A Simple Question About Impact

[idymoe]

I'm going to ask you to answer without regard to value of position, i.e. CB is more valuable than SS, and value of the pick. It's always nice to trade down and get an extra pick, plus the guy you want. But, assume we cannot trade down. I like the idea of the Matthews pick at 15. The question I would like you to discuss is, assuming Adibi and Diles come back healthy, would Matthews have more impact on the Texans than Unger or Mack? Some may even like Wood the best of the three. Would the upgrade to center have greater impact than the upgrade to outside linebacker? I know that while some mocks have Unger and/or Mack in the first round, I don't think any have them as high as 15. Would one of those guys be a difference-maker in the redzone? I've never heard a center described as a play-maker, but if our third and short percentage was significantly increased, that would be very important, imo. I wouldn't ask this question if I thought they would be available at our 2nd round pick. I would be very surprised if either guy fell that low. Do you think they are good enough to have this kind of impact?

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by idymoe

I'm going to ask you to answer without regard to value of position. But, assume we cannot trade down.

Would the upgrade to center have greater impact than the upgrade to outside linebacker?

I've never heard a center described as a play-maker, but if our third and short percentage was significantly increased, that would be very important, imo.

Nick Mangold was probably the best OC prospect I've seen, and to that end, I'm not sure how much impact he made by himself. The Jets also drafted Brick Ferguson in that same 1st round.

While improving our 3rd and short percentage would be very important, I'm not sure how much credit would go towards Unger/Mack/Wood. Also, there is a good possibility to get Wood at #45 or even Anoine Caldwell at #77.

If we can't trade down from #15, we should not draft any OC and expect them to make an impact more than we could expect from one drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round.

If Kubiak is hell bent on getting a "difference maker" on the defensive side of the football that won't be easily matched later on in the draft, I'd suspect he's looking at Vontae Davis or Malcolm Jenkins.

[idymoe]

Wood might be iffy at 45 and I wasn't very impressed with Caldwell at the Senior Bowl. How would you compare Unger and Mack to Mangold?

[jppaul]

Its harder to judge the impact a center has on an offense as compared to OLB. Oline as a group make an impact but it is hard to point to any of the interior line as having an impact. I know that they do its just harder to ascertain.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by idymoe

Wood might be iffy at 45 and I wasn't very impressed with Caldwell at the Senior Bowl. How would you compare Unger and Mack to Mangold?

Mack didn't participate at the Combine. However, if you sum the 20, 10, Shuttle, and Cone; you'll get an idea about an OL's agility and their feet. Mangold's total was 16.55
Wood totaled 16.59
Unger totaled 16.63

If you are looking at power and explosion, add the Bench Reps, Vertical, and Jump.

Mangold = 60.17
Wood = 68.75
Unger = 54.17

I like to take those two composites to get an index of power and agility, and I disregard the 20. Mangold's 20 was 2.95, Wood ran 2.84, Unger clocked 2.96.

Mangold = 4.42
Wood = 5.0
Unger = 3.96

So, that's the measurables.

Mangold had much better pass-protection skills than any of these guys because he got into his stance so quickly after snapping the ball. Mangold also gets off his block quickly to get to the next level. In terms of run blocking, Mangold uses good leverage.

Unger is probably a better Left Guard than Center. Having been moved around in college probably made him more versatile, but it didn't allow him to work on the specifics of OC.

Mack is probably the best pure OC in the draft. In pass protection he is going to have trouble with big NTs. Unlike Mangold, he doesn't get into a strong blocking position after snapping the ball.

Wood has all the athletic tools I'm looking for in a ZBS OC. While he has athleticism, he also has a solid punch to road grade on the run. He could use some work on pass-protection, but I'm pretty sure Gibbs can whip him into shape. With Mack and Unger getting all the hype, I'm hopeful Wood will slide on down to #45. He can also play RG while learning the offense.

If I were ranking them in the draft, I'd rank Mangold #22, Wood #27, Unger #33, and Mack #39.

[idymoe]

Nice analysis. Thanks.

[idymoe]

Roy, how do you think Myers stacks up against Wood, Unger & Mack. I doubt there are measureables for him, but from watching him play, what do you think?

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by idymoe

Roy, how do you think Myers stacks up against Wood, Unger & Mack. I doubt there are measureables for him, but from watching him play, what do you think?

Myers is surviving on his technique and knowledge of Gibbs' system. All three of the guys I mentioned are better prospects and would push Myers into a back-up role their Sophomore year after learning the responsibilities of the OC position. Myers is the savvy veteran getting by with his wisdom and the fact that there isn't any talent behind him.

[idymoe]

That's pretty much my opinion, too, although I see you think it would take a season to win the start. I know Kubiak has said the #1 pick is expected to start right away. I do think a lot of our problems in third and short lie at center.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by idymoe

That's pretty much my opinion, too, although I see you think it would take a season to win the start. I know Kubiak has said the #1 pick is expected to start right away. I do think a lot of our problems in third and short lie at center.

