O'Brien Coy About Draft Options

[nunusguy]

ESPN's Bill Polian on Johnny Manziel: "Arm strength is absolutely not an issue." Says Manziel has stronger arm than Bortles & Bridgewater.
http://inagist.com/all/449178733279064064/
For me this is interesting and semi significant because I've read that Bortles had the strongest arm among the "Big Three", but Polian is no bozo and the words
"stronger arm than Bortles & Bridgewater" are surprising.
Anyway, both Zack Mettenberger and Tom Savage of Pitt have bigger arms, and they are the kind of big, strapping guys OB reportedly favors physically speaking who can be had in the 2nd or later rounds.

[HPF Bob]

If Manzeil was a "one man wrecking crew", how come his LT will be Top 10 in this year's draft and his top WR a likely a first-round choice? Not to mention his LT last year was a first-rounder and his top WR was chosen despite a history of concussions? I think your characterization of A&M's offensive talent is vastly underrated.

One could say Manzeil had a better supporting cast than Bridgewater or Bortles had. Can you name any offensive players Louisville had besides Bridgewater? Can you name any offensive players UCF had beside Bortles and Storm Johnson? Yes, they played against weaker competition but they also played *alongside* weaker teammates than Manzeil had and still managed to shine.

[Joshua]

He was a one-man wrecking crew much like Cam Newton was. Yes, he has some good talent around him (as did Newton), but his ability to singlehandedly impact games was second to none.

Are we really going to argue over whether Manziel was a dominant college football player?

[HPF Bob]

Originally Posted by Joshua

Are we really going to argue over whether Manziel was a dominant college football player?

Just so long as we have an understanding that being dominant in college (Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Tim Tebow) doesn't mean squat regarding their potential NFL success.

[Joshua]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

Just so long as we have an understanding that being dominant in college (Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Tim Tebow) doesn't mean squat regarding their potential NFL success.

You sure about that? How a guy plays in college "doesn't mean squat" regarding their NFL potential? So what are you gauging his potential on if not how he played in college? Now, clearly, no one has suggested that being a good college player guarantees that he will be a good pro, but you'd rather have a guy that played well in college versus one that did not.

[Nconroe]

Manziel is certainly a leader and a polarizing figure, love him or hate him, something like Tebow but for different reasons, almost too much hype and publicity.

Ron Jaworkski on NFL network this morning said he was moving Manziel up from 4th round to 3rd round now, after his pro day workout.

Reason that Jaworkski had him that low - most of his throws are on the run and out of the pocket. If throws from the pocket he would give higher marks.

Another NFL analyst said Manziel reminded him most of Doug Flutie who did well. Then the other analyst said Flutie was drafted in 11 th round and over 13 year career only had 66 starts if want to call that successful.

There are plenty people who have Manziel rated higher or at the top as well.

Apparently Norv Turner at Minnesota said he likes Manziel. Minnesota has 8th pick.

And five more weeks of over analysis till draft starts.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by barrett

If arm strength and legs don't matter and we want smart, then we should have just kept Schaub. Or just go with Fitzpatrick. He's plenty smart. There may be wastes of talent, but that doesn't mean raw talent, or a lack of it, can be ignored.

Did I say they didn't matter? No, I said arm strength was OVERRATED. Different meaning. And I say it is overrated versus other QB attributes, namely poise and decision-making under pressure.

Originally Posted by Joshua

I'm with you on leaning heavily on the games themselves. And no one played better in the actual games than Manziel. He was a one-man wrecking crew against some of the best defenses in football. And the notion that he did it primarily with his legs is completely misplaced. During the actual games, he threw for more yards, averaged more yards per attempt, threw for more touchdowns, took less sacks, and had a higher passer rating than Bridgewater (although he did throw more picks and his completion percentage was 1% lower - 71% to 70%). And no one played better when the pressure was on than Manziel. The guy relishes playing in big games and routinely did it with his arm. Just because ESPN generally runs his running highlights doesn't mean the throws weren't there.

