Post Combine Mock 1st round

[Roy P]

Okay, here's a rough estimate. I have trades starting with Buffalo at #11 with Detroit. Then Denver traded with Tampa Bay. Houston also made a trade with Atlanta in this mock.

1 Det LT Eugene Monroe
2 StL LT Jason Smith
3 KC QB Matt Stafford
4 Sea WR Jeremy Maclin
5 Cle OLB Everette Brown
6 Cinci LT Michael Oher
7 Oak DT BJ Raji
8 Jax WR Michael Crabtree
9 GB LB Aaron Curry
10 SF LT Andre Smith
11 Det QB Mark Sanchez
12 TB DE Brian Orakpo
13 Wash DT Peria Jerry
14 NO CB Vontae Davis
15 Atl DE Aaron Maybin
16 SD LB Rey Maualuga
17 NYJ CB Malcolm Jenkins
18 Chi LT Ebon Britton
19 Den RB Knowshon Moreno
20 Buf TE Bradon Pettigrew
21 Phi RB LeSean McCoy
22 Minn WR Darrius Heyward-Bey
23 NE LB Clay Matthews
24 Hou DE Robert Ayers
25 Mia WR Hakeem Nicks
26 Bal LB Brian Cushing
27 Phi OT William Beatty
28 Ind DT Ziggy Hood
29 NYG WR Brian Robiskie
30 Tenn WR Percy Harvin
31 Az RB Beannie Wells
32 Pitt OC Max Unger

[jppaul]

What did we get for that a second? Still in that scenario give me Brian Cushing.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by jppaul

What did we get for that a second? Still in that scenario give me Brian Cushing.

#55 for a total of 1090. So we "owe" 40 points. We'd have to give up our 5th round pick (#144 is worth 34 points). #55 could net us TE Jared Cook or RB Rashad Jennings potentially.

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by Roy P

#55 for a total of 1090. So we "owe" 40 points. We'd have to give up our 5th round pick (#144 is worth 34 points). #55 could net us TE Jared Cook or RB Rashad Jennings potentially.

If they took Jennings here, that would be an OK trade.

Hey Roy something that caught me, our favorite scout, Drew Boylhart has said some pretty eye opening things about Jennings, who I admit I have only seen on a few plays during the Senior Bowl.

Rashad Jennings RB Liberty

STRENGTHS

Rashad has excellent size and strength to play his position. On film, he shows good feet and the ability to change directions in the hole; however, he is mostly a north-south runner. Rashad has the physical and mental stamina to get stronger as the game goes on. He looks to me like he is a fourth quarter type of RB. By that I mean his ability to gain yards in a game will more than likely be in the fourth quarter when his opponents are wearing down. Rashad has the ability to be an impact RB for the team that drafts him.



NEEDS TO IMPROVE

Rashad has the ability to be an impact RB, but he has a long way to go. He runs high, which means he might not be good around the goal line in spite of his size. He really needs better coaching and will have to work hard on all of his RB skills. He is not ready for the NFL skill-wise, but with hard work and good coaching, he could become the same style of RB as Brandon Jacob (RB Giants) in time.



TALENT BOARD ROUND 3

I would suspect that Rashad will be drafted a little earlier than I have rated his talent. But remember this, Brandon Jacobs and Marion Barber were not drafted until the 4th round in the 2005 draft! They both were much further along in their RB skills than Rashad is right now. In that draft, I had a 2nd TBR grade on the both of them. Rashad will take some time to develop and although he looks to be a good kid and teammate, learning the RB position in the pros is a very tricky thing to do. There are the little things that need to be addressed plus the difference in the talent of his opponents. He will have to step up his game both mentally and physically. Taking this kid too early and throwing him out on to the field might be disaster. I know it looks like this kid is going to be a red zone RB, but right now he does not explode into the hole and is too upright to gain the advantage. In the open field, he has to learn how to turn the corner on a sweep because he has good speed -- not blazing speed. His techniques are very raw at this point. I'm not sure how good his hands are and as far as picking up a blitz and reading defense in the passing game, you have to know that he is far behind the average RB coming out in the draft. Not to mention the average RB in a big program in most cases has to learn those skills also. So yes, he has talent and yes, you might have to pick him earlier than you should, but remember this. Rashad will take some time to become the RB his talent suggests he can be with some work. Add to that a year where he just might be injured and you can see what I mean. He is a project. A project that I would suspect most teams will be tempted to draft too early.

