SportsBook Over/Under Wins For 2016

[HPF Bob]

Per CBS Sports.com:

AFC South:
Indianapolis 9.5
Houston 8.5
Jacksonville 7.5
Tennessee 5.5

IMO, this boils down to whether Andrew Luck can stay healthy and how Brock Osweiler performs out of the gate. Jags keep adding pieces but they haven't meshed yet. Ditto for Tennessee.

AFC East:
New England 10.5
New York Jets: 8.0
Buffalo: 8.0
Miami 7.0

Meaning, even if Brady sits for four weeks, they still win the division without a fight. Yeesh.

AFC North:
Pittsburgh 10.5
Cincinnati 9.5
Baltimore 8.5
Cleveland 4.5

This depends on who cheap-shots who. As usual, the Steelers won't get caught but they may be so beat up by playoff time that they'll limp their way out like last year.

AFC West:
Kansas City 9.5
Denver 9.0
Oakland 8.0
San Diego 7.0

If you think defense wins championships, the Broncos will test your fealty to that concept. The Chiefs and Raiders are pretty stout on D also. Should be a dogfight.

Incidentally, if this assessment is totally spot on then the Broncos-Texans match-up will be for the final wild card spot.

[Arky]

Texans should go over ..... I currently got them at 9-10 wins....

Last year they were broken at the start of the season starting off 2-5 with a couple of blowouts vs ATL and MIA. The good news was they fixed the problem(s). The bad news is they shouldn't have been there ....

So, if they are competitive out of the gate this year and Osweiler can be productive, make a few plays, stay healthy and not turn the ball over, they should be OK and go over...

[nunusguy]

AFC South:
Indianapolis 9.5
Houston 8.5
Jacksonville 7.5
Tennessee 5.5
That's about right, so looks like the Jags are right there with us and Indy battling for the AFC South title this year.
Jacksonville has now had two consecutive strong Drafts and their defense should be very good this year and depending on how Bortles does it could be a significantly better team which would mean a much tougher division, especially with Luck back and healthy.
And because we won the title last year we've got the most challenging schedule so 2016 is gonna be a difficult year.

[Nconroe]

Yeah, this time of year every team is good so hard to tell till they start playing. I was thinking Texans would stay on top of the much more competitive AFC South with about 10 wins. After all, we added some pretty good players as well, to the team with 9 wins last year. Anyways, being optimistic for now.

[chuck]

If I were standing in a casino right now I would bet the over on the Texans and the under on the Pats. And I would probably end up being wrong on both which is why I don't bet on sports.

[HPF Bob]

If I bet money, Secretariat pulls up lame. I've thought about going to Vegas just to jinx a team every now and again but have never followed through on it.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

AFC South:
Indianapolis 9.5
Houston 8.5
Jacksonville 7.5
Tennessee 5.5
That's about right, so looks like the Jags are right there with us and Indy battling for the AFC South title this year.
Jacksonville has now had two consecutive strong Drafts and their defense should be very good this year and depending on how Bortles does it could be a significantly better team which would mean a much tougher division, especially with Luck back and healthy.
And because we won the title last year we've got the most challenging schedule so 2016 is gonna be a difficult year.

I think 7.5 is a pretty good number for Jax, and I think they are improving, but they were #24 in yards allowed and #31 in points allowed last year. I know they essentially add 3 highly regarded rookies (the 2 this year plus Fowler), but two of those guys are coming off serious knee injuries and none of them have any NFL experience. I seriously doubt they put a 'very good' defense on the field this year.

I think Indy is better than a year ago just because of Luck likely playing 16 games, but they have to pay him at some point and when they do they lose the $20 Million cap advantage they wasted the last 4 years. I would definitely go over, but I'd be shocked if Indy got to 12 wins. I think they're a lock for 10-11.

I think Tennessee is pushing Jax for the worst run franchise in the NFL. It's amazing in a league with teams going last to first every year, the Titans have been bad for ever, and they still look years away. I think they end up under just because there are fewer easy wins in the division.

I think Houston has had artificially above average records with below average play the last 2 years. I think we were closer to the team in the KC game than the team who won 9 games. I think our division is improving (how could it be worse), and I think we stand a fair chance of being better than our record and winning between 7-9 games. If Brock is better than average than that could get blown out of the water and we could reach double digits. I'm not yet convinced but I'm hoping to be wrong.