I don't discredit anyone favoring Manziel over another QB in this draft for the right reasons. He has an interesting mix of skills and moxie, some of which just cannot be quantified. I really don't have much of a problem with his 'supposed' off-field concerns either. Brett Favre was no choir boy. Really, a combo of Favre and Steve Young is quite the comparison. That he says BOOM after hitting a wide open receiver on a pro day wearing camo shorts is kinda dumb, but I admire the competitiveness.

I don't think I implied Manziel was successful primarily because of his legs, but there is no doubt they were a significant contributing factor to his collegiate success. Almost the opposite is said of Bridgewater... lots of rumpled faces looking at his rushing stats, though he has ample pocket poise. He is the checkdown Charlie. It does not wow you come draft day.

The numbers seem to validate that Manziel is arguably the best downfield passer in this field based on college stats, but when I consider what I suspect BOB's offense to be, I expect more of a short passing game than a deep one. And there are sites and articles like this one below that consistently demonstrate college stats where Bridgewater is the preferred player under a blitz.

How Do They Do Under Pressure?

I’ve got quite a few stats for these QBs, but for the sake of brevity I’ve picked their completion percentage while being blitzed and under pressure to highlight. For reference, a blitz counts regardless of whether the O-line picks it up, but under pressure is when the QB is moved off his spot or has to get rid of the ball quicker than anticipated.

Bridgewater - Manziel
Pressure: 62.96% - 60.38%
No Pressure: 79.78% - 78.27%
Blitz: 76.92% - 68.57%
No Blitz: 77.97% - 78.50%

- When looking at both categories, Bridgewater is the clear winner. He and Bortles both complete about 63% of their passes when under pressure, but Bridgewater is heads above the other QBs against the blitz – nearly matching his ability when there are no extra rushers. ...

- Manziel’s just about average in both categories where he’s just about where you’d expect a top notch college QB to be.

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cf...back-conundrum

So, again, my preference is the guy with the short area poise and smarts that excels in the short-to-medium passing game under a blitz as well as under no pressure.

Let's recall too what Bill O'Brien wants in a quarterback.


1. They have to be able to throw the ball accurately. They don't have to be the greatest athletes in the world.
2. They have to be able to make good decisions. You can judge that off the field.
3. They have to be intelligent, with a great football IQ.

[nunusguy]

Let the record show that today, March 28, 2014, 41 days before the start of the 2014 NFL Draft, the first crazy draft rumor about the Buffalo Bills surfaced. (That's crazy in scope, not in accuracy or lack thereof, for the record.) It comes via veteran NFL reporter Dan Pompei, who currently works for Bleacher Report.

"Word from the NFL meetings is the Texans are trying hard to deal the first pick in the draft. They want to move down and acquire extra selections. Sources say they might have a trade partner in the Bills, who appear interested in moving up," writes Pompei. "It is unclear who the Bills would want in a trade-up scenario. Some believe they would move up for a quarterback. They also could make good use of an offensive tackle such as Greg Robinson. And it would be something to see them pair Mario Williams with either Jadeveon Clowney or Khalil Mack."

http://www.buffalorumblings.com/buff...rade-up-texans
**********
Probably means nothing, but there likely will be many such stories like this as we move closer to the Draft. Buffalo is @ #9 overall , but arguably that's a "potentially" better trading partner that is more appealing than another team drafting higher since we do need quantity of Draft picks more than anything IMO.

[Nconroe]

If Clowney is a once every 10 year skill player there could be several teams wanting to trade up to get him. Just to play along.

[HPF Bob]

If the Bills can move up to #4 or #5 and still put together a package to get to Number 1, sure the Texans will listen. But the Texans aren't falling to ninth.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Keith

Did I say they didn't matter? No, I said arm strength was OVERRATED. Different meaning. And I say it is overrated versus other QB attributes, namely poise and decision-making under pressure.

