Weeks 16 & 17 scheduling for 2016, playoffs

[Arky]

(I'm gonna put this here because the Texans should be in the playoff scenarios all the way till the end)

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Week 16 is set up a little different this year due to Christmas Day landing on a Sunday. There will be just be two NFL games on Christmas Day (Sunday) with the majority of the games occuring one day earlier (Saturday the 24th). It goes like this:

Thursday Night Football (Dec. 22) - New York @ Philadelphia (NBC)

Saturday (Dec 24):

Miami at Buffalo 12:00 PM CBS
New York at New England 12:00 PM CBS
Tennessee at Jacksonville 12:00 PM CBS
Minnesota at Green Bay 12:00 PM FOX
San Diego at Cleveland 12:00 PM CBS
Washington at Chicago 12:00 PM FOX
Atlanta at Carolina 12:00 PM FOX
Indianapolis at Oakland 3:05 PM CBS
Tampa Bay at New Orleans 3:25 PM FOX
Arizona at Seattle 3:25 PM FOX
San Francisco at Los Angeles 3:25 PM FOX
Cincinnati at Houston 7:25 PM NFL

Sunday (Dec 25):

Baltimore at Pittsburgh 3:30 PM NFL
Denver at Kansas City 7:30 PM NBC

Monday Night Football (Dec. 26) - Detroit @ Dallas (ESPN)

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Week 17 is "normal" for a Week 17 in that all 16 NFL games will be on Sunday with no TNF and no MNF.

Sunday (Jan. 1):

New Orleans at Atlanta 12:00 PM FOX
Baltimore at Cincinnati 12:00 PM CBS
New York at Washington 12:00 PM FOX
Houston at Tennessee 12:00 PM CBS
Carolina at Tampa Bay 12:00 PM FOX
Green Bay at Detroit 12:00 PM FOX
Jacksonville at Indianapolis 12:00 PM CBS
New England at Miami 12:00 PM CBS
Chicago at Minnesota 12:00 PM FOX
Buffalo at New York 12:00 PM CBS
Dallas at Philadelphia 12:00 PM FOX
Cleveland at Pittsburgh 12:00 PM CBS
Arizona at Los Angeles 3:25 PM FOX
Oakland at Denver 3:25 PM CBS
Kansas City at San Diego 3:25 PM CBS
Seattle at San Francisco 3:25 PM FOX

Now, one of the above games will be flexed to Sunday Night Football but as of this writing, it is undetermined. Texans vs. Titans has to be one of the leading candidates.....

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Most likely playoff scenarios for the AFC South (excluding ties):

1. If the Texans win out, they will win the AFC South.
2. If the Titans win out, they will win the AFC South.
3. If the Titans somehow lose to Jacksonville in Week 16, the Texans could clinch later that night with a win over Cincy.
4. If the Titans win in Week 16, it makes the Texans vs. Cincy game later that night meaningless* and it will set up a showdown game, Texans vs. Titans, in Week 17.

The Texans have been in 1st place in the AFCS all year so it would be very disappointing if they slipped up in the last game of the season..... Let's not let that happen, eh?

*Meaningless to the bottom line, not meaningless to the players and coaches working on "gettin' better"....

[Arky]

Jeff Moss ‎@JeffMossDSR
The Lions have been told there is a 95% chance the last game of the season will be the NBC SNF game.

So, since it has playoff implications, the Green Bay @ Detroit game will probably be the last game of the regular season on SNF. Texas vs. Titans will probably remain at the Week 17 scheduled time of noon.....

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Lots of people liking the Bengals in the upcoming Bengals @ Texans game. The line has dropped from Texans by 2½ to Pickem in some places. I can see it - Bengals have nothing to lose and come in loosey-goosey, Texans uptight....

I might add, even though the Titans have increased to a 5 pt favorite over the Jags, IMO, they are in a dangerous spot.... They are coming off an upset win over KC, feeling pretty good about themselves and have to go to Jacksonville (hey, it's just the Jags, right?). If the Jags play like they did in Houston, it should be a close game. We will get to see Titans vs. Jags in the Houston area on CBS before the Texans play later that night vs. the Bengals, also on CBS and the NFLN....

[Arky]

"Those tricky Jags!"

It's 38-17 Jags over the Titans with about 5 minutes left in the game. The Texans can clinch tonight if they beat the Bengals. Strongly suggest they do just that.....

[painekiller]

I have to admit, I lost faith. Time for some koolaid!

[Arky]

Originally Posted by painekiller

I have to admit, I lost faith. Time for some koolaid!

