the Texans just getting someone as good as Brown has been at LT, as long as we draft well with our second, third, and fourth round picks. I would call that a good draft.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by painekiller

LTI cannot live in a vacuum, we also must look at normal life span of the positions, and projected ceiling of the player.

IMO, we should be looking at OL, DB, or and outside look at LB. Why?

OL, specifically Mike Iupati or Trent Williams, can come in this season and play at a high enough level to upgrade our LG position.

1st round CBs should be able to start day one.

Safety, has a larger learning curve than CB. It has a long life, now if I am picking a player in round one he needs to be a starter, and only Earl Thomas fits that mold,

RBs the life span of a RB is to short to use a 1st on him, Ryan Mathews would be solid pick, but how much better is he than Hardesty or Tate.

I know that Williams is a NT and the later are 3 technique guys, but we can always grab Linval Joseph later in the draft to play the NT.

So who do I like at 20? Mike Iupati or Kyle Wilson unless Earl Thomas is still there.

A prospect has value based upon the supply of similar players too. You made comparisons of Mathews vs. Tate and Dan Williams vs. Linval Joseph, so you realize this, maybe subconsciously. This is perilous to do when there is only 1 player who is being projected by consensus to be available later in the draft.

The reason I have Eric Berry ranked #1 on my board is because there are no other players like him going to be available in THIS draft. Most likely he's gone before we select at #20. I'd compare him to that Long-Haired guy that plays in Pittsburgh that nobody can spell.

Trent Williams is my #2 because he can play LT and he has enough athleticism and nastyness to play LG in our ZBS. Again, it's not likely that he drops out of the top 10, but I've seen some mocks in which he does, so I wanted to be ready to scoop him up. There just aren't many comparable OL in THIS draft that can come in and start. I'd guess that Asamoah and John Jerry would be upgrades over what we have on the roster, so they are going to be high on my board. Other than those 3, anyone else we draft on the OL are going to need some seasoning and time to make an impact.

Then next 4 players on my board are based upon LTI, Supply & Demand, Positional Value, Need, and Talent.

Earl Thomas is the closest thing to Ed Reed. If he's there, we should take him or be very sure that we get a lot of value for trading down. Kyle Wilson replaces Dunta for less $$$. Dan Williams plays NT like Pat Williams, John Henderson, and Kris Jenkins - so, that would be nice for Okoye, Mario, the LB s, and the Secondary. Then, there is Spoon. I'd compare him to Lance Briggs & Keith Bulluck.

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by Roy P

A prospect has value based upon the supply of similar players too. You made comparisons of Mathews vs. Tate and Dan Williams vs. Linval Joseph, so you realize this, maybe subconsciously. This is perilous to do when there is only 1 player who is being projected by consensus to be available later in the draft.

.

I agree with this. As you stated I referred to it, but did not articulate it outright.

I can say, IMO there are a number of RBs I like through out the draft. And you have made me aware of a handful of DT available in the 3rd and 4th round range.

I appear to be higher on the talent available in this draft, and how they project to our team.

Some of my guys need seasoning, (this is not in order of preference on the OL)

My OL prospects: Mike Iupati, Jon Asamoah, Mike Johnson, Mitch Petrus, Marshall Newhouse, Sergio Render, Shelley Smith, JD Walton, Matt Tennant, Maurkice Pouncey, Trent Williams, Zane Beadles, Jeff Byers, Kevin Matthews, Selvish Capers, Adam Ulatoski:

RB: CJ Spiller, Ryan Mathews, Toby Gerhart, Dexter McCluster, Montario Hardesty, Ben Tate, Joe McKnight, James Starks, Lonyae Miller, Charles Scott, Andre Anderson , Javarris James, Deji Karim, Keiland Williams, Jameson Konz.

