McNair: Texans Open To Trading Down

[HPF Bob]

Whether it was heartfelt or not, McNair did the right thing by opening up the possibility of a trade down. If they want to get two #1s this year, they can currently talk to the Browns or the Rams. While I see the Browns as a possibility, I don't for the Rams although if the Texans and Rams are both interested in the same player, I could see the Rams trading up one spot for Washington's #1 (2nd overall) and something small like a 4th rounder.

Trading with Cleveland only makes sense if the guy the Texans target is likely to still be there at #7 or the position in need has several suitable guys and one is bound to be there (like an OT).

I like the CB from Michigan St. and I think he'll still be there at #7. Is he a better choice than Clowney though? Less risky?

[jcp]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

Trading with Cleveland only makes sense if the guy the Texans target is likely to still be there at #7 or the position in need has several suitable guys and one is bound to be there (like an OT).

I like the CB from Michigan St. and I think he'll still be there at #7. Is he a better choice than Clowney though? Less risky?

Pretty sure Cleveland has the 4th pick which makes it more attractive. They may want bridgewater bad enough and that likely would leave us with our pick of defensive players...who knows what qb the jags will take

[nunusguy]

While there may not be the total absence of QB talent in this Draft that there was in last years Draft, it's still hard to justify any of these QBs as worthy of being a #1 overall, so no doubt that McNair would trade the pick unless in the unlikely circumstances the Texans have a QB they really like.
I think clearly the best non-QB prospect is Clowney who's a better prospect than Mario was for in 2006, and he turned out to be a wise choice by the Texans. There's also no "franchise" LT in this Draft, not that the Texans need one anyway with Duane Brown still in his twenties and under contract for some time.

[Joshua]

Sorry to go off topic but I'm curious about something. Seems like many here don't want us to take a QB or at least would be fine with it if we traded down and got a RT or something like that. Is this because you don't think any of these guys has the potential to develop into a franchise guy? Or is it that you think that we can win without an above average QB if all the other parts are good enough so there's no need to "reach" for a QB?

If it's the first, I'd like to hear your reasoning on each guy. If it's the second, I'm at a loss for how people think you can have sustained success in today's NFL without a really good QB. Take this year's playoffs. With the exception of Alex Smith, the other 11 QBs were all in the top 15 in ESPN's total QBR rankings. The other guys in the top 15 were Romo and Cutler/McCown combo, who missed the playoffs on the last day of the season to a better QB on the list. With rare exceptions, you can basically predict the standings by looking at nothing but QB rankings.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by Joshua

Sorry to go off topic but I'm curious about something. Seems like many here don't want us to take a QB or at least would be fine with it if we traded down and got a RT or something like that.

Right back at you - I'm curious why anybody would entertain using a top 5 or even top 10 pick on a RT ? And using the #1 overall on a guy who's going to be your RT tackle for years is just ludicrous IMO. It's kinda like saying you are gonna use a very high pick for your #2 WR.

[Joshua]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

Right back at you - I'm curious why anybody would entertain using a top 5 or even top 10 pick on a RT ? And using the #1 overall on a guy who's going to be your RT tackle for years is just ludicrous IMO. It's kinda like saying you are gonna use a very high pick for your #2 WR.

I'm the wrong guy to ask because I'm not in favor of that. Bob can chime in since I'm pretty sure he was banging the Jake Mathews drum on here somewhere.

I'm of the opinion that sustained success only comes if you have one of the top 10 QBs. Anything less than that and best case scenario, we're back to where we were in 2011 and 2012. Good enough to get in if our running game and defense are clicking but not a tremendous threat to go the distance. So we must do everything in our power to get one, which pretty much means staying put at No. 1 and taking the best QB.

[HPF Bob]

My bad. Cleveland has the 4th and the 26th picks of the first round and they *are* as desperate for a QB as we are.

I would not take Matthews at 1-1 but it should be noted that the Chiefs already had Brandon Albert who was a higher draft pick than Duane Brown when they selected Eric Fisher at 1-1 last spring and he has helped turn their club around.

