Time to Look Back at the Rick Smith Drafts

[Keith]

Rick Smith has been GM since the 2007 draft. Looking here just at the first four rounds since the draft is a bit of a crapshoot for backups mostly beyond that point.

1st Round picks
2014 - Jadeveon Clowney (1)
2013 - DeAndre Hopkins (27)
2012 - Whitney Mercilus (26)
2011 - J.J. Watt (11)
2010 - Kareem Jackson (20)
2009 - Brian Cushing (15)
2008 - Duane Brown (26)
2007 - Amobi Okoye (10)

2nd Round picks
2014 - Xavier Su'a-Filo (33)
2013 - D.J. Swearinger (57)
2012 - no pick
2011 - Brooks Reed (42), Brandon Harris (60)
2010 - Ben Tate (58)
2009 - Connor Barwin (46)
2008 - no pick
2007 - no pick

3rd Round picks
2014 - C.J. Fiedorowicz (65), Louis Nix (83)
2013 - Brennan Williams (89), Sam Montgomery (95)
2012 - DeVier Posey (68), Brandon Brooks (76)
2011 - no pick
2010 - Earl Mitchell (81)
2009 - Antoine Caldwell (77)
2008 - Antwaun Molden (79), Steve Slaton (89)
2007 - Jacoby Jones (73)

4th Round picks
2014 - Tom Savage (135)
2013 - Trevardo Williams (124)
2012 - Ben Jones (99), Keyshawn Martin (121), Jared Crick (126)
2011 - Roc Carmichael (127)
2010 - Darryl Sharpton (102), Garrett Graham (118),
2009 - Glover Quin (112), Anthony Hill (122)
2008 - Xavier Adibi (118)
2007 - Fred Bennett (123)

[Keith]

A couple off the cuff observations...

- The first round success rate is decent. I'm still mad about the Okoye pick, but the rest of these guys are still on the roster, at least in 2014 (I wonder what the future holds for Kareem and Mercilus). The Watt pick was genius, or rather it would be if we all believed that's who the Texans were really targeting that year.

- Shouldn't expect even a 50% success rate in the second round and beyond, but these hauls aren't close. Barwin, Mitchell, and Quin... maybe Swearinger if he continues to improve... I guess Jacoby. The rest is not much to write home about. Reed has been a starter more out of need than because he's been worth his slot. Posey might have had more success if he hadn't suffered injury.

- Eight drafts. No championship game appearances.

[chuck]

Just as damning as the continual poor drafting is the poor cap management that forces the team to lose key contributors most every year.

[Keith]

The drafts were kinda decent 2009-2011, which is probably what helped the team achieve the success it did during the 2011 and 2012 seasons, but really, the 2012-2014 drafts have been black holes of suck outside of Hopkins.

Time to find new thought leadership. Eight is enough.

[Nconroe]

Originally Posted by chuck

Just as damning as the continual poor drafting is the poor cap management that forces the team to lose key contributors most every year.

Agree, the cap management has cost us many above good players just as they were entering their prime of experience and skills just to go to another team.

Cap situation does seem to be getting better for next year, I think?

But there were also some good picks in 5th, 6th, 7th and UDFA.

Other than at QB, seems Texans have a reasonable roster to build on going forward?

[barrett]

Originally Posted by chuck

Just as damning as the continual poor drafting is the poor cap management that forces the team to lose key contributors most every year.

The total absence of outside pass rush has plagued us for 2 years. It led to he drafting of Clowney which may turn out to be a colossal bust.

And yet when you look at the NFL sack leader boards you find Connor Barwin and Mario Williams in the top 6. So we chose to keep Matt Schaub, Joseph, Cushing, AJ, etc... We pay all of them large amounts of money (or are on the hook for their dead money), while getting little to no production from them, while two guys we drafted are starring for other teams at a position of desperate need for us.

I would agree that extensions/FA have been an even bigger screw up for Smith than the draft.

[Nconroe]

Originally Posted by barrett

The total absence of outside pass rush has plagued us for 2 years. It led to he drafting of Clowney which may turn out to be a colossal bust.

And yet when you look at the NFL sack leader boards you find Connor Barwin and Mario Williams in the top 6. So we chose to keep Matt Schaub, Joseph, Cushing, AJ, etc... We pay all of them large amounts of money (or are on the hook for their dead money), while getting little to no production from them, while two guys we drafted are starring for other teams at a position of desperate need for us.

I would agree that extensions/FA have been an even bigger screw up for Smith than the draft.

It would be nice to have Williams and Barwin back wouldn't it, in hindsight.

Hard to find good pass rushers. they seem to be best weapon against the can't touch a WR rules.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Nconroe

It would be nice to have Williams and Barwin back wouldn't it, in hindsight.

Hard to find good pass rushers. they seem to be best weapon against the can't touch a WR rules.

I was really loud on this site about keeping Mario. He always got a bum rap from fans because he is only a great pass rusher when he should be an all-time great with his physical gifts. He already has 88.5 sacks in his career and has now put up 3 straight double digit sack seasons. Barring an injury this will be his 7th year starting all 16 games out of 9.