CB: Joe Haden, Kyle Wilson, Patrick Robinson, Devin McCourty, Kareem Jackson, Chris Cook, Brandon Ghee, Akwasi Owusu-Ansah, Dominique Franks,
Jerome Murphy, Donovan Warren, Amari Spievey, Javier Arenas, Kevin Thomas, Walter Thurmond, Syd'Quan Thompson, Walter McFadden, Trevard Lindley, A.J. Jefferson, Nolan Carroll, Brian Jackson, Jamar Wall

S: Earl Thomas, Taylor Mays, Morgan Burnett, Darrell Stuckey, Larry Asante, Kam Chancellor, Myron Rolle, Justin Woodall, Jordan Lake. I admit I do not know the safeties like Roy.

[nunusguy]

20# HOU- K. Jackson CB Alabama- A very talented, polished CB that should start day 1 in HOU
21# CIN- J. Gresham TE Oklahoma- Finally, the Bengals get an elite TE for Carson Palmer
22# NE- R. Mathews RB Fresno St- They have a lot of bodies at RB but not a single stud, enter Mathews
23# GB- K. Wilson CB Boise St- Watching the arial circus against AZ makes this a logical move
24# PHI- D. McCourty CB Rutgers- They can address LB in the later rounds, don’t want to miss the run on CB’s
http://www.movethesticks.com/
***********************************
The guy who produced this freshly updated mock is a former scout for Baltimore GM Newsom by the name of Daniel Jeremiah who was a guest on the 1560 Draft show tonight. So he's got the cred given his background as a paid NFL talent evaluator, but what about who he's got the Texans taking at #20 while they leave those 2 other corners on the Board ? Any thoughts on Kareem Jackson ?

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by painekiller

I appear to be higher on the talent available in this draft, and how they project to our team.

Some of my guys need seasoning, (this is not in order of preference on the OL)

My OL prospects: Mike Iupati, Jon Asamoah, Mike Johnson, Mitch Petrus, Marshall Newhouse, Sergio Render, Shelley Smith, JD Walton, Matt Tennant, Maurkice Pouncey, Trent Williams, Zane Beadles, Jeff Byers, Kevin Matthews, Selvish Capers, Adam Ulatoski:

RB: CJ Spiller, Ryan Mathews, Toby Gerhart, Dexter McCluster, Montario Hardesty, Ben Tate, Joe McKnight, James Starks, Lonyae Miller, Charles Scott, Andre Anderson , Javarris James, Deji Karim, Keiland Williams, Jameson Konz.

CB: Joe Haden, Kyle Wilson, Patrick Robinson, Devin McCourty, Kareem Jackson, Chris Cook, Brandon Ghee, Akwasi Owusu-Ansah, Dominique Franks,
Jerome Murphy, Donovan Warren, Amari Spievey, Javier Arenas, Kevin Thomas, Walter Thurmond, Syd'Quan Thompson, Walter McFadden, Trevard Lindley, A.J. Jefferson, Nolan Carroll, Brian Jackson, Jamar Wall
S: Earl Thomas, Taylor Mays, Morgan Burnett, Darrell Stuckey, Larry Asante, Kam Chancellor, Myron Rolle, Justin Woodall, Jordan Lake. I admit I do not know the safeties like Roy.

Along the OL - I'd say Trent Williams, Asamoah, and Jerry improve the OL. Saffold and Walton are probably equivalent to what we have, but would improve with experience. I don't think you even listed Rodger Saffold on your list. Because of their Combine - I'd be willing to develop Newhouse, Eric Olsen, Shawn Lauvao, Shelley Smith, Joe Hawley, and John Estes. The other guys that you list I can't fathom in Texan uniforms. They are either too slow footed, or too highly rated compared to other players that will be available.

