Official Texans vs. Jags Game Thread, 12/30/2018

[Arky]

The 10-5 Texans will be hosting the 5-10 Jaguars in their season finale in an early game Sunday at NRG stadium. The Texans are coming off a 32-30 road loss to the Eagles; the Jags are coming off a 17-7 road win over the Dolphins. QB Blake Bortles is expected to start for the Jags. Texans need a win to clinch AFC South and at least #3 seed in the playoffs.

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TV = CBS (channel 11 local), noon CST, Sunday, 12/30/2018

Announcers = Andrew Catalon, James Lofton

The line = Texans by 6½ to7

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Other Sunday viewing in the Houston area:

FOX (early) = Dallas @ NY Giants, Kevin Burkhardt, Charles Davis

CBS (late) = Cleveland @ Baltimore, Jim Nantz, Tony Romo

FOX (late) = Philadelphia @ Washington, Chris Myers, Daryl Johnston

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Prime time:

SNF = Indianapolis @ Tennessee (NBC)

(note: No TNF or MNF this week)

[Arky]

Sean Pendergast - NFL Week 17: Jaguars-Texans — Four Things To Watch For:

Things would have been much, much easier if the Texans could have gotten a defensive stop in the last two minutes against the Philadelphia Eagles last Sunday. That would have set up the ultra simple "win and you're the 2-seed" scenario that felt so good for a week. Now, the Texans need the Jets to beat the Patriots on Sunday for that to even be in play.

Oh, there's also the pesky little situation in which an injury-riddled Texans squad needs to handle its business at home against Jacksonville on Sunday, a task that will be much harder than the standings right now would have you believe. If the Texans win, it's pretty simple — they'll be, at worst, the 3-seed in the AFC. If they lose, they will almost assuredly be the 6-seed and have to travel to Baltimore or Indianapolis or Nashville for a wild card round playoff game. (A tie between the Colts and Titans is the only scenario under which the Texans can lose and still win the division.)

Let's dig into this further, with four thing to watch for.....

4. Respecting the opponent
It's easy to look at the Jags' 5-10 record on the season, and look at their dysfunction at the quarterback position — Blake Bortles and Cody Kessler, stand up! — and say "Well, they're back to being the same old Jags," and certainly this is a team that hasn't come close to backing up all of the bluster from their star cornerback Jalen Ramsey this past offseason. However, they still have a ton of talent on defense, a capable running back in Leonard Fournette, and nothing to lose. That's a dangerous combination going against a Texans team with major offensive line issues and injuries gutting the skill positions. The Jags have been down-to-the-final-moments competitive in all but one of their games since losing to the Texans in Week 7, and falling to 3-4 on the season. They shut out the Colts a few weeks ago, and that SHOULD be enough to get everyone's attention in the building over at NRG Stadium.

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1. Deshaun Watson, unbreakable
It's probably been this way all season, but it's far more pronounced now with the Texans' issues running the football and the secondary giving up over 400 yards per game in the month of December — this team will go as far as Deshaun Watson can take them. The first Jags game of the season was his first turnover free game since his NFL debut in 2017. Since then, he's kept from throwing picks in every game other than the win over the Redskins. I think this game will be close on Sunday, but in the end, the final result will boil down to "The Texans have Deshaun Watson, and the Jags don't."

SPREAD: Texans -7.5
PREDICTION: Texans 17, Jaguars 13
RECORD: 9-6 SU, 7-8 ATS

More at link.

[HPF Bob]

Injury reports say Lamar Miller will be back and the OL is healing (for whatever good that is). Demaryus is gone (maybe for good) but it's next man up. Would like to see Houston in more 2-TE sets since they are much healthier there and can stand to have some help blocking.

I'm really surprised at myself to say I hope Kareem Jackson sees more playing time. Is it me or does it seem Honey Badger is the guy trailing the opponent on every coverage breakdown? Let's see more Andre Hal.

Every AFC team has weaknesses but the Texans seem to lack a killer instinct. That's what I fear is their playoff destiny. It's like they still think Osweiler or Hoyer is under center. No doubt Watson has confidence but do the Texans believe in him?

[Arky]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

............

Every AFC team has weaknesses but the Texans seem to lack a killer instinct. That's what I fear is their playoff destiny. It's like they still think Osweiler or Hoyer is under center. No doubt Watson has confidence but do the Texans believe in him?

I put a lot of that on OB. He's the one calling the shots. There have been 16, 17 and 19 point wins this year but most of the time, it is the Texans doing just enough to get by.... On the positive side, the Texans haven't really been "owned" by anyone this year - so far. Maybe the New England game; it was not as close as the score indicated.

