Official Texans @ Patriots Playoff Game Thread, 1/14/2017

[Arky]

The 10-7 Texans are off to Foxboro this Saturday night for a divisional round playoff game with the 14-2 New England Patriots. The Texans won their Wild Card round game last week defeating the Oakland Raiders 27-14 while the Patriots, the #1 seed, were on a bye. The Texans will have their work cut out for them as the Patriots are the odds on favorite (33:20) to win the Super Bowl and the Texans are the least favored to win the Super Bowl (80:1).

Pats QB Tom Brady is in MVP talk and has had an excellent year - 3554 yards, 67.4% completion, 28 TDs and 2 INT's in just 12 games. His favorite targets are Julian Edelman (98/1106, 11.3 avg), TE Martellus Bennett (55/701, 12.7 avg) and Chris Hogan (38/680, 17.9 avg). Legarrette Blount (299/1161, 3.9 avg) heads the rushing attack although Dion Lewis (64/283, 4.4 avg) and James White (39/166, 4.3 avg) might see some carries. On the other side of the ball, the Pats defense finished #1 in pts. allowed/game with just 15.6. There were 8th in yds/game with 326.4. That breaks down to 3rd stopping the run (88.6 yds/game) and 12th limiting teams to 237.9 passing yds/game.

The Texan defense has been building momentum as of late and may represent the only chance of the Texans winning. If they don't dominate, it could be a long night....

These two teams met in Week 3 in Foxboro with the Pats winning 27-0 on TNF.

Texans have been given a 15% chance of advancing to the AFC Championship game.

Texans are 2-6 (2-6 ATS) on the road; Patriots are 6-2 (6-2 ATS) at home.

Gametime temps expected to be just below freezing with a 0% chance of precipitation.

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TV = CBS (channel 11 local), 7:15 pm CST, Saturday, 1/14/2017

Announcers = Jim Nantz, Phil Simms

The line = Patriots by 15 to 16½

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Other playoff action:

FOX (Saturday) - Seattle @ Atlanta, 3:35pm CST

NBC (Sunday) - Pittsburgh @ Kansas City, 12:05pm CST

FOX (Sunday) - Green Bay @ Dallas, 3:40pm CST

[HPF Bob]

I figured this game would be the "not ready for prime time" afternoon game instead of the "hey, what else is on tonight?" primetime stinker. Brady, alone, won't hold an audience.

Texans will need to channel all their "us against the world" energy into the game of their lives if they are to have any chance. But if the Patriots are lulled by the regular season game into thinking they can mail this in, the Texans have a slight chance.

The Texans don't seem to suffer much in the cold and if the wind is calm, should be able to move the ball. The other alternate might be a wind so ferocious that the offenses can only realistically score in two of the four halves. Holding down the scoring would be the only way to see Houston overcoming.

[Arky]

Yeah, I think I'm going to take it by quarters.... If it's close after the 1st qtr, well OK - however, if the Pats are already up by 10 or so, then it won't be looking too good. If the Texans are able to keep it close by the half, then I might just let a little hope creep in. If they keep it close by the end of the 3rd qtr., then it is game on and Go Texans.....

Win or lose, the one thing that will come of this game is the playoff experience for the younger guys. They are getting a taste of what it is like to advance in the playoffs and it will give them an intangible that they will have for the rest of their careers....

[nunusguy]

The upcoming weekend, the divisional P-O weekend is the best weekend in all of football IMO and I always enjoy it. I'm still relieved the Texans won the W-C game with Brock performing OK against an average but not bad Raiders defense.
So let's face it we've had some really weird things happen recently like the election victory by the crazy man with the orange hair. Nobody saw that coming least of all any of the socalled experts. Would a Texans upset of the Pats in Foxborough this weekend be as shocking as that political event back in November ? I think it would be right up there with it.
Personally I'm just hoping the Texans keep it interesting for awhile.

[HPF Bob]

2016 was definitely the Year Nobody Saw Coming, not just Trump but BREXIT, WikiLeaks, the Chicago Cubs, and the Cavaliers coming back from 1-3 to knock off the team with the best NBA record ever. Clemson's upset of Alabama continues the trend and any NFL underdogs like the Texans (never advanced past divisional round) or the Chiefs (no Super Bowls since the AFL days) have to take a little bit of heart that the cosmic oddsmakers are making up for lost time.

Unfortunately, I can no longer nod my head at Steve Goodman's great line from "The Dying Cubs Fan's Last Request" (1982) which went:

"You know the Law of Averages states that anything will happen that can.
But the last time the Cubs won the pennant was the last time we dropped a bomb on Japan."

[Arky]

Video - Texans vs. Patriots breakdown, Teddy Covers - TRT 5:45

I thought he was kind to the Texans here, especially with his assessment of their first meeting this year. He's also smart enough not to use the words "no chance".....

[chuck]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

The upcoming weekend, the divisional P-O weekend is the best weekend in all of football IMO and I always enjoy it.

