Connor Barwin Sacks Prediction

[cland]

How many sacks will Connor Barwin produce his rookie year?

[Dennis2112]

7.5 sacks

Slow start with a strong kick in the second half of the season.

That's my prediction...

[HPF Bob]

I'm admittedly going to be a pessimist here (although more optimistic than at least one of you). He didn't have much experience as a d-lineman in college, doesn't seem to have much technique and I'm unsure how often he's going to get onto the field in Bush's defensive scheme.

Barwin's a good athlete with a promising upside but I'm going into this year with rather low expectations for him. Much like fellow Bearcat Antwan Peek, he's going to have to learn his position and find his niche before he sees a lot of playing time. And, no, I don't see Barwin as being like Peek. He probably reminds me more of Babin. Hopefully, his career will be better than Peek and Babin combined.

[barrett]

Just out of curiosity, what reminds you of Babin?

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by barrett

Just out of curiosity, what reminds you of Babin?

You didn't ask me, but here's my 2 cents worth anyway.
I never worry about the PC BS, so I'll just come right out and say it - like
Babin he's a white-boy who comes from a not-so-big-time football program, though granted the U of Cinncinati is a bit more prominent than Western Michigan. And also like Babin he's a "high-motor", over-achiever type who's Draft position was surely elevated as a result of his combine/pro-day performances.
And he's still in the midst of a positional transition - he was a TE for most of his college career and he's fighting a steep learning curve as he continues to
learn about playing DE. Babin on the other hand of course went from a DE to 3-4 OLB in the pros. So there's all that uncertainty about a successful position conversion.
So yea, they got atleast a couple things in common.

[Arky]

I see this years as a learning year for Barwin so I've got him in the 3-4 sack range. But with many QB pressures. It's not the sacks so much as the pressure - don't let the opposing QB have all day and make him throw before he's ready...

[HPF Bob]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

You didn't ask me, but here's my 2 cents worth anyway.
I never worry about the PC BS, so I'll just come right out and say it - like
Babin he's a white-boy who comes from a not-so-big-time football program, though granted the U of Cinncinati is a bit more prominent than Western Michigan. And also like Babin he's a "high-motor", over-achiever type who's Draft position was surely elevated as a result of his combine/pro-day performances.
And he's still in the midst of a positional transition - he was a TE for most of his college career and he's fighting a steep learning curve as he continues to
learn about playing DE. Babin on the other hand of course went from a DE to 3-4 OLB in the pros. So there's all that uncertainty about a successful position conversion.
So yea, they got atleast a couple things in common.

That's pretty good. IMO, Peek was all about speed. There was no finesse at all. It was simply "I'm faster than you are and I will run past you". And if that meant he overran the play or got blown up at the point of attack, hey, that's not his fault. He was just there to be fast.

You've hit on most of the comparisons to Babin - small-program guy who has to learn a new position, expected to outquick his blocker but is a little undersized for a DE. Needs to learn some technique at the next level if he's going to have any success.

I wouldn't say that Babin and Barwin are a one-to-one correlation but I do see some similarities.

[papabear]

I think I accidentally hit the 7-8 button, but I meant 5-6....and that's being optimistic. There are some similarities with Babin, but I think there are superficial at best.

Cincinnati faces much stiffer competition than Western Michigan. They might not face an SEC schedule, but I don't think you could put those two schools on the same level. Barwin looks more physically impressive to me. Maybe the bad taste in my mouth from Babin is influencing that a little bit, but Barwin looks quicker and stronger to me.

They both did a position change, but Barwin at least got a year for a test drive at the College level as opposed to Babin who had never played LB before. There's still a learning curve their, but they are just two different situations IMO. Plus I liked the smarts I saw out of Barwin. It was just one play, but he sniffed out a screen to his side and jumped in the air to bat the ball down. Just one play, but that's a heady play for a kid with only year experience at the position. Besides this is the time of year to get overly optimistic about little things at practice.

The other big difference between the two is that Babin was expected to come out right away and start...Barwin is going to be asked to mainly do one thing this year. Rush the passer, and that happens to be his strong suit. He won't need to be able to handle 50-snaps a game and worry about the run and the pass. He's just going to come in and do his thing while learning the other nuances of the position slowly. His sack numbers will likely be vary low because he won't be on the filed as much as a full time starter might be. With Mario on the opposite side, and a hopefully improved pass rush he should get some chances though when he is on the filed.