RB - I like Matthews but no so much that I'm spending #20 on him. I absolutely love Ben Tate and am pleasantly surprised to see him in the 4th round on some boards. We could 'get away with' Gerhart or even Hardesty. Dwyer is an enigma, but I think he'd be ok. Some have him as a 2nd round pick which is too rich for my blood. I don't really like any RB's after that, but because of other needs, I may have to hold my nose and select one later in the draft. Joe McKnight is smaller than I want (198lbs) but he ran a 4.4 in the 40. Anthony Dixon is S-L-O-W but he is big and perhaps could move the chains. He reminds me of BJG-E who the Patriots signed as an UDFA. James Starks has the measurables, but I've never seen him play, so I'm hesitant to endorse him, but if late enough, I can select on measurables alone. Starks has an injury history too. I liked what I saw from Andre Anderson of Tulane, but I don't know if I'll bet the farm on him and a 4.58. Lonyae Miller has the right size, but his shuttle and Cone are not impressive. I've never seen Deji Karim - but his size/speed looks like Slaton's clone. Andre Dixon has decent measurables, I just wish he were bigger. Joique Bell had good shuttle/Cone, but a 4.68 is not wonderful and neither is coming from a small school. So, basically there are only 3 guys I WANT to have, and a few more that I'd be willing to take.

CB - I hate the CB's in this draft. Straight up. In previous drafts I wanted to select Leon Hall, Antoine Cason, Richard Marshall and Antrel Rolle. Now, we HAVE to get a Corner and this is the crap we get to choose from. The best 2 CBs are FS. Then Kyle Wilson - who may be as good as Jonathon Joseph. Not a world-beater, but better than on our roster. Patrick Robinson may be as good as Eric Wright or as bad as Philip Buchanon. McCourty has good technique, but bad hands for the INT. He reminds me a little bit of Tracy Porter, but Tracy catches more INTs. Ghee has lots of potential but only 1 interception while he was in college. So, does my dire need for the position cause me to 'reach' for a guy that isn't going to give me a lot of impact? Might I be better off waiting for a guy that has slipped because of his lack of speed, size, or maybe an injury or his perceived poor support against the run? If I can improve my pass rush, maybe I don't NEED to have a 1st round CB. My mid/late round value in the CB include Kevin Thomas, Alterraun Verner, Trevard Lindley, Crezdon Butler, Walter McFadden, AJ Jefferson, Jamar Wall and Joshua Moore.

S - Have I said that I LOVE Eric Berry & Earl Thomas? Taylor Mays intrigues me because of his physical attributes. However, I'll only select him in the 2nd round. So, I probably won't draft him. I like what I've seen of Darrell Stuckey, but he's not really a FS. I don't like Chris Cook as a CB, but I'd put him as a FS if he were still on the board in the 3rd round. Akwasi Owusu-Ansah, Major Wright, and Morgan Burnett are 3 other players I'd be willing to draft in the 3rd to play FS. Otherwise, I'll wait until the 5th to take Myron Lewis or the 6th to take Brian Jackson. If I could give Brian Jackson the speed of Myron Lewis, I'd draft that guy in the 2nd round. The Special Teams guys that may develop into a starting FS include Robert Johnson,
Terrell Skinner, Nick Polk and Jamar Wall. I put wall as a CB, but I'd be willing to move him to FS.

[Roy P]

The more I watch the Texans play, the more I want to get more pass rush from the DL. Then when I watch the Senior Bowl and the Shrine Bowl, I really want to draft Geno Atkins and Daniel Te'o-Nesheim. I realize that we drafted Okoye who had a 1.65 for a 10-yd split and a 7.46 Cone. Maybe he improves because of maturity and experience this year. Geno only had a 1.68 for a 10-yd split, but his 7.33 Cone is nice. He was also unblockable in Mobile and ate Iupati up. D. Te'o-Nesheim has numbers comparable to Barwin. In the Shrine Game he would have had 3 sacks or at least 2 intentional groundings. He has more 'experience' playing the DE position than Barwin does and is stout against the run.

DT-N : 40 - 4.73, 20 - 2.70, 10 - 1.61, Cone - 6.91, Shuttle - 4.18
CBrwn: 40 - 4.59, 20 - 2.68, 10 - 1.53, Cone - 6.87, Shuttle - 4.18

Now, imagine if you could Dan Williams being the Texans 1st round pick at #20.

