Blessing in disguise?

mussop · #1 01-16-2009, 11:35 AM

Ive been thinking and Bradford deciding to stay in school could work out in our benifit. IMO and hopefully Detroits, Stafford isnt really worthy of the #1 pick. Im thinking they likely go with the safer pick Andre Smith Alabama with the first pick. Stafford will be gone by the time they pick again at #20. The next best QB is Mark Sanchez. After him there is a big drop off in talent which shoud make his stock go up a little.

If he (MS) is still there (likely) at 15 Detroit may consider a trade up to secure getting him considering there are 2 teams (Jets and Bears) ahead of them that could be looking for a QB themselves.

Another possibility is Minnisota wanting to jump in front of all 3 of those teams and getting Sanchez themselves. Either way because of all the potential first rounders deciding not to declare, trading down is looking like best way to go. Because the talent level is so even from the middle of the first till late second this may be our only hope of a trade down.

According to the DVC our pick #15 is worth 1050 points. Therefor a tradedown with Detroit should net us #20 1st round (850) & #83 3rd round (175)

This would make our draft look like this.

20 1st
47 2nd
78 3rd
83 3rd (maybe Luigs or Caldwell)
with the rest being the same.

A tradedown with Minny should net us #22 (780) & #54 (360) for a total of 1140 points. We may have to throw in our 4th to even out the points but IMO it would be well worth it.

That would make our draft look like this.
22 1st
47 2nd
54 2nd maybe (Juaquin Iglesias, Clay Mathews or Darius Butler)
78 3rd
Basically we would be getting an extra 2nd for our 4th rounder & moving down 7 spots.

Anyway, unless someone like Raji miraculously falls to us, this is what Im hoping for. Seems like there might be a chance.

Joshua · #2 01-16-2009, 01:36 PM

I like the thinking. If one of the top 2 QBs were to drop to 15, I agree that someone might be willing to move up to get them. In the last few years, it seems like QBs are one of the only positions teams are willing to move up to get (Cutler, last year with us and Flacco, etc.). Here's hoping this is a scenario that plays out again.

HPF Bob · #3 01-16-2009, 08:04 PM

The question is "why would the Lions, who need help in a lot of places, want to surrender a draft pick?" Matt Millen is no longer there so I have to assume the Lions' GM is halfway intelligent and knows he needs to stockpile draft picks, not trade them away.

I also am not sure the Jets (Kellen Clemmens) or the Bears (Grossman and Orton) are really in the market for drafting another QB in the first round. Their fans probably would rank QB as their #1 need but I'm not sure their GMs would agree.

Mike · #4 01-16-2009, 08:24 PM

Well they could do that because they are the Lions.

Actually I don't see why they would surrender any picks either. Martin Mayhew is the defacto GM and he was the one who screwed the Cowboys for taking the overrated WR Roy Williams, to go along with the slow overrated safety Roy Williams.

Nice move plastic face.

mussop · #5 01-17-2009, 02:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

The question is "why would the Lions, who need help in a lot of places, want to surrender a draft pick?" Matt Millen is no longer there so I have to assume the Lions' GM is halfway intelligent and knows he needs to stockpile draft picks, not trade them away.

I also am not sure the Jets (Kellen Clemmens) or the Bears (Grossman and Orton) are really in the market for drafting another QB in the first round. Their fans probably would rank QB as their #1 need but I'm not sure their GMs would agree.

Because QB and LT are the 2 most important positions on offense and they have neither. They would only be giving up one draft choice (3rd round) to get the second best QB in the draft.

As for the Jets and the Bears, Both would be in the playoffs right now if it werent for poor QB play. Neither have a shot at Stafford and after Sanchez there is a huge drop of in talent IMO. Also what do you mean by "am not sure the Jets (Kellen Clemmens) or the Bears (Grossman and Orton) are really in the market for drafting another QB in the first round.? Only Grossman was a 1st round pick out of hte QB's you named and that was way back in 2003.

kRocket · #6 01-17-2009, 02:39 AM

Actually, I believe Grossman is a FA this coming year. There is a chance he won't be around for the Bears. They may be very much in a QB drafting mood.

jppaul · #7 01-19-2009, 12:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kRocket

Actually, I believe Grossman is a FA this coming year. There is a chance he won't be around for the Bears. They may be very much in a QB drafting mood.

Chicago, I think is a team in the window, one that is closing rapidly. They are in the market for a veteran QB, McNabb maybe, one that can win immediately. For Lovie Smith to draft a QB would be career suicide, because he is on the hot seat now. He will look to win immediately. Look for them to draft an experienced skilled QB, not another rookie with years to develop.