[barrett]

I don't see many similarities. Babin was a small school over-achiever. He had a stumpy frame and was not ever known as quick.

Barwin is from a Big school (cincinatti plays in a major conference, played OU in the non-conference, and went to a BCS game last year), he is a project who needs to grow (as opposed to a more finished over-achiever), he is long and rangy, and is know for his athleticism and quickness.

I just don't see much in common. I would say the rawness and athleticism are far more like Peek than Babin.

[nunusguy]

I'm gonna take the liberty of digressing a bit more here because this thread drifted off to a comparison of Babin & Barwin, which brought to my recollection the difficulty Dom Capers had here in Houston finding a steller edge-rushing OLB type for the 3-4 for which he's so identified. And of course one Jason Babin was at the top of that search.
After David Carr himself, I dunno but wonder if any player or subject here in Houston has been as controversial or as widely discussed as Capers trying to make Babin our annointed sack-rushing specilialist ?
Wonder how Capers is doing with his new assignment in GB to convert their 4-3 to a 3-4 ? And is Jason Babin even still in the NFL ?

[NBT]

I made the 5-6 sack choice. He will play behind Mario at the beginning, so he won't get much chance from that perspective. But if he shows aptitude, I think the coaches will find some way to get him some plays.

[cloudwasher]

Im going to be conservative in my estimate and say that based on his limited game play (he'll be off the bench... not likely to overtake antonio for the starting job, more likely to come in on pass rushing situations) and his lack of technique (was only a DE for one year in Cincy, great athleticism and potential but he has a lot to learn as far as his technique goes), He'll get 3 IMO.. although I wouldn't be surprised at him getting as many as 5 or as few as 1 1/2...

[HPF Bob]

Is the rebuilt Big East really all that better than the MAC? After they lost Miami, VA Tech and BC to the ACC, they added Cincy, Memphis and Louisville. Three metro basketball schools. I suppose I could use some ranking data but, in general, the Big East has fallen off in a big way and is part of the BCS only because no conference has ever been kicked out. I don't think the Big East is as good as the Mountain West.

Yes, it is important that Barwin has had a year of college at DE but I'm just not that impressed with the quality of the Big East. IMO, there's only four quality football conferences - Big 10, Big 12, SEC and ACC.

[barrett]

In 2008 Cincinnati played 5 ranked teams. In 2004 Western Michigan played no ranked teams. In 2008 Cincinnate won 11 games and went to a BCS bowl. In 2004 Western Michigan went 5-7. These are not two programs anywhere near each other.

In addition to the college differences, there are big differences in how the two conferences produce pro talent. The big east has had more than twice as many players drafted this decade (120 vs 57) and five times as many 1st rounders (10 vs 2).

There may be a big difference between the SEC and the Big East, but there is an even bigger difference between the Big East and the MAC. Barwin playing for Cincinnati is nothing like Babin playing for Western Michigan.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by barrett

I would say the rawness and athleticism are far more like Peek than Babin.

I tend to agree with this. I don't see much Babin in Barwin's skillset.

Originally Posted by nunusguy

And is Jason Babin even still in the NFL ?

The Eagles signed him to a one-year contract on 8/4. I'm guessing he might not be much more than a camp body for them though...?

Originally Posted by cloudwasher

Im going to be conservative in my estimate and say that based on his limited game play (he'll be off the bench... not likely to overtake antonio for the starting job, more likely to come in on pass rushing situations) and his lack of technique (was only a DE for one year in Cincy, great athleticism and potential but he has a lot to learn as far as his technique goes), He'll get 3 IMO.. although I wouldn't be surprised at him getting as many as 5 or as few as 1 1/2...

I'll grant you the lack of technique. But since he is expected to see the field in pass situations, that's usually when the sacks occur anyway. Six sacks is a safe guesstimate. Heck, Okoye got six sacks as a rookie, so sometimes it might be about just being in the right place at the right time, and being opposite Mario Williams is usually enough to qualify.

[Blitzwood]

I think he's gonna suprise the heck out of everybody and get 9.5 sks his first year, barring any injury of course.

[painekiller]

FYI my current vote is 0, because we are to far from the season, and we have not seen him play against the better talent.

I will up the bid as the player develops.

[NBT]

Booo.....PK! Where's your sense of adventure? Seriously though, I put Barwin in a much higher position than Peek or that other idiot we gave way too much for.