Schaub was a very effective NFL quarterback when he had a decent arm. When his arm strength became below average he cratered. Arm strength alone is obviously not enough. But I never hear anyone claim it is. I don't hear anybody out there declaring Flacco and Cutler the best NFL QBs. I don't think arm strength is overrated. I think it is properly rated (and necessary). How many great (or even really good QBs) have below average arm strength? Prof. Manning is the only one I can think of.

Arm strength may not assure QB success, but lack of arm strength all but guarantees failure (see Schaub, Matt for the latest example).

I am not at all saying that Bridgewater will fail due to arm strength, but if the 'running' QB with a low first round grade has a better arm and faster release than the 2 'throwing' QBs, than why exactly are any of them in play at 1.1? Is any of them clearly superior as a prospect to Geno Smith or is the need at QB just big for a bunch of round 1 teams this year?

I am wildly rooting for a trade down (though I don't think we get that much). I am into Clowney if we stick put.

When it comes to the QBs I don't see how Bortles is in the picture. And between Manziel and Bridgewater, I am most afraid to draft Manziel, and I am most afraid not to draft Manziel.

[Roy P]

First, if I can't trade down with the Jags, Browns, or Falcons...I would have no problem trading with the Bills. I have to believe they would want Greg Robinson. They got the QB I wanted last year in EJ Manuel. They would have to trade up over The Rams to get Robinson, who looks like Orlando Pace or Jonathan Ogden. At #9 maybe the worst case scenario is TE Eric Enron. If we garnered plenty of picks, we still grab Garoppolo or McCaron, and I'd be fine with that.

[Joshua]

Tend to agree with Bob on the proposed trade. I'd be really surprised if the Texans traded all the way back to 9.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by barrett

I don't think arm strength is overrated. I think it is properly rated (and necessary).

It becomes overrated when choosing a QB with the better arm strength over one with more of the things O'Brien mentions in that video, namely: accuracy, decision-making, and intelligence.

A certain amount of arm strength is like a prerequisite, as in, "you must be this tall to ride the ride" of playing QB in the NFL... or in other words, your QB's arm must be strong enough to make the necessary throws accurately. I agree that 2013 Schaub could not, hence several of the uncharacteristic picks he threw last season. But you keep mentioning 2013 Schaub as though someone with as weak an arm as his was in this draft. I do not think Teddy's arm is comparable to 2013 Schaub's, do you? If so, then I can see passing over Teddy.

So if all draftable QBs in this class have enough arm strength to complete passes accurately in O'Brien's new offense, which I would think that all the guys we are discussing do, then these prospects move on in the evaluation, i.e. any additional arm strength in excess of this prerequisite is not of as much value to me as are other factors, namely accuracy, decision-making, and intelligence.

I don't dismiss Manziel as lacking these last three talents; rather I prefer them in what I have seen from Bridgewater versus whatever more arm strength Manziel can provide.

I imagine the answer to whom O'Brien prefers has less to do with what we see on pro days and far more with what he hears from them when talking about how to attack a defense. The prospect who aces that pre-draft test is the one we'll see hoisting a Texans jersey in May.

Just look at his pick for wet nursing the job... Fitzpatrick. Does his arm impress anyone? No? Or maybe he is on the roster and not T.J. Yates or someone with an obviously stronger arm because Fitzpatrick is intelligent, like Harvard-intelligent.

Of course, it seems BOB is favoring his Irishmen here as well (McGloin at PSU, now Fitzpatrick). If I'm Manziel, maybe I'm changing my last name before draft day to McCarron...

[Roy P]

One of the concerns I have about the QB position is the RT & RG positions. It's hard to display arm strength or accuracy while on your ass. Also, when the RB only has success on the left side of the Center, that's not helpful in staying balanced. I recall the Bears having similar issues two years ago. Then, the selected Kyle Long and another Rookie and made Cutler and McCown look pretty impressive. I admit Quessenberry was one of "My Guys" last year, but I'm not sure how Ferentz and O'Brien assess the situation. Trading back to #9 could perhaps Taylor Lewan and then Xavier Su'a-Filo be put on the roster in the same day? Just another consideration.

