Miami making moves (for Watson deal?)

bikerack · #1 03-26-2021, 02:33 PM

Miami moved back from #3 to #12 today and then moved up from #12 to #6.

The "In The Loop" guys on 610AM immediately started thinking this was Miami setting themselves up to make a move for Watson. They could essentially only trade away the picks from other teams and keep their own stash.

The only way this really works though is if Miami knows something behind-the-scenes about the lawsuits or they just don't care and think it will all be OK.

Personally, I think they will do something else soon (Watson or not)...these are a lot of moves to make all at once this far from the draft.

This is their draft capital (rounds 1-3 only) for the next 3 years.

Quote:

2021:
1st - #6 from PHI
1st - #18
2nd - #36 from HOU
2nd - #50
3rd - #81

2022:
1st (from SF)
2nd
3rd
3rd (from SF)

2023:
1st
1st (from SF)
2nd
3rd

bikerack · #2 03-26-2021, 02:40 PM

One other note...if I were a team wanting to trade for Watson right now, I would make some/all of the picks conditional.

For example, if I were the Dolphins, I might offer the following:

2021 #6 (just to own his rights)
2021 #50 (just to own his rights)
2022 1st (that drops to a 2nd or 3rd or 4th based on playing time in 2021 due to suspensions)
2023 1st (that drops to a 2nd or 3rd or 4th based on playing time in 2022 due to suspensions)
Various other 2nds or 3rds

There is a small chance that the NFL doesn't do anything until the legal battle is over, which could go on for 1-2 years.

barrett · #3 03-26-2021, 04:45 PM

I don't think anyone is lining up to give draft picks for Watson right now. They can all just line up to do so in 6 months after seeing it play out. There is no reason to jump in right now.

I think the Dolphins move was about trading out of QB range since they don't want to draft the 3rd best QB to put next to Tua. If the guy isn't a clear upgrade then move back to 6 and draft a guy Tua will throw to (or whoever is QB in a year). Either way they turned Landry Tunsil into unlimited draft capital.

Keith · #4 03-27-2021, 10:10 AM

My initial read on the moves yesterday were that the Dolphins and 49ers were abandoning the thought of acquiring Watson prior to the draft. I suppose those moves could be interpreted any number of ways... mine is simply speculation.

But the oddest thing about it (which I can see fuels Watson trade speculation) is how far out from the draft these trades were made. So who knows. But it seems to me (i.e. I don't want to do any research) these types of trades would happen within a week or so of the draft. Especially for the third pick... the 49ers have no control over what the teams picking ahead of them do. So their front office, a month out, has to feel 100% comfortable with three players to pay so much (in additional picks) to move to that spot. That to me is odd.

barrett · #5 03-27-2021, 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Keith

My initial read on the moves yesterday were that the Dolphins and 49ers were abandoning the thought of acquiring Watson prior to the draft. I suppose those moves could be interpreted any number of ways... mine is simply speculation.

But the oddest thing about it (which I can see fuels Watson trade speculation) is how far out from the draft these trades were made. So who knows. But it seems to me (i.e. I don't want to do any research) these types of trades would happen within a week or so of the draft. Especially for the third pick... the 49ers have no control over what the teams picking ahead of them do. So their front office, a month out, has to feel 100% comfortable with three players to pay so much (in additional picks) to move to that spot. That to me is odd.

I think it's probably a sign that the top pick is totally settled (Lawerence) and SF feels great about 2 other QBs (Wilson and Lance? Fields?). That means QBs in the first 3 spots and Miami moves back up to 6 to assure them one of the playmakers at 6 (Chase, Pitts, Waddle, Smith).

Keith · #6 03-27-2021, 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by barrett

and SF feels great about 2 other QBs (Wilson and Lance? Fields?).

Yep, makes sense. Just smells a tad desperate on the part of the 49ers to be comfortable with the consensus third best QB to pay this price. Also, somewhat rhetorically, how much have they given up on Jimmy Garappolo? I obviously don't follow the 49ers, so maybe this must be some kind of philosophical thing Kyle Shanahan is seeing?

Keith · #7 04-07-2021, 12:41 AM

The Panthers, another team once thought to be interested in acquiring Watson, traded for Sam Darnold this week. With the list of cases building against Watson off the field, seems increasingly unlikely he will be traded before the draft, and it seems increasingly likely the league could suspend him as he continues his threat to hold out.

Arky · #8 04-12-2021, 01:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Keith

The Panthers, another team once thought to be interested in acquiring Watson, traded for Sam Darnold this week. With the list of cases building against Watson off the field, seems increasingly unlikely he will be traded before the draft, and it seems increasingly likely the league could suspend him as he continues his threat to hold out.

He wants out and his value is getting destroyed as he leaves. That is so Texan...

My inner conspiracy theorist wonders if Watson knew this (the law suits) were going to happen and was part of his reason for wanting to get out of Dodge....

bikerack · #9 04-14-2021, 10:41 AM

Quote:

My inner conspiracy theorist wonders if Watson knew this (the law suits) were going to happen and was part of his reason for wanting to get out of Dodge....

I have had the same thoughts...I need to go back and see when Watson first asked for the trade and check it against the email thread that Hardin released last week.

EDIT...

Adam Schefter's tweet about the trade demand was on Jan 28th. https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...de-sources-say

The first email in the thread that Hardin released was dated Feb 3rd and it refers to previous conversations. https://blacksportsonline.com/2021/0...tson-emails-1/

Yeah...the trade demands were a result of all of this.

Arky · #10 04-15-2021, 12:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bikerack

I have had the same thoughts...

Good research!

WMH · #11 04-15-2021, 08:34 AM

Greetings all - Been a while.

It is quite interesting on the timeline for Deshaun.
Also interesting when you throw in the firing of Palic, and the equipment guys (who rarely get fired, even with regime changes).

The Texans were vilified by the media for all of these actions, but maybe there were some legitimate reasons behind them that they did not wish to disclose to the public? Makes you think -

Now the team is in a pickle. They literally can't afford to cut him due to dead cap issues, and his trade value is likely at an all time low. Will be interesting to see if they sit on him till next season to get a bidding war going to raise the value.