Jake Matthews can be used in a similar capacity - as an RT until Duane Brown is done then an LT for emergencies and for later down the road. There's no doubt to me that we haven't had decent play on the right side of the OL since Winston and Briesel left which had as much to do with the downfall of the offense as anything else. Solidify the line and put in an offense that emphasizes quick-strike throws and you can get by great with a mediocre quarterback.

If you can acquire a good QB some other way than a high first-round choice, I think you're further ahead than getting a rookie QB 1-1 and watching them go through a couple of years of learning curve.

[Joshua]

[QUOTE=HPF Bob;Solidify the line and put in an offense that emphasizes quick-strike throws and you can get by great with a mediocre quarterback

If you can acquire a good QB some other way than a high first-round choice, I think you're further ahead than getting a rookie QB 1-1 and watching them go through a couple of years of learning curve.[/QUOTE]

When you say "get by", does that include win a Super Bowl? The last 20 years suggest that's a long shot. While it's happened a couple times, it is not a course I would recommend.

Agreed that it would be nice to somehow find a franchise QB somewhere besides our first pick, but I note that the details of this plan are absent.

There are no guarantees in the NFL so you have to play the percentages. The numbers overwhelmingly suggest that a good QB is damn near a prerequisite to sustained success and that the best place to find one is the 1st round (and often the 1st pick). Or to bring it back to the particulars here, who do you think we're more likely to land in the 3rd round-a franchise QB or a RT?

[HPF Bob]

I see your point but we've already tried drafting a franchise QB at 1-1 and it didn't pan out. So folks will immediately come back with "Carr was ruined because they didn't build an offensive line for him" which kinda makes my point in reverse. The Oilers (God rest their souls) drafted Matthews, Munchak and Steinkuhler in the first round for three straight years, signed Warren Moon out of Canada and had a prolific offense for seven years.

Building an offense around a quality offensive line is just as valid as building around a QB.

Where I'm going with this is that Matthews is the safe pick in this draft. If we're not gobsmacked by Bridgewater, Manziel or Boritles, we can add elsewhere and then take our chance with a good QB at 2-1 bring aboard Ryan Mallett or Kirk Cousins or Matt Cassel and wait for the QBOTF to take over.

[Warren]

Speaking of RT, it will be interesting to see what the new staff does with Brennan Williams and David Quessenberry, last year's draft picks who spent the year on IR. Same with OLB Trevardo Williams on the other side of the ball.

[popanot]

Gil Brandt (@Gil_Brandt)
1/6/14, 3:00 PM
O'Brien likes big QBs. I could see #Texans trying to trade w #Patriots for Ryan Mallett, going diff direction in draft.

Couldn't figure out a good place for this post, but it could factor into a trade down. Don't like Mallett at all.

[Joshua]

Originally Posted by popanot

Gil Brandt (@Gil_Brandt)
1/6/14, 3:00 PM
O'Brien likes big QBs. I could see #Texans trying to trade w #Patriots for Ryan Mallett, going diff direction in draft.

Couldn't figure out a good place for this post, but it could factor into a trade down. Don't like Mallett at all.

I just find humor in Brandt saying he likes big QBs. Name me a coach that doesn't. Has any coach ever said, "he's good and all but he's 6' 4" and I'm looking for a guy 5'11"." And last year he played McGoin who's about 6', 200 lbs.

[popanot]

I don't think O'Brien had much of a choice with McGloin. It was his first year at PSU and McGloin was his best option. He quickly went with a bigger Brady-type QB in Hackenburg when he was able to go with 'his' recruit/guy.

[Joshua]

As I understand it, Hackenberg was a 5 star recruit and one of the top H.S. QBs in the country and O'Brien got him to commit to a team on probation that wasn't even bowl eligible. While that shows his recruiting chops, I don't think it says much else. Was there other 5 star QBs that he turned away because he didn't think they were tall enough? All Hackenberg tells me is he likes well regarded QBs. And if going with Hackenberg was enough, then every college coach in the country only wants big QBs because virtually all of them would taken Hackenberg.

