The Upcoming NE Game

[WMH]

Yes it's Monday, but dammit, I am excited.......

From PFT regarding some info on Brady's approach to next weekend.
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/rumor-mill.php

Brady wants to "carry over" strong week
Posted by Gregg Rosenthal on December 28, 2009 11:38 AM ET
Tom Brady says the Patriots are coming off their best week of practice of the season and "one of" the team's best games. He wants to keep that momentum going next week in Houston.

"You don't want to make it seem like one week we're a team that looks like we did yesterday, and the next week we're a team that looks like we played against the Bills," Brady said on WEEI Monday morning, as transcribed by Mike Reiss of ESPNBoston.com.

"I'd love to see us go down there and put together the same type of effort," Brady said.

We wouldn't be surprised to see the Patriots play Brady all four quarters. Bill Belichick faced nearly the exact same decision in Week Seventeen of the 2005 and 2006 season. In both cases, the Patriots had the division clinched but no chance at bye. There was little at stake.

In 2005, Matt Cassel replaced Brady in the first half of a narrow loss to the Dolphins.

In 2006, Brady played until the game was decided in a win over a streaking Titans team. The difference in approach may have had to do with how the Patriots were playing.

The 2005 team was on a four-game winning streak. The 2006 team had won two straight, but had lost to Miami 21-0 in Week Fourteen.

It's just an educated guess, but we suspect Belichick feels similar to Brady. The 2009 team looks like one that needs to improve on Sundays before sitting anyone. Injured players like Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren will clearly rest up for the playoffs, but Brady may just get his wish.

That doesn't mean the Patriots will prevail -- their best road win thus far is Buffalo -- but it certainly wouldn't help Houston's playoff hopes.

[NBT]

Which means the Patriots are trying to get on a peak to last out the season. The Texans, in order to have a chance to beat the Patriots, will have to have the same type of 'A' game they did in the first half against Miami, but they will have to play that way for a full game to have a chance to stay with NE. The defense will have to attack more also, against the Patriots than they have been.

[Keith]

My guess is the Texans will come out like world beaters in the first half like they appeared in the Seahawks and Dolphins games. The difference this time will be that the Patriots will fight back sooner.

Hopefully this keeps the team's interest beyond halftime. I wouldn't be too surprised if 60+ points were scored in this one.

Hmmm... over/under talk reminds me we haven't had an official O/U contest yet this year. Maybe I'll post one later tonight.

[HPF Bob]

I think with all the flack Caldwell has received, Belichick will be less inclined to rest his starters early. The Texans will make those two predictable turnovers they almost always make and will have no answer for the combination of Welker and Moss.

If the Texans are going to win, they will need to jump on the Patriots early and get them disinterested in giving 100%. They won't know if the Bengals will win or lose so the Patriots are unlikely to just go through the motions but nothing will do it more than a quick 2-TD deficit.

If it comes down to the end, though, expect the Patriots to make the plays and the Texans to choke. It's what we always expect from both of them.

[nero THE zero]

The more I think about it, the more I think this is a bad match-up.

These teams are pretty similiar in that they both have weaknesses in their pass defenses and strengths in their pass offenses. I think the key to a Texans victory is the pass rush. If they can get after Brady and disrupt the pass attack, they will have an opportunity to win. If they give Brady time to sit back and pick apart the depleted secondary, it will be tough to keep up.

[Mike]

Preliminary report is roof closed, due to 40% chance of rain. This is a pseudo playoff game. I hope all the folks that did not show up for the Seattle game have climbed back on the bandwagon.

I am planning on being loud and cheering my lungs out. Let's really try to be the "best fans in the National Football League."

[Arky]

Announcers have been named: Kevin Harlan and Solomon Wilcots - same announcers who did the Rams game two games ago.

CBS @ 12 noon CST

Also worth noting, in the Houston area and most of Texas (except Metroplex, El Paso area), the followup game on CBS is the Ravens vs. Raiders game. Of course, following that game might be a moot point if the Texans don't come through.... The bookies think the Denver vs KC game is the least likely to go the other way as Denver is a 13 point favorite.... the Ravens and Jets are currently about 10 pt favorites...

The Texans are now favored by 7.5 to 9 points depending on which sportsbook you go by.... a very strange spread to say the least....

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by Arky

The Texans are now favored by 7.5 to 9 points depending on which sportsbook you go by.... a very strange spread to say the least....