[nunusguy]

I doubt if there's anything to the rumors about a Texans-Bills trade, probably just the media fabricating stories to keep readers interested until the actual Draft which is still over a month off. But it there was something to the rumors, I suspect the Texans would pursue a deal. I could see trading our 1.1 for the
Bills 1.9 & 2.9 & 3.9 picks, or for their 1.9 & 2.9 & their second round pick in 2015. At 1.9 we would probably have Taylor Lewan or Zack Martin to choose from to plug up that hole at RT, or a CB like Justin Gilbert or maybe an edge rusher like Anthony Barr.
Hardly anything more that a pure guess here, but I don't think O'Brien is any more impressed with the Bortles, Manziel, and Bridgewater threesome than he is in the next 3 or 4 QB prospects. What we really need is Draft picks, lots of them, and if trading our 1.1 gets more picks I suspect the Texans will do it.

[Nconroe]

I agree last year looked like defense was on top of our QB way to fast, way to often.

Seemed to me breakdowns came all along the line , not just right side.

How will that be fixed? Incrementally. We will have a new offensive system this year.

If Foster and running game returns will help.

If TE can contribute more will help.

Maybe better play calls or QB checkdowns could help.

Just avoid turnovers would help a lot.

[HPF Bob]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

Hardly anything more that a pure guess here, but I don't think O'Brien is any more impressed with the Bortles, Manziel, and Bridgewater threesome than he is in the next 3 or 4 QB prospects. What we really need is Draft picks, lots of them, and if trading our 1.1 gets more picks I suspect the Texans will do it.

The Texans already have 11 picks in this draft (although only three in the first three rounds). I think they could parlay their two sixes and their 4th and move up high in the third if they wanted to.

And if they wanted to fix their RT hole and were not impressed with Clowney or the three QBs, they probably should target Matthews and fall no further than fifth or sixth.

[Roy P]

I would be content if the first pick was Justin Gilbert, Taylor Lewan, Anthony Barr, Eric Ebron, or Kahlil Mack; especially if we picked up an extra 2nd & third round pick. I am not excited about packaging picks to move up for an additional third rounder. Off the top of my head the holes I want filled include:
1. QB 2. RT 3. ILB 4. TE 5. DE 6. RG 7. RB 8. NT 9. WR 10. CB

I took of FS because of the FA signings. So, I want to keep all my picks. Unless of course, Garoppolo is still on the board at the bottom of the Second round and we still haven't drafted a QB.

[HPF Bob]

Originally Posted by Roy P

I would be content if the first pick was Justin Gilbert, Taylor Lewan, Anthony Barr, Eric Ebron, or Kahlil Mack; especially if we picked up an extra 2nd & third round pick. I am not excited about packaging picks to move up for an additional third rounder. Off the top of my head the holes I want filled include:
1. QB 2. RT 3. ILB 4. TE 5. DE 6. RG 7. RB 8. NT 9. WR 10. CB

I took of FS because of the FA signings. So, I want to keep all my picks. Unless of course, Garoppolo is still on the board at the bottom of the Second round and we still haven't drafted a QB.

Mack is really the only one in that bunch I would be excited to draft and only then if we traded down considerably.

Off the top of my head the holes I want filled include:
1. QB 2. RT 3. ILB 4. TE 5. DE 6. RG 7. RB 8. NT 9. WR 10. CB

Yes, except I would list the priority as 1. QB, 2. RT 3. ILB 4. DE-OLB (pass-rusher) 5. RB 6. NT 7. TE 8. CB 9. RG 10. WR. But, of course, you make exceptions based on the draft board and who's available.

If we stay at 1-1, I want Clowney or Bridgewater.

If we trade down, I want Matthews, Mack or Bortles. If we trade down, I would insist on a high second-rounder and a third or possibly a 2015 1st-round so i can grab two players in the second, two in the third and two in the fourth. Then you've filled most of your needs.

I'd like to also get a real kick-returner with a late pick. I've never been thrilled with Martin or Manning back there.