[HPF Bob]

Concur completely.

[barrett]

And now the Jags Jalen Ramsay has a torn meniscus on the same knee he already had microfracture surgery on. Bad luck seems to follow the Jags. Meniscus is a much shorter recovery than ACL, but Meniscus is never the same and is degenerative. The kid now has a shelf life and it's only a matter of time until some other knee related issue.

[chuck]

Sucks to be the Jags. Plus, if you're a fan most likely you live in Jacksonville, which somehow is worse than Houston. Their stadium is better, though.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by chuck

Sucks to be the Jags. Plus, if you're a fan most likely you live in Jacksonville, which somehow is worse than Houston. Their stadium is better, though.

At least the parts that aren't covered in a giant garbage bag.

[chuck]

Originally Posted by barrett

At least the parts that aren't covered in a giant garbage bag.

That's true. And maybe part of its charm is the elbow room the fan enjoys.

[Arky]

Video - Teddy Covers opines on the Texans team total wins

Suggest jumping to 17:12 of the video to skip other discussions. Reasonable take, I'd say...

[barrett]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

AFC South:
Indianapolis 9.5
Houston 8.5
Jacksonville 7.5
Tennessee 5.5
That's about right, so looks like the Jags are right there with us and Indy battling for the AFC South title this year.
Jacksonville has now had two consecutive strong Drafts and their defense should be very good this year and depending on how Bortles does it could be a significantly better team which would mean a much tougher division, especially with Luck back and healthy.
And because we won the title last year we've got the most challenging schedule so 2016 is gonna be a difficult year.

I know it's ridiculous for me to pile on, but it's not like we have a ton of discussion about the current Texans season (we aren't good or bad enough to get excited/angry).

But again, I can't believe how many talked themselves into the Jags this off season. They keep getting draft day accolades, but none of the guys ever do anything in the NFL. It is reason 10,000 why judging NFL drafts before guys play is monumentally stupid. We have no idea who these guys are before they play, but it doesn't stop so many NFL fans from declaring wins and losses after draft weekend.

But either way, that defense they fielded tonight looked an awful lot like the embarrassment they fielded last year.

[chuck]

Originally Posted by barrett

we aren't good or bad enough to get angry

Wait, what?

[HPF Bob]

I can guarantee that whomever the Browns draft as their new rookie QB in 2017 is going to have a disastrous career despite predictions from many that he will finally be the guy who leads the Brownies to the promised land.

So, there's that.

And, FWIW, I never bought into the breathless hype this summer about the Jags. Hey I *still* don't believe a team like the Vikings can lose Teddy Bridgewater and Adrian Peterson then suddenly start playing like NFC Champions.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by chuck

Wait, what?

If we were worse we'd have way more discussion. When we lose people comment more. We are perfectly mediocre.

[Arky]

This Detroit game is a perfect example of a game that can either put the team total wins over for the year or under for the year. A few months ago, this game looked like a W. Not such a sure thing anymore. Detroit is "hot". Houston is not. Many are picking the Lions to win straight up. Will the Texans have the chutzpah to break out of their funk and get the W?

A win would put the Texans at 5-3 going into the bye with Jacksonville lurking as next in line, so a forecast of 6-3 is a possibility. A loss (4-4) and ewww, they'll have to put together a very good 2nd half of the season. OB's teams have been better in the 2nd half his first two years and that will have to happen again....

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Arky

This Detroit game is a perfect example of a game that can either put the team total wins over for the year or under for the year. A few months ago, this game looked like a W. Not such a sure thing anymore. Detroit is "hot". Houston is not. Many are picking the Lions to win straight up. Will the Texans have the chutzpah to break out of their funk and get the W?

A win would put the Texans at 5-3 going into the bye with Jacksonville lurking as next in line, so a forecast of 6-3 is a possibility. A loss (4-4) and ewww, they'll have to put together a very good 2nd half of the season. OB's teams have been better in the 2nd half his first two years and that will have to happen again....

Stafford has been very good with his passes travelling less distance downfield than anyone in the NFL. If we give cushion he picks us a part with quick throws and YAC from Golden Tate. If we dare him to beat us deep we win the game.