2009 Draft Order - thru Week 16

[Keith]

GBNReport.com has the 2009 draft order updated thru Week 16:

# Team W-L Opp W-L %

1 Detroit 0-15 .558
2F St. Louis 2-13 .535
3F Kansas City 2-13 .535
4 Cincinnati 3-11-1 .560
5 Seattle 4-11 .498
6 Oakland 4-11 .521
7 Cleveland 4-11 .573
8 Green Bay 5-10 .519
9 Jacksonville 5-10 .535
10 San Francisco 6-9 .456
11 Buffalo 7-8 .450
12 Houston 7-8 .515
13 San Diego 7-8 .517
14 Washington 8-7 .481
15 New Orleans 8-7 .492
16 Denver 8-7 .454
17 Arizona 8-7 .490
18 Philadelphia 8-6-1 .523
19 New York Jets 9-6 .465
20 Chicago 9-6 .469
21 Tampa Bay 9-6 .479
22 Detroit (from Dallas) 9-6 .498
23 Minnesota 9-6 .508
24 New England 10-5 .479
25 Miami 10-5 .458
26 Atlanta 10-5 .460
27 Baltimore 10-5 .519
28 Philadelphia (from Carolina) 11-4 .492
29 Indianapolis 11-4 .494
30 Pittsburgh 11-4 .523
31 New York Giants 12-3 .498
32 Tennessee 13-2.452

I haven't quite worked through all (any) of the scenarios, but at first glance it seems, pending Sunday's game against the Bears, the highest the Texans could pick would be 11th and the lowest could be 16th, right?

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by Keith

the highest the Texans could pick would be 11th and the lowest could be 16th, right?

That looks about right to me, remember one of the AFC West teams will be picking 22 or above, all non playoff teams pick before the playoff teams no matter how bad the record of the playoff team.

[idymoe]

Interesting that only one team's opponents have a worse won/lost % than Tennessee.

Of the top 10 teams, Atlanta and Miami opponents have the next worse records.

[mussop]

Originally Posted by Keith

GBNReport.com has the 2009 draft order updated thru Week 16:



I haven't quite worked through all (any) of the scenarios, but at first glance it seems, pending Sunday's game against the Bears, the highest the Texans could pick would be 11th and the lowest could be 16th, right?

I believe you are right. I barrowed this from another MB. The credit goes to a Hooston Texan.

Here are some scenarios heading into the last week of the season.

Theoretical Range
1. Right now, nine teams (Detroit, St.Louis, KC, Cincy, Clev, Sea, Oak, Jax, GB) will have worse records than us no matter what. So that eliminates slots 1-9 for us.

2. Fifteen teams (Phi, TB, Dall, Chi, Minn, NYJ, Atl, Mia, NE, Balt, Car, Pitt, Indy, NYG and Tenn) will have better records than us. So slots 18-32 are eliminated.

3. We could end up tied with Arizona and both San Diego and Denver, but two of those three are getting playoff spots and thus cannot pick ahead of us if their record is the same as ours. So slots 16 and 17 are eliminated for us.

4. So that leaves picks 10, 11, 12, 13, 14 and 15 for us. Other teams in the mix for those picks are (counting Ariz and SD/Den) are Ariz, SD, Den, SF, Buff, NO, Wash.

5. Tiebreaker after record is opponents' winning percentage. Our opponents percentage is .515. Of the teams listed in #4 above, only SD (.517) has one above .500. So we're pretty much assured of losing the tiebreaker to everyone but San Diego.

If we beat the Bears to finish 8-8:
1. San Francisco (6-9) can't finish ahead of us, so we won't have the 10th pick.

2. Buffalo (7-8) picks behind us no matter what in all likelihood. Their opponent's winning percentage (.450) is much lower than ours. So, for practical purposes, we won't have the 11th pick.

3. If we finish 8-8, the outcome of Denver-San Diego is irrelevant to our final position. If Denver wins, they pick after us (better record) while San Diego picks before us (worse record). If San Diego wins, we'll all be 8-8, but San Diego is in the playoffs and picks after us. Denver will beat us in the tiebreaker with their low opponents percentage (.454 to our .515). So either way, one of those two picks before us and the other picks after us. That means we won't have the 12th pick.

4. That leaves Washington and New Orleans (both 8-7). If both win, then we pick #13. If only one wins, we're #14. If both lose, we're #15. (Now, Washington and/or New Orleans could land at other spots besides 13-15, but I'm only working this out for us.)

BOTTOM LINE IF WE BEAT CHICAGO: We're picking 13, 14 or 15, depending on the outcome of the 'Skins and Saints games.



If we lose to the Bears to finish 7-9.
1. We'll still lose to SF (6-9 record, opponents record of .450) in a tiebreaker, so we won't pick 10th.

2. New Orleans and Washington will pick after us no matter what; they can't finish worse than 8-8. So we won't pick 14th or 15th.

3. So we're left with 11, 12 and 13. If Buffalo wins to finish 8-8, we can't finish 13th. But, if Buffalo loses, we lose the tiebreaker to them, so we won't pick 11th.

4. If San Diego beats Denver, both will have a better record, so we can't pick 13th, meaning we pick 11 or 12 depending on if the Bills win. BUT: if San Diego loses, they would also finish 7-9 and we could win the tiebreaker against them (too close to call at this point; right now our opponents are .515 and theirs is .517). So the best we can do is 11 if (a) Buffalo wins, (b) San Diego loses and (c) our opponents' percentage comes in less than SD's.

BOTTOM LINE IF WE LOSE TO CHICAGO: We're picking 11, 12 or 13 depending on the outcome of NE-Buffalo and Den-SD.

THE BOTTOM OF THE BOTTOM LINE: Our draft slot can only be 11, 12, 13, 14 or 15. Assuming no ties, of course.

[NBT]

Looks like 13, 14, or15, which if we do our due dilligence drafting, we should come out with two - 3 good ones, and one or more starters in this upcoming draft.

[NBT]

Think it ended up being the #15 spot.

http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftorder2009.php