Well, there is something going on:

Exhibit A: Week 14 @ Indianapolis - Andrew Luck and the Colts are driving for a go ahead score. In the red zone. Clowney strips sacks Luck, the Texans recover and it changes the whole complexion of the game. Texans go on to win 22-17.

Exhibit B: Week 15 @ NRG - Oz gets benched after throwing 2 picks. Texans are losing 13-0. Savage comes in with 8:32 left in the 2nd qtr and leads the Texans to a come from behind 21-20 win. Had the change occurred at halftime or later, the Texans might not have won....

Exhibit C: Week 16 @ NRG - After nerfing the offense for two quarters, OB lets it loose a bit and the Texans score a few points. The Bengals put together a heroic end of game drive only to miss the game winning 43-yard FG as time expires. Game was way closer than it had to be.

Any of the above could've easily gone the other way. Flirting with disaster (Molly Hatchet?). Yet, they're still kicking. Not sure they can keep doing this.... One would think it'll bite them in the butt eventually....

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The only Kool-Aid I have left is with Tom Savage. It's still early in his "debut" and we don't know yet if he can be The One.....

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So, it looks like the Texans will probably play Oakland or KC at home in the first round of the playoffs. Sure would like to see them silence some of the critics (lookin' at you, Rodney Harrison) and win a round or two....

[HPF Bob]

If the Texans are an example of playoff-caliber division-winning NFL football, no wonder the league's ratings are tanking. It's hard to watch the Texans week after week win games they really ought to lose.

Then I think about this same defense with Watt and Johnson back and I think "this team could really go somewhere with a few tweaks and a new offensive line."

[chuck]

No one in the NFC is worth a shit. Hell, Green Bay may win the conference. In the AFC it's as usual the Patriots and everyone else. With average qb play the Texans would be battling the Patriots for home field. And, as you point out, that's with a defense far from full strength.

The Chiefs are starting to look pretty interesting.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by chuck

No one in the NFC is worth a shit. Hell, Green Bay may win the conference. In the AFC it's as usual the Patriots and everyone else. With average qb play the Texans would be battling the Patriots for home field. And, as you point out, that's with a defense far from full strength.

The Chiefs are starting to look pretty interesting.

Aside from getting beat by the Titans last week. The Chiefs are little different from us. Granted the little is they usually get average QB play, but when you are not good on offense you can lose to anyone. The Chiefs are now 5-0 against the AFC West and 6-4 against the rest of the league (including 2-2 against the AFC South).

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by barrett

Aside from getting beat by the Titans last week. The Chiefs are little different from us. Granted the little is they usually get average QB play, but when you are not good on offense you can lose to anyone. The Chiefs are now 5-0 against the AFC West and 6-4 against the rest of the league (including 2-2 against the AFC South).

The Chiefs were missing several key players when we beat them early in the year so this is a different team than what we faced in NRG very early in
the season. Even way back then there was reason to be optimistic about Oswieler.
I can't understand how they lose at home to a Titans team that the very next week gets beat by 3 TDs to the Jags ?
But that Chiefs team last night was very impressive vs the Broncos.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

The Chiefs were missing several key players when we beat them early in the year so this is a different team than what we faced in NRG very early in
the season. Even way back then there was reason to be optimistic about Oswieler.
I can't understand how they lose at home to a Titans team that the very next week gets beat by 3 TDs to the Jags ?
But that Chiefs team last night was very impressive vs the Broncos.

They remind me of the peak Matt Schaub Texans. They can't reliably score big points on offense, but if you allow them to control the game and play from ahead, they are very tough. They jumped out early on the Broncos so they didn't have to do anything other than rush the passer (what they're best at). Alex Smith was awful on anything not to Kelce, but he didn't need to be any more than that, because the Broncos are a mirror image who can't play from behind (a Kubiak team).

[chuck]

The Titans are obviously a totally different team without their quarterback. The Chiefs appear to be capable of beating anyone and at the same time capable of losing to most anyone. They are an interesting parallel because they have a ferocious defense, what you might generously call average quarterback play, and a head coach whose in-game decisions are at times unorthodox.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by chuck

The Titans are obviously a totally different team without their quarterback. The Chiefs appear to be capable of beating anyone and at the same time capable of losing to most anyone. They are an interesting parallel because they have a ferocious defense, what you might generously call average quarterback play, and a head coach whose in-game decisions are at times unorthodox.

The Titans were down 15 to the Jags in the 2nd half when Marriota got hurt. There simply isn't a consistent team in the AFC other than New England.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by barrett

The Titans were down 15 to the Jags in the 2nd half when Marriota got hurt. There simply isn't a consistent team in the AFC other than New England.