Am I falling for the size/speed of the kid and over looking another back?

All Ian Johnson has done throughout his career is score TDs. From 2005 he has scored 4, 25, 16, and 13 times rushing the ball. With him surprising me with a great forty time, and his nose for the goal line, is this the kid we should be targeting as our young back up? He is a team player, he has charisma, his wife is not hard on the eyes, and he knits cool beanies.

I am having to rethink my RBs since the combine, a couple guys under performed, and Ian jumped off the page.

[Roy P]

Round two with those traded picks included.

33 Buf LB James Laurinitis
34 KC DE Michael Johnson
35 StL DE Lawrence Sidbury
36 Cle RB Donald Brown
37 Sea S William Moore
38 Cinci DE Paul Kruger
39 Jax OG Eric Wood
40 Oak DE Tyson Jackson
41 GB OT Jamon Meredith
42 Buf OC Alex Mack
43 SF QB Josh Freeman
44 Mia OLB Conner Barwin
45 NYG S Patrick Chung
46 Hou S Louis Delmas
47 NE CB Alphonso Smith
48 Den LB Clint Sintim
49 Chi S Chip Vaughn
50 Den CB Darius Butler
51 Dal CB DJ Moore
52 NYJ DE Fili Moala
53 Phi OT Phil Loadholt
54 Minn DT Sen'Derrick Marks
55 Hou LB Gerald McGrath
56 Mia DE Kyle Moore
57 Bal CB Sean Smith
58 NE CB Macho Harris
59 Car S Michael Hamlin
60 NYG LB Darry Beckwith
61 Ind WR Kenny Britt
62 Tenn DE Jarron Gilbert
63 Az OLB Larry English
64 Pitt OG Duke Robinson

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by painekiller

Am I falling for the size/speed of the kid and over looking another back?

I am having to rethink my RBs since the combine, a couple guys under performed, and Ian jumped off the page.

Take a look at the latest "My Guys" and see.

[papabear]

Originally Posted by painekiller

If they took Jennings here, that would be an OK trade.


Am I falling for the size/speed of the kid and over looking another back?

I'm starting to develop a man crush on Jennings. I have no reason for it. I never saw him in college. I liked what I heard about him at the senior bowl, but I saw very little of it. I'm intrigued by the fact that he was at a big school (Pitt counts as big time program, kinda) but transferred to take care of a sick family member not just because it shows some character, but because at one times people thought he was a worthy D1 player...not just an above average player who feasted on weak competition. There's a good combination of size and speed, and sounds like a guy who kid thrive in a one cut system if he has the vision. I would be terrified of his pass blocking, but that's most rookie RB's. As a compliment to Slaton the risk could be minimized. As of now he's the guy the one guy that I have developed a weird fascination with. Sidbury's number two, with Connor Barwin rising on my completely uninformed, guys I've never heard of before, want list.

[Roy P]

Jennings sort of reminded me of Brandon Jacobs. Remember, Jacobs went to Auburn before going to S. Ill because of Brown and Williams at Auburn. Then I went to the tale of the tape.

Jacobs 6'4" 267lbs.....4.56-40....4.49 - Shuttle.....7.54 - Cone...9'10" - Jump
Jennings 6'1" 231lbs...4.62-40....4.20 - Shuttle.... 6.86 - Cone...10'0" - Jump

Basically, Jacobs is larger and faster to break long runs. Jennings is more agile and is more likely to make people miss in the hole, where Jacobs simply runs them over.