Roy P · #8 01-30-2009, 10:51 PM

Taking a closer look at this, I would contend that the Buccanners might be in the mix with the Vikings and Lions. Gruden is gone, Garcia is old, Griese is just a guy, and the coach has some time to allow a rookie to grow. With 5 possible teams looking to add Sanchez or Stafford all pretty much right after us, then there could be some jitters and offers coming our way. The Ravens and Falcons did well with Rookie coaches and Rookie QBs.

Our # 15 is worth 1050 and the Bucs #19 is only 875 points. That leaves a 3rd round pick #83 = 175 points (The Bucs have pick #81 = 185 points). At #19 the Texans could pull another Duane Brown type pick and take a guy nobody thought was a 1st round guy like DE Paul Kruger or Robert Ayers. Also, some of the same guys we talk about at #15 could still be available at #19 like DT Jerry, LB Laurinaitus, LB Cushing, CB Moore, CB Davis, RB McCoy, or RB Brown. Then when #81 rolls around we could get a guy like Slaton in OC Wood, LB/DE Brown, DT Magee, QB Freeman, or FS Johnson.

popanot · #9 01-31-2009, 06:38 AM

I like the thought. The only problem is, from pick #10 on down to our pick at #15, this same trade scenario could occur. I don't see any of those teams having such a huge need or there being such a can't-miss/must-have prospect available that they wouldn't consider a trade down. I think Bradford being out actually hurts this scenario for us. I'd prefer it be a deep draft at the top, and thus, better prospects slide down.

TexanJedi · #10 01-31-2009, 08:28 AM

The NFL is a copycat league, Flacco and Ryan's success this season could lead a team to conclude they can do the same with a rookie QB.

nero THE zero · #11 01-31-2009, 01:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roy P

Taking a closer look at this, I would contend that the Buccanners might be in the mix with the Vikings and Lions. Gruden is gone, Garcia is old, Griese is just a guy, and the coach has some time to allow a rookie to grow. With 5 possible teams looking to add Sanchez or Stafford all pretty much right after us, then there could be some jitters and offers coming our way. The Ravens and Falcons did well with Rookie coaches and Rookie QBs.

Our # 15 is worth 1050 and the Bucs #19 is only 875 points. That leaves a 3rd round pick #83 = 175 points (The Bucs have pick #81 = 185 points). At #19 the Texans could pull another Duane Brown type pick and take a guy nobody thought was a 1st round guy like DE Paul Kruger or Robert Ayers. Also, some of the same guys we talk about at #15 could still be available at #19 like DT Jerry, LB Laurinaitus, LB Cushing, CB Moore, CB Davis, RB McCoy, or RB Brown. Then when #81 rolls around we could get a guy like Slaton in OC Wood, LB/DE Brown, DT Magee, QB Freeman, or FS Johnson.

Garcia is actually an UFA, so that makes this scenario all the more likely.

NBT · #12 01-31-2009, 01:52 PM

I don't think any of the QB's coming out this year are on par with either Ryan or Flacco.

jppaul · #13 01-31-2009, 02:47 PM

NBT how well do you think Flacco would have done had he been on Detroit. I think Ryan is the real deal but I am not so sure about Flacco, he was propped up by one of the league's best defenses and a run first philosophy on D.

Roy P · #14 01-31-2009, 05:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NBT

I don't think any of the QB's coming out this year are on par with either Ryan or Flacco.

It doesn't matter what you think. The only thing that matters is what an NFL GM thinks. Remember that Kyle Boller was drafted, after the Ravens traded up for him. Hell, we drafted David Carr #1 overall. It only takes one team to value either Stafford or Sanchez so much that they are willing to give us a 3rd round pick to do so.

TexanJedi · #15 01-31-2009, 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roy P

It doesn't matter what you think. The only thing that matters is what an NFL GM thinks. Remember that Kyle Boller was drafted, after the Ravens traded up for him. Hell, we drafted David Carr #1 overall. It only takes one team to value either Stafford or Sanchez so much that they are willing to give us a 3rd round pick to do so.

That's what I had in mind when I suggested a team might try and replicate the Falcons or more specifically the Ravens last year. I remember being surprised when Baltimore traded up for Flacco as he was generally expected to go later in the first. We just need to have a little bit of luck with a player falling we did not expect to be there or another team wanting our pick to select a QB or RB.