Like BOB talking about left-handed quarterbacks I say it every year - this is by far my favorite week of the season. The fact that the Texans are playing is a nice bonus.

Nate Silver's guys give us a 15% chance to win. I think that may be generous. But as I have said before, the Patriots are not unbeatable.

[chuck]

Dammit, I meant to say Bob. I'm so used to complaining about BOB that I'm now out of practice making fun of Bob. I've got to keep my thoughts better compartmentalized.

[HPF Bob]

The Sklar brothers point out that Osweiler is 2-0 lifetime versus Tom Brady and 2-1 in his career versus Belichick (well, okay, he was the holder in the AFC Championship Game last year but he did beat Brady head-to-head as a Bronco during the 2015 regular season).

[Arky]

Pendergast - NFL Playoffs, Divisional Round: Texans-Patriots

So in analyzing a game like this, there are certain things we should accept as givens, things we absolutely can't count on (knowing full well that some crazy, outlandish, "WHAT IN THE BLUE HELL JUST HAPPENED?!" things will NEED to happen in order for the Texans to pull off the upset).

[HPF Bob]

The conspiracy theorist in me says there's no way CBS wanted to have such a dog matchup for primetime (and, let's face it, we're not talking about the Patriots here) although they love having a CBS-owned sports bar in the stadium which magically nets them an extra home game or two every year.

So the league has instructed the refs to keep it close for the first half, using phantom holding calls if necessary to keep the Texans within a touchdown. In the second half, with the crowd still engaged, the refs will make sure the Patriots win but don't cover. That way, both franchises leave with what they wanted. The Pats get a win and a tuneup for the AFCCG. The Texans leave with some respect, enough to continue rebuilding for another year.

[chuck]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

The conspiracy theorist in me says there's no way CBS wanted to have such a dog matchup for primetime (and, let's face it, we're not talking about the Patriots here) although they love having a CBS-owned sports bar in the stadium which magically nets them an extra home game or two every year.

So the league has instructed the refs to keep it close for the first half, using phantom holding calls if necessary to keep the Texans within a touchdown. In the second half, with the crowd still engaged, the refs will make sure the Patriots win but don't cover. That way, both franchises leave with what they wanted. The Pats get a win and a tuneup for the AFCCG. The Texans leave with some respect, enough to continue rebuilding for another year.

So did Goodell orchestrate Denver's Super Bowl win last year or did the Broncos accomplish that on their own?

[HPF Bob]

Originally Posted by chuck

So did Goodell orchestrate Denver's Super Bowl win last year or did the Broncos accomplish that on their own?

Chuckles, you don't have to go too far to find Patriot fans and Panther fans who thought that the league wanted to write a final chapter for Peyton Manning and can find key moments in the game where an official's ruling might have changed the course of the game.

For example, on Denver's first Super Bowl TD when Von Miller strip-sacked Cam Newton which became a Denver TD. Panther fans will complain that the officials overlooked a helmet to helmet hit by Miller on Newton (a refrain they revised in this year's season opener). Panther fans also thought the ruling of a non-catch via replay just before the sack also set up the Broncos score.

Do I think it's rigged? Not every game, not every play but when the league wants to determine an outcome they can do it. Go find the YouTube video series on the Niners-Seahawks rivalry of a few years ago if you think it's not possible.

[barrett]

Did you just quote other fan conspiracies to support that sometimes fan conspiracies are true?

[HPF Bob]

Sorta like the media reporting repeatedly that Russia stole the election without providing any proof of *how* their involvement changed the result or showing any tangible link that they even tried. Not to mention the whole bull crap about Trump being a Russian asset who hired prostitutes while in Moscow without providing any dates, any reasons nor any motivation.

So, compared to that, the idea the NFL might tilt the scales in a playoff game seem far less crazy than what's been on CNN lately.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

Sorta like the media reporting repeatedly that Russia stole the election without providing any proof of *how* their involvement changed the result or showing any tangible link that they even tried. Not to mention the whole bull crap about Trump being a Russian asset who hired prostitutes while in Moscow without providing any dates, any reasons nor any motivation.

So, compared to that, the idea the NFL might tilt the scales in a playoff game seem far less crazy than what's been on CNN lately.

Did I just come to the wrong site?

[chuck]

Originally Posted by barrett

Did I just come to the wrong site?

I've been telling you people for years that Bob is fking crazy. Maybe you thought I was kidding.

[HPF Bob]

Back to the game...

How many punts will we have in the first quarter? Single digits?

[chuck]

Here we go, men.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

Back to the game...

How many punts will we have in the first quarter? Single digits?

Haha!

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Pats win the toss and defer. Texans to receive.

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Opening kickoff is a touchback. Texan's ball at their 25.

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Pass to Hop gets 4.

L Miller for about 2. 3rd and 4 coming up.

Oz can't find a receiver and gets sacked. Texans have to punt.

Punt is brought back to about the Pats 39. Pat's ball.

13:01 left in the 1st qtr.