I'm not sold on Jennings being a great short yardage back. However, he could be a good strong runner to wear down a defense for Slaton. I hate using a 2nd round pick on a guy who isn't a threat to score whenever he touches the ball. That 4.62 is a bit of a concern, especially when Andre Brown is in this draft and runs a 4.49 at roughly the same size. Remember that Brandon Jacobs was a 4th round pick, but his draft was probably more talented.

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by Roy P

Jennings sort of reminded me of Brandon Jacobs.
....
I'm not sold on Jennings being a great short yardage back. However, he could be a good strong runner to wear down a defense for Slaton. I hate using a 2nd round pick on a guy who isn't a threat to score whenever he touches the ball. That 4.62 is a bit of a concern, especially when Andre Brown is in this draft and runs a 4.49 at roughly the same size. Remember that Brandon Jacobs was a 4th round pick, but his draft was probably more talented.

Well you are correct about the talent level in this draft. I read the number similar to the way you do.

So let's compare Johnson To Jennings:
Jennings 6'1" 231lbs...4.62-40....4.20 - Shuttle.... 6.86 - Cone...10'0" - Jump
Johnson 5''11" 212lbs...4.46-40....4.18 - Shuttle.... 6.93 - Cone...

Jennings 5.7 yds/carry..42 rush TDs career...17 rushTDs '08...264 carriers '08
Johnson 5.6 yds/carry..58 rush TDs career.. 13 rush TDs '08... 150 carries '08

These guys are close, which is why you have them one on top of the other. Like you I like the long speed, but in the NFL size is huge, and Johnson's weight gain is recent, he only weighed in at 196 lbs at the Shrine game. Will he be able to maintain the size from here on out, it did not hurt his speed.

I could probably get on board for either guy now.

[papabear]

Originally Posted by Roy P

I'm not sold on Jennings being a great short yardage back.

I have no idea. Size doesn't necessarily make a great short yardage back...especially if he runs high like I've read.

That 4.62 is a bit of a concern, especially when Andre Brown is in this draft and runs a 4.49 at roughly the same size.

I'm not too worried about the 40 (we don't have to go there again) mainly because we already have Slaton as the homerun threat. His cone and shuttle are good, so if he has the ability to make one cut with a good initial burst through the hole he should be fine. A couple of potential 30-40 yard runs might only be 15-20. I'll live with it if he can help wear defenses down for Slaton...who I'm still amazed at how tough an inside runner he is and how he seems to get stronger in the 4th.

Remember that Brandon Jacobs was a 4th round pick, but his draft was probably more talented.

That's what got me interested. He seemed like a guy who could be had late, but be a good compliment to Slaton and contribute early on. He might have climbed up the ladder too much to make him a good option now.

[danger6]

I always enjoy your work, Roy. Here is a question on your mock and relationship to My Guy List:

The first Houston selection (after trade down) is DE Robert Ayers. My Guys List has him listed behind DE Lawrence Sidbury. Also, I didn't see Louis Delmas (selected at #46) on the My Guys List.

Does the mock reflect your more current ratings than the My Guy List, or do I not understand how you use the My Guys in the selection process?

[NBT]

Hummmph! A lot of you stat sharks were still poo-pooing Matt Forte at this time last year. Hell we weren't even mentioning Steve Slaton! I still like Jennings. Eric Dickerson was a straight up runner too. That aspect, I believe, is overhyped. And there is sure to be more mis-direction, and pure dee old smoke than you could fill a Congressional election with.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by danger6

I always enjoy your work, Roy. Here is a question on your mock and relationship to My Guy List:

The first Houston selection (after trade down) is DE Robert Ayers. My Guys List has him listed behind DE Lawrence Sidbury. Also, I didn't see Louis Delmas (selected at #46) on the My Guys List.

Does the mock reflect your more current ratings than the My Guy List, or do I not understand how you use the My Guys in the selection process?

This little mock excercise was based upon what I think the GMs (including Rick Smith) might do. It was not based upon what I would do (following My Guys draft board). If Rick Smith had asked me who to take, I'd have gone by my draft board and selected Donald Brown. I also wouldn't have traded down below New England, because I'm convinced that they want Clay Matthews.