Some lies at RG. That's what I like about Wood. He could play RG as a rookie and then move over, much like Ryan Kalil.

Just in case you were wondering.....

Kalil = 68.67 explosion, 5.07 Index, 20/10/S/C = 16.42

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by idymoe

I've never heard a center described as a play-maker

And I've not heard of an OLT described as a "play-maker" either, but there's probably no position on a team that has more impact in terms of contributing
to its success (or failure) than that of an OLT, after QB of course. Just look at where they are drafted to measure their value (or "impact").
Its unusual for centers to be taken in the first found, but even more unusual to have a first round without an OT taken. As a matter of fact, I dunno if its ever happened ?
Somebody like a Maybin or a MacClin truly has the "potential" (but not the promise) to have an impact on the Texans this year.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

And I've not heard of an OLT described as a "play-maker" either, but there's probably no position on a team that has more impact in terms of contributing
to its success (or failure) than that of an OLT, after QB of course.

Somebody like a Maybin or a MacClin truly has the "potential" (but not the promise) to have an impact on the Texans this year.

So would you entertain the idea of drafting Michael Oher?

What is the difference betweeen "potential" and promise? I would like you to clarify your definition here.

[Roy P]

Looking back at the 2006 draft the Miami Dolphins had a need in the Secondary and already had a very good RB in Ronnie Brown. So, at #16 they selected Jason Allen who could play CB or at worst play FS. They did not draft DeAngelo Williams (drafted #27), who I might say would have had a bigger impact on the team. That is why a NEED can't be the main reason to select a player.

In 2004, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers drafted WR Michael Clayton #15 overall allowing the Patriots to draft DT Vince Wilfork #21. Now, the Bucs had a pretty good defense and needed to add some offensive weapons. However, that just looks like a bad decision based upon strengths and weaknesses of the team's roster. We are talking about the same thing here, just on opposite sides of the ball.

Now I realize our offense moved the ball pretty well and our WR's and Slaton are pretty good. So, taking an offensive player isn't a priority. Therefore, if Maclin or a good RB is on the board, we should strive to trade down. That way, if we draft Matthews with the 19th pick, we should get some compensation (like a 3rd round pick and less guaranteed money) that reduces the risk. Remember when we traded down and could not draft Derrick Johnson?

I don't know if they wanted him, but I think they did not. By trading down, they were able to acquire Eric Winston. Now, I'm not sure if Travis Johnson + Eric Winston => Derrick Johnson, but at least they didn't "reach" for TJ without a safety net simply because they wanted a DT more than a LB.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by idymoe

Nice analysis. Thanks.

For some in depth analysis on Wood, check this out. It's about everything you'd want to know. Included is that he has 33 3/4" arm length. Somebody mentioned that he had "short" arms. That's the same length as OT prospect Jason Smith.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/522812

Wood ranking second among the nation's centers with 16 touchdown-resulting blocks.

He not only brings incredible knowledge and instincts to the field, but plays with the true nastiness that has scouts comparing him to the NFL's old time centers like Mike Webster of the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tim Grunhard of the Kansas City Chiefs.


Anyone who might question his intensity needs only see him fighting tooth and nail to the final gun in a 69-14 loss to Rutgers in 2008. He always brings his "A" game to the field, no matter what the scoreboard says.

Wood is known for residing in the film room. He is very determined to break down every aspect of his opponent and search for what he can use to his advantage. He does all the little extras you would expect from a team leader and captain.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by Roy P

So would you entertain the idea of drafting Michael Oher?

What is the difference betweeen "potential" and promise? I would like you to clarify your definition here.

You're right, "promise" was not a good word to use in this context. "Guarantee" would have been a better choice for me to make my point. So then to restate, IMO either of the players I mentioned would have the potential to make a real impact for the Texans but there is no guarantee that picking one of them would achieve that desired result. Especially with a Maybin (or a Micahel Johnson or even an Brian Orakpo), who is probably one of the players in this Draft who has the biggest boom-bust/potential-risk/upside-downside range of any player out there. But the maximum potential for the Texans could be breathtaking - what if we were to get an edge-rusher with the "impact" of a Dwight Freeney ? And how much even more would that make Mario ? Hey man, I can dream can't I ? And I think a AJ-MacClin combo might have the same kind of "potential" impact that a Mario-Maybin would have, but perhaps with less uncertainty ?
Re Oher, if he were somehow still on the Board at 15 I think Rick Smith would have to think about a whole bunch of things very quickly, so hopefully he's taking care of that possible scenario in his Draft preparations now.
With OT Brown being out first-rounder last year and a brand new contract recently being consummated with our other starting OT, Eric Winston, it
may not seem like a very good time to put a lot of bucks in a third OLineman ? But aren't we going to have to be doing just that 'bout this time
next year if we want to retain Chesters services who will then be 30 years old while Miachael Oher will only be 23 ?