Official Texans @ Jaguars Game Thread, 12/7/2014

[Arky]

The line has moved up to Texans favored by 6.5 to 7. That means most of the action is coming in on the Texans. Walterfootball has it as 88%.

Walt brings up a couple of interesting trends when the betting gets lopsided like this:

85-15 RULE:

Teams getting 80-84 percent of the action, past two seasons: 24-16-1 ATS.
Teams getting 85-plus percent of the action, past two seasons: 10-23-1 ATS.

(The Broncos are 3-1 ATS when getting 85 percent or more, so if you exclude them, this dynamic is 7-22-1 ATS in the past two seasons.)

And then, further along in the Texans vs. Jags matchup, there's this:

RECAP: I'm not betting this game. The Texans could easily dominate - again, Watt versus a terrible quarterback has been money this year - but going against the 85-15 Rule is not something I want to be a part of, even though the public is a ridiculous 9-1 when fading the Jaguars at 75-plus percent. I also think this spread is pretty fairly priced, as I had it at Texans -5.

Gun to my head, I'm still taking the Texans, but not with any sort of conviction.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This is an 85-15 game. However, the Jaguars are the only team that seldom covers in this situation.

So, all this to say, the trends show when there is heavy betting of the public at over an 85% clip, that favorite seldom covers against the spread. Unless it's the Jags......

So, who's the right side? Dunno, but don't be surprised if it's a closer game than expected....

[Arky]

And here we go.....

Jags win the toss and defer. Texans to receive.

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Kickoff goes out of the end zone, touchback. Texans will have the ball at their 20.

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Foster goes right side for about 15 but holding on Fido brings it back. -10 yards makes it 1st and 20.

Foster for about 6. Brings up 2nd and 14.

Foster for about 8. 3rd and 6 coming up.

Fitz can't find a receiver and scrambles for 2. Texans will have to punt.

Jags fair catch the punt at their 27 yard line. Jag's ball.

[Arky]

Pass to Shorts too low, inc. 2nd and 10 coming up.

Pass to Shorts goes inc but holding on the Texans gives an auto 1st down at the 33 yard line.

Pass to Shorts gets 6.

Bortles keeps and runs for 9 yards. Ball at the Jag 46.

Robinson for 3.

Pass to Hurns gets 5. 3rd and 2 coming up.

Timeout Texans. 10:04 left in the 1st qtr.

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On 3rd down, pass is deflected by Brooks Reed, inc. Jags going for it on 4th and 2......

Jags bluff, delay of game. Jags will punt.

K Martin fair catches the punt at the Texan 15. Texan's ball.

[Arky]

Pass to Hopkins goes for 10 and a 1st down.

Fitz trips handing off, loss of 4.

Foster for loss of 1. Brings up 3rd and 15.

Screen to AJ loses 5. Texans will punt on 4th and 20.

Punt is downed at the Jags 49 yard line. Jag's ball.

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Jets 9, Vikings 7

Panthers 10, Saints 0

Dolphins 3, Ravens 0

[Arky]

Bortles rolls out and throws inc.

Robinson gets 3. Brings up 3rd and 7.

Pass to Lee goes for 26 yards. 1st down at the Texan 32.

Gerhart for 4.

Pass to Shorts too long, inc but offsides on Watt = 5 yards. Makes it 2nd and 1.

Robinson goes left side for 16 yards. 1st and goal Jags at the 7 yard line.

Gerhart goes left for about 3.

Pass to Hurns in the end zone is complete for the TD.

Jags 7, Texans 0

3:39 left in the 1st qtr.

[Arky]

D Johnson brings the ensuing kickoff back to the Texan 21 yard line. Texan's ball.

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Foster gets loose for big gainer! 51 yards! Ball at the Jag 29.

Screen pass to AJ goes for -1. 2nd and 11 coming up.

Foster goes for almost 5. 3rd and 7 coming up.

Pass to Foster broken up, inc. Texans will go for the FG.

Bullock's 44-yarder is good.

Jags 7, Texans 3

1:22 left in the 1st qtr.

[Big Texas]

We are seeing the other side of Fitz. Side note: can Andre no longer be relied on to beat his man in a route downfield?

[Arky]

Giants 10, Titans 0

Lions 7, Bucs 0

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Jags down the ensuing kickoff in the end zone, touchback. Jag's ball at their 20.

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Bortles pass to high for Shorts, inc. 2nd and 10 coming up.

Robinson for 3. Brings up 3rd and 7.

Bortles goes on the move but Mercilus catches him. 5 yard gain. Jags will punt.

Martin gets a decent return on the punt. Texan's ball at their 48.