1. DT Dan Williams
2. RB Ben Tate
3. DT Geno Atkins
4. DE Daniel Te'o-Nesheim
5. CB Kevin Thomas
6. RB James Starks
6. CB Crezdon Butler
7. OG Shelley Smith

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

20# HOU- K. Jackson CB Alabama- A very talented, polished CB that should start day 1 in HOU......................

The guy who produced this freshly updated mock is a former scout for Baltimore GM Newsom by the name of Daniel Jeremiah who was a guest on the 1560 Draft show tonight. So he's got the cred given his background as a paid NFL talent evaluator, but what about who he's got the Texans taking at #20 while they leave those 2 other corners on the Board ? Any thoughts on Kareem Jackson ?

Jackson played for Nick Sabin, who is hard on DBs. To play for Sabin a CB has to be able to play man down the field. They do not get much help from the safeties who are playing in the box to stop the run.

Expect Jackson to be well coached in college and ready to play.

I have a high 2nd on him, but I am not paid like Jeremiah has been.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by painekiller

Jackson played for Nick Sabin, who is hard on DBs. To play for Sabin a CB has to be able to play man down the field. They do not get much help from the safeties who are playing in the box to stop the run.

Expect Jackson to be well coached in college and ready to play.

I have a high 2nd on him, but I am not paid like Jeremiah has been.

I dunno if this class of corners going into the Draft are superior, inferior, or just average compared to past years, but I'm starting to get the impression that there is rough equality within 5 or 6 corners ? In other words Haden isn't clearly the best or Haden & Kyle Wiilson clearly aren't the 2 best, but there's a half dozen or so who are all pretty close together.

[bckey]

Excellent thread guys. I see that you don't mention anything about Nate Allen as a possibility for the Texans at fs Roy. Do you not like him or is he just rated to go in a spot where you don't think the Texans could draft him? Most have him going early 2nd which would mean the Texans would have to move up in the 2nd or possibly trade back out of the 1st.

[Joe Joe]

For LTI, getting a CB, RB, or OG is probably the best bet for immediate impact for the first two picks for the Texans. RB and OG would basically revamp the interior line with Smith, Caldwell, and draft pick hopefully being good enough to replace last years line while giving the Texans a RB that is a larger threat in running game. CB would be nice as well. The Texans almost need to trade down in first round to get an additional 2nd rd pick or trade up from the third round so that they can get a player at each of these needs.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by bckey

I see that you don't mention anything about Nate Allen as a possibility for the Texans at fs Roy.

I was pretty fired up about Nate Allen by what I had read about him. Possible "Cover" Safety that tackles well enough to help in the run game. He was one of "My Guys" going into the season. Then I watched a game he played and I was quite dissappointed. I saw a playmaker on the youtube highlights. However, I saw a guy who was hesitant to make contact in a game. When he did attempt to make a tackle, he missed and he had a couple of sweeping arm tackles that the runner broke. So, I've removed him from my board because he's not physical enough for my tastes as a 2nd round pick.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by Joe Joe

For LTI, getting a CB, RB, or OG is probably the best bet for immediate impact for the first two picks for the Texans.

Of those 3, RB has the shortest 'shelf-life' so, that's why I'd hate to take Ryan Mathews in the 1st round. My prob is I don't know which RB will be available in the 3rd round. So, yes, getting an extra 2nd round pick by trading down would be WONDERFUL. I'd probably go with something like....

1. CB Devin McCourty
2. OG Jon Asamoah
2. RB Ben Tate
3. DT Geno Atkins

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by Roy P

Of those 3, RB has the shortest 'shelf-life' so, that's why I'd hate to take Ryan Mathews in the 1st round. My prob is I don't know which RB will be available in the 3rd round. So, yes, getting an extra 2nd round pick by trading down would be WONDERFUL. I'd probably go with something like....