Vegas obviously thinks Belichek will rest his starters for most of the game, which seems like a big assumption to make ?
Often in games like this there's no spread, no book offered since the priority the Pats asssign to winning the game is uncertain.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

Vegas obviously thinks Belichek will rest his starters for most of the game, which seems like a big assumption to make ?
Often in games like this there's no spread, no book offered since the priority the Pats asssign to winning the game is uncertain.

Just guessing but they may be thinking that NE has already clinched and therefore they will have a letdown..... Doesn't mean that NE will be "resting". Brady, et al may play the whole game... they may not play "inspired", though... What's the motive? 3rd seed? Big deal... It's looking like the road to the AFC championship game is going through Indy and San Diego anyway so, 3rd seed may not mean much...

If the oddsmakers wanted to entice the Eastern/New England money into the mix, then they give the Texans the big number.... Frankly, I'd probably have it more like a pick'em game or Texans by two... but 7.5? 9?

There was a time roughly 15-25 years ago when you could really scarf on the last 2 games of the season when teams had already clinched.... Betting the dog against a favored-and-already-clinched team was almost an automatic win. The Jets covering (and winning) against an undefeated Colts team last week is a perfect example. (Just imagine if you had wagered on the Colts - I reckon there are some real unhappy people in Indy with the way *that* unfolded) Nowadays, it is almost like the oddsmakers overcompensate for this situation - thus the crazy spread....

[TheMatrix31]

I'm going to be really pissed off if the Texans win, Baltimore or Denver loses, but the Jets win. Eff the Colts.

[HPF Bob]

People will think Denver will win easily however the Broncos have won only twice in their last nine games (one of which was a thrashing of KC at Arrowhead) but Denver has a 3-0 division record on the road this year and yet 0-2 at home. Wouldn't shock me at all to see them lose, especially if the Chiefs hang around for three quarters. Matt Cassel, in particular, has something to prove.

[nero THE zero]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

People will think Denver will win easily however the Broncos have won only twice in their last nine games (one of which was a thrashing of KC at Arrowhead) but Denver has a 3-0 division record on the road this year and yet 0-2 at home. Wouldn't shock me at all to see them lose, especially if the Chiefs hang around for three quarters. Matt Cassel, in particular, has something to prove.

I agree, Bob. It was my impression that the Denver game was probably our safest bet out of the three. But, I've learned that when my expectations are that much more radically different than Vegas', the fault usually lies within my reasoning rather than their's.

[Big Texas]

I think the biggest issue here is going to be Kubiak vs. Bilichick. Both teams are very similar. The only problem here is that one coach is one of the most winning-est coaches of this decade while the other has shown that he can be completely confused at times.

Kubiak needs to come out with 2-3 different game plans. He also needs to be able to ADJUST at the half. Something he has not done all season. The key to this game is ADJUST, ADJUST, ADJUST.

Also it is sad to say but we have nobody to hold Randy Moss-at the corner or safety. So we definitely cannot have mental lapses by whomever is playing the FS. Whether it be Busing or Barber.

We cannot let a cerebral QB like Brady just sit back and destroy us. We need our probowlers to step up this game.

[HPF Bob]

It should be noted that the Broncos, under Shanahan/Kubiak were one of the toughest teams for Belichick's Patriots to beat over the years, including a playoff game several years ago when the Patriot dynasty was close to cemented.

This defense isn't really up to Belichick's normal standards but I don't think our wounded Texans are up to the ability of the old Broncos to run the ball either.

I have to believe New England is the better team going into this. Like last week in Miami, the Texans have to show up in a playoff mindset and jump to an early lead. That will make Houston more confident and make New England focus on staying healthy for the coming week when it really counts.

[NBT]

What...........? The Texans adjust? Unheard of! I think Baby Shan comes out with a good first half game plan, but no idea what to do the second half. JMHO

[Big Texas]

Originally Posted by NBT

What...........? The Texans adjust? Unheard of! I think Baby Shan comes out with a good first half game plan, but no idea what to do the second half. JMHO

Exactly my point. At some point Kyle or Kubiak (whomever) needs to realize that this is the pros. No team (not even Detroit) is gonna let you just whoop up on them ALL game long with the SAME game plan. At the half they will review what you have been doing and try to stop it.

For some odd reason Kyle or Kubiak (again whomever) seems to think otherwise. They consistently start the 3rd qtr with the same ol bag of tricks. Then you have situations like last game where you put up a goose egg for much of the second half. Barely getting 3 points out of the second half.

