The upcoming Tennessee game (12-14-08)

[papabear]

Originally Posted by Joshua

I'm with Kubiak. While the draft is a team's lifeblood, I think it's more important to try to instill confidence, winning attitude, etc. in the team. If these guys can develop a little swagger and learn a little more about how to put teams away over the final month of the season, I'm willing to drop 4 or 5 spots in the draft for this. Pull up any draft over the last decade and half the 1st round picks are mediocre to busts. Having a top 15 picks does not guarantee anything (except giving an unproven college player a boatload of money).

The idea of losing in the NFL for draft position is ridiculous. Sure, on draft day someone I like will probably go a few spots ahead of us, and I'll be pissed. The fact is though that the success or failure of draft picks is so hit and miss that the only thing being higher in the draft guarantees you is that your will have to spend more money.The NBA is another story because one player can make a huge difference...which is why the NBA went to a lottery system to try and keep teams from tanking.

Outside of the top 5-10 picks the contracts aren't necessarily potential cap killers. I think being a mid to late round pick gives you more flexibility too. Look at how few trades happen with the top picks. I think it's easier to make a move if you want to from the middle of the first round....hopefully down.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by papabear

The idea of losing in the NFL for draft position is ridiculous. Sure, on draft day someone I like will probably go a few spots ahead of us, and I'll be pissed. The fact is though that the success or failure of draft picks is so hit and miss that the only thing being higher in the draft guarantees you is that your will have to spend more money.The NBA is another story because one player can make a huge difference...which is why the NBA went to a lottery system to try and keep teams from tanking.

Outside of the top 5-10 picks the contracts aren't necessarily potential cap killers. I think being a mid to late round pick gives you more flexibility too. Look at how few trades happen with the top picks. I think it's easier to make a move if you want to from the middle of the first round....hopefully down.

Nobody here is advocating throwing a game or instructing players to perform at something less than maximum effort. But if the reserves can beat whoever
they play against, then great and the younger guys get some important real game experieince and the coaching staff gets an opportunity to evaluate them all at the same time. Anyway, what was the benefit of winning the season finale last year against the Jags when they rested many of their starters ? And it sure as hell wasn't the impetus for a good start this year as we went 0-4 in Sept ! IMO no difference between 8-8 or 7-9 for the '07 season.
And if one would rather be farther back in the Draft order, just trade that first rounder to move back and with the boot maybe you'll get another Steve
Slaton type value like we did with the trade in this year college Draft ?

[Joshua]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

IMO no difference between 8-8 or 7-9 for the '07 season.
And if one would rather be farther back in the Draft order, just trade that first rounder to move back and with the boot maybe you'll get another Steve
Slaton type value like we did with the trade in this year college Draft ?

Well, one difference if we were 7-9 instead of 8-8 last year is that we would have been picking somewhere between 9 and 15, rather than 18. Not sure how the tie-breakers would have fallen but there is a decent chance we would have been able to draft Chris Williams (LZ said several times that the Texans were high on him and would have drafted him if given the opportunity). He then promptly had back surgery and has missed virtually the entire season. Also, with him available, we likely would not have traded back and thus, no Slaton.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by Joshua

Well, one difference if we were 7-9 instead of 8-8 last year is that we would have been picking somewhere between 9 and 15, rather than 18. Not sure how the tie-breakers would have fallen but there is a decent chance we would have been able to draft Chris Williams (LZ said several times that the Texans were high on him and would have drafted him if given the opportunity). He then promptly had back surgery and has missed virtually the entire season. Also, with him available, we likely would not have traded back and thus, no Slaton.

Well that's all very hypothetical, but OK 2 can play that game. Suppose besides Chris Williams we also have a chance to draft Ryan Clady (who went at #12), the LT in the Draft who is playing at a P-B level in his rookie year ? Given the opportunity to take him I imagine we would have surely jumped.
As far as Slaton goes the pick was in large part dumb luck just as the 4th round pick of another Texans RB, Dominick Davis, was several years ago.

[cadams]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

Well that's all very hypothetical, but OK 2 can play that game. Suppose besides Chris Williams we also have a chance to draft Ryan Clady (who went at #12), the LT in the Draft who is playing at a P-B level in his rookie year ? Given the opportunity to take him I imagine we would have surely jumped.
As far as Slaton goes the pick was in large part dumb luck just as the 4th round pick of another Texans RB, Dominick Davis, was several years ago.

I am pretty happy with the LT they got in the draft. I wouldn't trade Slayton and Brown for Clady right now, maybe in the long run, but not at this point. Also, while I am happy to bash personnel decisions made by this team, smith and kubiak have done a pretty good job in the drafts so far, so I am not going to call them picking slayton "dumb luck", unless you are saying him still being there is dumb luck. of course that can be said about a lot of players, but that is how winning franchises are made and sustained (the texans are not one, but the draft is the way to do it). I guess you could also say that brady being picked in the 6th round was dumb luck, but i will take that kind of luck every year, of course, the patriots consistently have good drafts, so maybe picking players in later rounds isn't all "dumb luck" after all.


p.s. slayton is playing at a pro bowl level in his rookie season as well.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by cadams

I am pretty happy with the LT they got in the draft. I wouldn't trade Slayton and Brown for Clady right now, maybe in the long run, but not at this point. Also, while I am happy to bash personnel decisions made by this team, smith and kubiak have done a pretty good job in the drafts so far, so I am not going to call them picking slayton "dumb luck", unless you are saying him still being there is dumb luck. of course that can be said about a lot of players, but that is how winning franchises are made and sustained (the texans are not one, but the draft is the way to do it). I guess you could also say that brady being picked in the 6th round was dumb luck, but i will take that kind of luck every year, of course, the patriots consistently have good drafts, so maybe picking players in later rounds isn't all "dumb luck" after all.


p.s. slayton is playing at a pro bowl level in his rookie season as well.