[popanot]

Originally Posted by Joshua

As I understand it, Hackenberg was a 5 star recruit and one of the top H.S. QBs in the country and O'Brien got him to commit to a team on probation that wasn't even bowl eligible. While that shows his recruiting chops, I don't think it says much else.

Who knows what BOB's real preference is, but historically, he's been involved more with bigger framed QBs so I don't think it's far a stretch for Brant or others to assume he prefers a larger QB. When I see more and more respected NFL insiders (or folks much closer to info than you or I) saying BOB likes larger QB's and seeing names like Bortles and Mallett to the Texans being tossed around, there might be something to it. Of course, it could just be speculation.

[Joshua]

Originally Posted by popanot

Who knows what BOB's real preference is, but historically, he's been involved more with bigger framed QBs so I don't think it's far a stretch for Brant or others to assume he prefers a larger QB. When I see more and more respected NFL insiders (or folks much closer to info than you or I) saying BOB likes larger QB's and seeing names like Bortles and Mallett to the Texans being tossed around, there might be something to it. Of course, it could just be speculation.

True enough. And I'm not trying to argue with you, I just think that all coaches prefer bigger framed QBs, so I don't think this is actually saying anything. I suspect Sean Payton and Pete Carroll prefer bigger QBs, but recognized they had something special in Brees and Wilson.

So, I don't think it's a question of whether he prefers big QBs (I think every coach does). The question is whether he would write off the Breeses and Wilsones of the world because they didn't meet some height requirement. If so, that actually does not speak well of him.

[Roy P]

Since this thread was about trading down....I have a 'what if' hypothetical:

We trade #1 to Cleveland for 4, 35, 71, & 102. The Browns select a Clowney. Then we trade #4 & #102 for #8 & #40 so the Vikings can select a QB. Then we trade #8 & #193 for #12 & #74. Then in my Mock draft we still select CB Justin Gilbert to essentially replace JoJo at the end of his contract and to start right away.

12 Justin Gilbert CB

33 Deone Bucannon S - Makes Keo expendable
35 Marcus Smith OLB - Mercilus and Reed have not developed
40 Kareem Martin DE - Antonio FA soon
46 Xavier Su'a-Filo or Joel Bitonio RT - The need for RT evident

65 Martavis Bryant WR - AJ getting older, like having 2 big WRs
71 Jimmy Garoppolo QB - A better pocket passer than Manziel
74 Bishop Sankey RB - Tate gone to FA

97 Avery Williamson ILB - He can cover RB/TE

129 Zack Kerr NT - Earl Mitchell not a Romeo NT.

161 Jerick McKinnon RB/KR - Depth & Special Teams

My 'perfect' scenario

[Roy P]

I have to admit that I also like ILB Jordan Tripp or Chris Borland if they are available @ #97. Not sure either lasts that long though. Also, the more I watch Gorrapolo, the more I like him. Great feet, balance, quick release, goes through progressions quickly, looks off the Safety instead of locking in on first option. Could be the steal of the draft.

[Nconroe]

Wouldn't that be fun if they could pull off all those trades.

And some think we might get 2 or 3 compensatory picks this year, so maybe we would get two at end of fifth round. So might have three picks together around 161, 162, 163.

So I was thinking TE and another OLB but using your list perhaps
162 ILBRonald Powell
163 OLBHoward Jones

[Roy P]

Updated Mock using Walters Football....

12 OLB Anthony Barr
33 OG Xavier Su'a-Filo
35 DE Trent Murphy
40 TE Austin Sefarian-Jenkins
46 CB Keith McGill
65 RB Bishop Sankey
71 WR Donte Moncrief
74 FS Deone Bucannon
97 QB AJ McCarron
129 OT Trai Turner
161 ILB Avery Williamson
FA NT Zack Kerr

This would be Cherry Picked, knowing I get my QB at #97 and my third ranked player at #12. My top RB as my sixth player selected. I also grabbed a TE who may be a bust, but had enough picks to take a gamble on him.