Belichick will definitely make the adjustments. Its up to us to be prepared for those adjustments. But the fact that they haven't done it all year is what makes me think that we will get beat. I am just gonna leave it right there. Who knows whats gonna happen.

[Arky]

The Texans are the biggest choke artists in the NFL.

This is the worst spread in NFL history.

Wow, the dude over at walterfootball.com is about as subtle as a sledgehammer. Can't say I share his love for hyperbole... At any rate, he makes some good points and likes New England 24-20. Here's the full jist of his comments:

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: This line would seem to indicate that the Patriots won't be playing their starters, but that's hardly the case; I'll discuss this further in the recap, but Bill Belichick said that no healthy starters will be rested this week.

I expect to see Tom Brady playing for at least three quarters. Brady finally looked healthy for the first time in about a month last week, going 23-of-26 for 267 yards and four touchdowns. You may argue that those numbers were a byproduct of Jacksonville's horrific defense, and I couldn't dispute that. However, Houston's secondary isn't very good either.

The Texans really excel at stopping the run, so don't expect as many long Sammy Morris runs this week. Still, I can't see Houston's defense having much success as long as Brady is in the game.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Speaking of poor secondaries, New England's has had its share of embarrassment in that area this year. However, it's worth noting that the Patriots just completely shut down David Garrard, so perhaps their defensive backfield has improved.

Having said that, it's pretty difficult to contain Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson. The Patriots don't have the pass rush to get to Schaub, who has taken just one sack in the past three weeks. Schaub will have all the time in the world to torch New England's secondary.

Like the Patriots, Houston's ground attack won't be much of a factor. I have no faith in Arian Foster, and New England stops the run pretty well.

RECAP: In 2005, the Patriots were locked into the No. 4 seed. Brady and the starters played only one quarter against the Dolphins in Week 17, ultimately losing, 28-26 to a hot Miami squad that had ripped off six straight victories (but finished at 9-7). That was the Doug Flutie drop kick game.

However, just one year later, New England was the No. 4 seed again, but had a chance to move up to No. 3 with an Indianapolis loss. The Patriots played the Titans, who needed a victory to get into the playoffs. In that contest, Brady played three quarters, beating Tennessee, 40-23.

This game seems a lot like the 2006 iteration. The Patriots are currently No. 3 but could move down to No. 4 with a loss and a Cincinnati win. You may wonder what the difference between those seeds are. Think about it this way: If New England is the top-seeded team remaining come the AFC Championship - a very likely scenario if they beat San Diego; the Colts have given up - they would host the Bengals. If the Patriots lose this contest, they'd have to travel to Cincinnati instead for the AFC title game.

This is the worst spread in NFL history. The assumption is that this game means nothing to the Patriots, which is dead wrong. That's exactly why Belichick said his healthy starters would play.

But what about the Texans? Don't they need a victory more than New England? Of course they do. And that's exactly why I love the Pats here. The Texans are the biggest choke artists in the NFL. How are they going to win this game, let alone cover a touchdown? I don't get it.

I'm strongly considering this as my January NFL Pick of the Month. I'll make my decision later in the week.

[HPF Bob]

So, when the Texans had great comebacks at Tennessee and at Arizona, that wasn't making halftime adjustments? When they beat up Cincinnati and Buffalo in the second half, there were no halftime adjustments there either?

[Big Texas]

I am not saying that Kubiak is completely incompetent, I am merely suggesting that his halftime adjustments are not really good. As for those games I think they were meltdowns by the opposing team more than "adjustments" at the half; also the steady play of our improving defensive unit helped out as well.

I understand that my post may have been a bit exaggerated but it is not far from the truth.

We need Kubiak to show that he is capable of out scheming the opposition.

[mussop]

Originally Posted by Big Texas

I am not saying that Kubiak is completely incompetent, I am merely suggesting that his halftime adjustments are not really good. As for those games I think they were meltdowns by the opposing team more than "adjustments" at the half; also the steady play of our improving defensive unit helped out as well.

I understand that my post may have been a bit exaggerated but it is not far from the truth.

We need Kubiak to show that he is capable of out scheming the opposition.

Your post wasnt exaggerated at all. Kubiak SUCKS at making in game adjustments. Bob please tell us what adjustments we made in the games you named. What exactly did we do different in the second half of those games that makes you think Kubiak is even capable of making the simplest of moves to change the flow of a game?