Texans had 2 picks in the third round of this years Draft in which they selected Antwaan Moulden followed by Steve Slaton. So like I said, dumb luck. And the Brady pick in the 6th round by the Pats wasn't dumb luck, it was incredibly dumb luck. No, make that World-Class dumb luck. But I would agree with your remark about Slaton & Brown vs Clady - I'd also be hard-pressed to make that trade. But as you say, its still too soon to know for sure about that comparison.
But except for Okoye (who's starting to look like a 4-letter word that begins with "B"), Smith & Kubiak get an A for their Draft performances so far. Now if
only we could get the same kind of results out of their FA selections ?

[barrett]

Its not dumb luck.

Now is their an element of luck involved? Sure. The Texans tried to draft a good 3rd down back and accidentally got a good back. They still had to scout him and like him more than the other 200 or so guys available at the time. So if anything, I'd call it "smart luck."

By the way, the Patriots drafted Brady on the word of one scout in their organization who liked him. When asked about it, the guy who ran their draft that year said "yeah we're real smart. So smart we passed on him 5 times."

So obviously luck plays a role, but it's not like we crossed our fingers and Steve Slaton appeared. You have to give credit, otherwise you can't blame a team for being unlucky on a bad pick.

[papabear]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

Texans had 2 picks in the third round of this years Draft in which they selected Antwaan Moulden followed by Steve Slaton. So like I said, dumb luck. And the Brady pick in the 6th round by the Pats wasn't dumb luck, it was incredibly dumb luck. No, make that World-Class dumb luck.

By that rationale you could say MArio Williams was dumb luck...or any pick in the draft for that matter, and you would be at least partly right.

But except for Okoye (who's starting to look like a 4-letter word that begins with "B"),

I still thinks it's way too early to call Okoye a bust. He might never be an all pro, but if you can just get a solid starter out of the first round you are ahead of the curve in most cases. I would say Okoye has been less the solid, but considering his age when drafted and the position he plays making any kind of judgment on his career before he finishes his second season is pre-mature.

[papabear]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

Nobody here is advocating throwing a game or instructing players to perform at something less than maximum effort. But if the reserves can beat whoever
they play against, then great and the younger guys get some important real game experieince and the coaching staff gets an opportunity to evaluate them all at the same time.

I'm not saying that anyone is advocating throwing in the towel. Just making a point.

I'm all for playing the younger players more...as long as they have given the coaches some reason to think they deserve it by practicing well and/or playing well when given the opportunity. Not because I had a guy highly rated on my personal draft board.

Anyway, what was the benefit of winning the season finale last year against the Jags when they rested many of their starters ? And it sure as hell wasn't the impetus for a good start this year as we went 0-4 in Sept ! IMO no difference between 8-8 or 7-9 for the '07 season.

quick pet peeve: We were missing just as many starters as the Jags were, except ours wasn't because of choice. Neither team had anything to play for but pride.

What would have been the benefit of losing it? OK, a higher draft pick...which has just as high as a potential to be a bust as a later pick only with a higher cap cost. Without the benefit of hindsight there's no way that the team, or anyone else, can guarantee that we end up with a better or worse player.

One benefit of having some momentum going into the off season could be in retaining your own free agents. AJ made comments about how tired he was of losing. Does he re-sign if he doesn't like the direction of the team a couple of years ago? Dunta's made similar, even more outspoken comments, and is headed towards free agency. Owen Daniels is probably due a contract extension. It's all unfounded speculation, but I would rather guys like that to end the season with a good feeling about the team so that when they have to decide on whether to sign an extension or test free agency they are more likely to stick around.

And if one would rather be farther back in the Draft order, just trade that first rounder to move back and with the boot maybe you'll get another Steve
Slaton type value like we did with the trade in this year college Draft ?

I would love to, but it's easier said than done. Because of the uncertainty of the draft there are always a more teams looking to move back than the other way around. Most teams would rather lower the financial risk while at the same time increase their chances of hitting a home run on draft day by having more choices. That's why most fan sites are always clamoring for their team to trade down. Sure there are trades on draft day, but usually big ones are rare. Teams move up a few spots, or teams that have stockpiled extra picks are willing to take the gamble. The fact is it's very hard to find someone willing to give up much to move up.

Theoretically, the more options you have when your pick comes up the better so being at the top of the draft order is a good thing. We wouldn't have Mario right now if we didn't have the first pick a few years ago, but we really didn't know what we had then...and most "experts" thought we were crazy. Hindsight makes that decision look easy now. I was someone who wanted Mario over Reggie well before the draft, but no one knew how it would all turn out. Being farther back in the draft gives you a lower financial risk with just as good a chance of finding a special player IMO.

I do want to be last in the draft because we won the Superbowl though .

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by papabear

Theoretically, the more options you have when your pick comes up the better so being at the top of the draft order is a good thing. We wouldn't have Mario right now if we didn't have the first pick a few years ago, but we really didn't know what we had then...and most "experts" thought we were crazy. Hindsight makes that decision look easy now. I was someone who wanted Mario over Reggie well before the draft, but no one knew how it would all turn out. Being farther back in the draft gives you a lower financial risk with just as good a chance of finding a special player IMO.

Well if we knew back then what we know now, we would have cut David Carr in 2006, drafted Jay Cutler and lived happily ever after.
But regarding the value of Draft picks, its arguable that the least valuable pick in the Draft is the #1 because its so expensive cap-wise. But after the #1 (and maybe #2 and #3 for the same reason), most agree that the higher the Draft pick the more valuable. But I really think the trade value of Draft picks are more a function of the individual players in any given draft and the needs of the teams in that Draft.