Yea I watched the whole game and the Jags totally outplayed the Titans and that was with Marriota in the game for 3 full quarters.
Whoever becomes the next HC is stepping into a good situation.
Latest rumor has original Jacksonsville HC and two-time Giants SB coach 70 year-old Tom Coughlin back to coach the Jags next year.

[popanot]

I'm hoping the Chiefs win and the Raiders lose this week. I'd much rather face a McGloin-lead Raiders than the Chiefs right now.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

Yea I watched the whole game and the Jags totally outplayed the Titans and that was with Marriota in the game for 3 full quarters.
Whoever becomes the next HC is stepping into a good situation.
Latest rumor has original Jacksonsville HC and two-time Giants SB coach 70 year-old Tom Coughlin back to coach the Jags next year.

I'm not sure I'd call the Jags job a good situation. Whoever takes the job will likely be responsible for fixing Blake Bortles.

[Arky]

I think you can probably expect the Texans to be underdogs the remainder of their post season play. Whether it's the Dolphins, Raiders or Chiefs who they face in the Wild Card round, the #4 seed Texans will probably be the underdog.

Of the Texans 6 losses, the three before the bye were decided by 27, 18 and 18 points (Pats, Vikes, Broncos respectively - all on the road).

The three game losing streak they had in Weeks 11-13 after the bye was decided by 7, 8, and 8 points (Raiders, Chargers, Packers respectively with the Charger game as their only home loss).

Of the Texans 9 wins, only the Bears game in Week 1 went over a victory margin of 7 pts. All others were won by 7 pts or less. Thus you have a first place team with the crazy point differential of -42.

Your 2016 Houston Texans = "If we beat ya, it ain't gonna be by much".

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Arky

I think you can probably expect the Texans to be underdogs the remainder of their post season play. Whether it's the Dolphins, Raiders or Chiefs who they face in the Wild Card round, the #4 seed Texans will probably be the underdog.

Of the Texans 6 losses, the three before the bye were decided by 27, 18 and 18 points (Pats, Vikes, Broncos respectively - all on the road).

The three game losing streak they had in Weeks 11-13 after the bye was decided by 7, 8, and 8 points (Raiders, Chargers, Packers respectively with the Charger game as their only home loss).

Of the Texans 9 wins, only the Bears game in Week 1 went over a victory margin of 7 pts. All others were won by 7 pts or less. Thus you have a first place team with the crazy point differential of -42.

Your 2016 Houston Texans = "If we beat ya, it ain't gonna be by much".

I doubt they'd be underdogs against Matt Moore and Miami. Betting lines are not actual predictions, but rather attempts to get even money bet on each side. Miami is even less exciting and nationally known than the Texans, so I can't see Miami and Matt Moore favored in a road playoff game. But Matt McGloin helms a well covered Raiders team, so I'd not be surprised by a Raiders by a point type of line.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by barrett

I doubt they'd be underdogs against Matt Moore and Miami.....Miami is even less exciting and nationally known than the Texans, so I can't see Miami and Matt Moore favored in a road playoff game. ....But Matt McGloin helms a well covered Raiders team, so I'd not be surprised by a Raiders by a point type of line

I think there's like a 10% chance we're going to play Miami so scratch them - I shouldn't have mentioned them. Higher probability the Texans will get KC or Oakland in which case, the spread will be very small in favor of the visitor to NRG.... that's the way I see it. Should the Texans survive the first (wildcard) round, they'll be dogs all the way till they're eliminated - @Pittsburgh, @NE, @Oakland or @KC....

Edit: provided Miami gets knocked out in their first round game.....

Betting lines are not actual predictions, but rather attempts to get even money bet on each side.

Dang, for 40-something years, I've been doing it all wrong.....

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Arky

Dang, for 40-something years, I've been doing it all wrong.....

I know you get that. I'm just pointing out that Miami is not a team that would get a bump from being popular. They are one of the few non-AFC south teams with less national excitement around them then Houston.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by barrett

I know you get that. I'm just pointing out that Miami is not a team that would get a bump from being popular. They are one of the few non-AFC south teams with less national excitement around them then Houston.

Oh yeah, that is true. It's easy to assume (at least, it is for me) that Miami has no chance and will probably be a first round KO. If they do anything (as in "winning"), it will be a shocking upset. The thing is, they're in a similar situation as the Texans in that they are on QB #2 and don't have much national respect (or your word, "popularity"). I'm sure there's many who don't give the Texans any chance, either.

Still, I'll take yammering about the playoffs this time of year over who to draft every time.... Once upon a time, a Houston team made it past the first and second round of the playoffs and as a fan, I can tell you the anticipation/excitement level doubles each step along the way.....