I want to see more Vyncint Smith - he can be used as a Fuller-lite. More of the young TE's. I want to see what Buddy Howell can do at RB. When the running game isn't working, nothing like a short West Coast passing game to keep the chains moving but I just haven't seen much of that from the Texans this year....

[Keith]

With Lamar Miller back, D'Onta Foreman listed among the inactives today. Also, Johnathan Joseph listed inactive, which is kind of a bummer... but then again, ain't nobody scared of the Jaguars passing offense. Coutee predictably inactive, too.

[Keith]

Mike Tyson block in the back on Chark leads to a fumbled punt return by DeAndre Carter, 12:03 remaining in the 1st quarter. Ball at Texans' 9.

[Arky]

Texans hold the Jags to a FG after the terrible interference call that was recovered by the Jags. A guy has to have room to fair catch the ball - just not right.

Jags 3, Texans 0

10:08 left in the 1st qtr.

[Keith]

Texans defense stout again, Jaguars settle for 25-yard field goal.

Jaguars 3
Texans 0
10:08 1st quarter

[Arky]

Texans put a drive together and get denied at the goal line. Settle for the FG. Fairbairn good from 23.

Texans 3, Jags 3

5:20 left in the 1st qtr.

[Arky]

Jags cough up the Texan punt and the Texans recover. Pass interference on newcomer WR Steven Mitchell, Jr. sets up Texans at the Jag 10. 2nd and goal at the Jax 5 coming up as the 1st qtr ends.

Next play, Watson keeps for the 5 yard TD.

Texans 10, Jags 3

14:56 left in the half.

[Keith]

Steven Mitchell Jr. is the injury replacement for Demaryius Thomas. Did a great job drawing a DPI call on the Texans TD drive. Reportedly ran a 4.44 forty at his pro day. Combined with Vyncint Smith, some speed options to go opposite Hopkins.

[Arky]

Miller punches it in from 8 yards for the TD.

Texans 17, Jags 3

3:01 left in the half.

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Texans defense looks pissed off (good).

Watson running/keeping more than normal....

[Arky]

Halftime and the score remains:

Texans 17, Jags 3

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Pats 21, Jets 3

Panthers 23, Saints 0

[Arky]

An uneventful 3rd qtr.

Personal foul penalty by the Jags on a FG attempt leads another series of downs but ultimately another FG attempt. Fairbairn good from 24.

Texans 20, Jags 3

10:52 left in the game.

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NYG 25, Cowboys 21 (10:38 left)

[Arky]

Final score:

Texans 20, Jags 3

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Guess we expect to see Watson the Tailback next week..

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by Arky

Final score:

Texans 20, Jags 3

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Guess we expect to see Watson the Tailback next week..

Right because up to the very end Watson not just end the game but O'Briene is calling his number in rushing plays. O'Brien definitely dosen't believe in babying his QBs.
Anyway 11-5 after beginning 0-3 is actually pretty impressive.

[chuck]

Zierlein speculated that BOB was running Watson so much because he wants next week's opponent to have to spend time game planning that.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by chuck

Zierlein speculated that BOB was running Watson so much because he wants next week's opponent to have to spend time game planning that.

That suggests guile on OB's part....

If memory serves, we should learn times and pairings sometime during the SNF game tonight.....

[chuck]

Early game on Saturday, in case there was any doubt at all.

[barrett]

During the game today CBS ran a graphic about how a team has gone last to first for 15 of the past 16 seasons. This year the Texans and Bears did it. They marvel over how this happens.

How it happens is the NFL openly doctors the schedule to make it happen. 13% of your schedule is determined by your divisional finish. So last year the Jags used the last place schedule to win a division and everyone declared them good. Then they played a first place schedule with the same roster and went 5-11. The NFL is a tiny sample size league and a few extra wins here or there change the whole tone of a season.

So the Texans got last place last year and because of that got to beat the Broncos and Browns (last place teams from a year ago). The Colts went 1-1 against the Raiders and Bengals. The Titans went 0-2 against the Ravens and Chargers. That means every team went 9-5 against their identical schedule and the division was handed to the Texans and the playoffs to the Colts via artificial parity.

It honestly amazes me that the NFL does this and everyone just accepts it. There is no way MLB would just say the Rangers got last so they get an extra 10 games against the Tigers and Orioles next year while the Astros play 10 extra against the Red Sox and Indians. But somehow the NFL sells parity through a doctored schedule and everyone just accepts it.