I am %100 sure that we would all take that career out of Clowney at this point.

Barwin was another guy we let walk. Instead of those two and maybe not being able to afford Schaub and Joseph, we spent two 1sts and one 2nd on Reed, Mercilous, and Clowney.

Imagine a front 7 with JJ, Mario, and Barwin. We'd knock down half of all passes at the LOS while picking up a sack on about every 4th drop back. Fitzy might win a super bowl with that team. We just did a pathetic job evaluating our own talent.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by barrett

I was really loud on this site about keeping Mario. He always got a bum rap from fans because he is only a great pass rusher when he should be an all-time great with his physical gifts. He already has 88.5 sacks in his career and has now put up 3 straight double digit sack seasons. Barring an injury this will be his 7th year starting all 16 games out of 9.

I am %100 sure that we would all take that career out of Clowney at this point.

So you would blame the Texas for drafting someone who's career might be ruined because of injuries ? What was your thoughts about Clowney at the time of the Draft and the Texans decision to draft him back in May ?
As far as Mario goes, I'm pretty sure we just couldn't afford him.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

So you would blame the Texas for drafting someone who's career might be ruined because of injuries ? What was your thoughts about Clowney at the time of the Draft and the Texans decision to draft him back in May ?
As far as Mario goes, I'm pretty sure we just couldn't afford him.

I was desperate to trade down and would have taken less than the trade chart. I said that before the draft. Then in the preseason I fell in love with Clowney off of that one great series against Atlanta. So what do I know. Either way we are talking about a guy whose success is built on explosiveness who has work ethic issues, and now he faces maybe the toughest injury to recover from and the likely loss of some of that explosion. I am in the end of an ACL rehab with Methodist at their main facility. Half of the guys in there are pro athletes and half are out of shape weekend warriors like me. The head PT guy said it is likely 2 years before he is %100 (if ever).

As for Mario, he could have been kept. Cap space is finite and we chose to keep other high priced players rather than Mario. Mario's cap number in 2012 (first year of his contract) was $9 million. In 2013 it was $12.4 million. This year it jumped to $19 where it stays until 2017. Andre's is $15 million. Joseph is almost $12 million. Matt Schaub counts nearly $11 to NOT PLAY FOR US this year. Fitzpatrick is almost $4 million more. Ed Reed counts $3 million more. Danieal Manning actually has dead money this year from the last time he played with us.

For perspective, we pay Matt Schaub, Ed Reed, Owen Daniels, and Danieal Manning more in dead money than Mario makes this year.

Who and how we extend has always been the biggest problem for Rick Smith.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by barrett

I was desperate to trade down and would have taken less than the trade chart. I said that before the draft. Then in the preseason I fell in love with Clowney off of that one great series against Atlanta. So what do I know.

You know atleast as much as any GM in the NFL when it comes to predicting the future, so as far as I'm concerned Rick Smith (and you) are off the hook for not knowing Clowney was going to have these injuries, just like the Texans' organization should not be blamed for drafting Benny Joppru back in 2003 because he ended being IRed multiple seasons for knee issues and did nothing while in Houston (or the NFL for that matter).
It just annoys me that so many people affix this "bust" label on players who fall short of expectations because of injury. Aaron Curry & Vernon Gholston are busts, but Luke Joeckel and Jadeveon Clowney are not busts, net yet anyway.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

You know atleast as much as any GM in the NFL when it comes to predicting the future, so as far as I'm concerned Rick Smith (and you) are off the hook for not knowing Clowney was going to have these injuries, just like the Texans' organization should not be blamed for drafting Benny Joppru back in 2003 because he ended being IRed multiple seasons for knee issues and did nothing while in Houston (or the NFL for that matter).
It just annoys me that so many people affix this "bust" label on players who fall short of expectations because of injury. Aaron Curry & Vernon Gholston are busts, but Luke Joeckel and Jadeveon Clowney are not busts, net yet anyway.

As long as Clowney had a clean bill of health with every team before the draft then the Texans are off the hook for taking him (but on the hook for having a poor quality field surface that injured him).

[Keith]

Originally Posted by barrett

(but on the hook for having a poor quality field surface that injured him).

I understand the trays and the seams and the potential issues that come with it... but if the field was truly an issue like this, far more than just Clowney would be hurt here more often.

At least until I see better evidence otherwise, I am not blaming Clowney's (or Welker's or that punter's or whomever's...) injury on the NRG Stadium turf. Injuries happen on all kinds of surfaces. To my (albeit untrained, non-medical) eye, Clowney looks like he has a freakish amount of weight and muscle which is certain to be a burden on his joints doing the type of freakishly athletic things he asks of them to do.

[popanot]

Sorry to resurrect an old thread, but a guy a follow on Twitter posted a link about how the 2013 draft hasn't turned out that great so far. After looking at the list, save for maybe 2 or 3 of the OLs, Rick Smith's RD1 pick (if you believe he decides on the pick) might be the best one of the draft for that round. RDs 1 and 2 were good, then it's the common fall-off-the-face-of-the-earth middle round choices we've all grown to know and loath. I still want him gone.

http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/years/2013