1. CB Devin McCourty
2. OG Jon Asamoah
2. RB Ben Tate
3. DT Geno Atkins

Or maybe Wilson falls to the spot we trade down to... it might happen.

Along with trading down, I would trade next year's 2nd rounder for a an early 3rd this season. Might be the season to go all in at the draft, build the foundation.

1 CB Kyle Wilson
2 RB Montario Hardesty
2 DT Lamarr Houston
3 OG Mike Johnson
3 DT Linval Joseph

I am with Roy on the short shelf live of the RB being an issue, that is why I pass on Mathews in the 1st, but if he is available in the early 2nd might have to look at a trade up.

[Joe Joe]

Originally Posted by Roy P

Of those 3, RB has the shortest 'shelf-life' so, that's why I'd hate to take Ryan Mathews in the 1st round. My prob is I don't know which RB will be available in the 3rd round. So, yes, getting an extra 2nd round pick by trading down would be WONDERFUL. I'd probably go with something like....

1. CB Devin McCourty
2. OG Jon Asamoah
2. RB Ben Tate
3. DT Geno Atkins

RBs burn quickest, but also burn the brightest. Houston passed for the most yards last season. The only things missing from a dominating offense are a running game for which they need a RB and at least one more interior lineman. The Texans need the running game now. The defense was thirteenth last year and should be better as the best players are young. The defense also needs the offense to hold more time of possession.

While early first round may be too high for a RB, I don't think pick 20 is especially early considering the RB that should be available played in a very similar system and displays what the Texans attempt to do.

[bckey]

Originally Posted by Roy P

I was pretty fired up about Nate Allen by what I had read about him. Possible "Cover" Safety that tackles well enough to help in the run game. He was one of "My Guys" going into the season. Then I watched a game he played and I was quite dissappointed. I saw a playmaker on the youtube highlights. However, I saw a guy who was hesitant to make contact in a game. When he did attempt to make a tackle, he missed and he had a couple of sweeping arm tackles that the runner broke. So, I've removed him from my board because he's not physical enough for my tastes as a 2nd round pick.

Thanks for the info Roy. I knew there had to be a reason you left him off.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by painekiller

1 CB Kyle Wilson
2 RB Montario Hardesty
2 DT Lamarr Houston
3 OG Mike Johnson
3 DT Linval Joseph

I think that Kyle Wilson may be off the board before we pick (Steelers). Interestingly, Patrick Robinson is being shown as a 2nd round pick these days which makes me wonder about his 'off the field' 'character' issues and the Academic scandal. I haven't followed him around, hired a private investigator, or talked to his teammates, but I wonder if he'd be a good teammate. I'd like to know what he ran for a Shuttle time at his Pro-Day. He gets 'dinged' for his lack of willingness to tackle in the run game (Phillip Buchanan, anyone?) but has the hands to make an interception. Then there is Ghee who may be a better FS than CB and has hands like feet. I'm being a 'wishful thinker,' but would realllllly like for Devin McCourty to be there after a trade down.

On another post, I think Nunu was asking about Drew Boylhart's mock draft. Looking at the mock, he has McCourty being drafted by the Ravens at #25. Wouldn't the Eagles like to trade up to #20 and let us slide down to #24 so we could get McCourty? The 'bad news' is that D.B. loves Linval Joseph so much that he has the Vikings selecting him at #30. First they have Pat & Kevin Williams and now they get this guy! Anyway, I have him with a 3rd round grade too, and hope that one of the 3-4 teams don't snag him up.

1. CB Devin McCourty 5'11" 186 4.48 Rutgers
2. OG Jon Asamoah 6'4" 308 5.08 Illinois
2. RB Ben Tate 5'11" 218 4.43 Auburn
3. DT Geno Atkins 6'2" 293 4.86 Georgia
3. DT Linval Joseph 6'5" 328 5.12 East Carolina
4. S Darrell Stuckey 5'11" 205 4.49 Kansas