The Chase for the #1 Overall Pick

[HPF Bob]

Draft standings up to the minute:

1. Jacksonville (2-9)
1. Atlanta (2-9)
1. Houston (2-9)
4. Minnesota (2-8-1)
5. Tampa Bay (3-8)
6. Washington (3-7)* w/Monday night game to play

Keep in mind that things like head-ro-head and division records mean nothing in determining draft order. It is based on strength of schedule and the weaker your opposition, the better so I think Houston will lose any tiebreakers with Jacksonville and possibly Atlanta too.

[nunusguy]

After the completion of yesterdays NFL games, there's only one team remaining with less than 3 wins. Yup, our Texans are #1 today in projections for the
2014 NFL Draft.

[HPF Bob]

Two key games remain on the schedule for the #1 pick - Houston at the suddenly-hot Jaguars on Thursday and Atlanta-Washington the following week. A win or a tie will knock those out of contention. Tampa Bay (at 3-9) seems to be situated best to take over the bottom spot if Houston slips up and wins.

I don't think Houston will win any tiebreakers since the team with the worst (read easiest) strength of schedule is the tiebreaker.

Three overall #1 picks in 12 years. And the first two (Carr, Mario) aren't even with the team today but the 2003 first-rounder still is. Andre is to the Texans what Craig Biggio was to the Astros. Others come and go but Andre stays around and produces. Made his 900th NFL reception yesterday.

[WMH]

As long as we don't do anything stupid, like actually win a game or 2, we'll be fine. Of the others picking in the Top 5, only 1 needs a QB as badly as we do. We'll should be able to grab Bridgewater or Mariotta, if that's what the new regime wants to do (usually the case with new HC's).

I'm guessing the top 5 will likely look like: Houston, Jax, TB, Atlanta, Wash. In some order.

If for some strange reason we fall in the 2nd 5, then we could add JFF or Taj in the mix. Of course, that would mean we'd actually have to win a couple of games......

[Keith]

Split this discussion from the Mock Draft Thread. As noted, following the loss to the Patriots, the Texans are the lone 2-win team and current holders of the #1 draft selection.

Originally Posted by WMH

I'm guessing the top 5 will likely look like: Houston, Jax, TB, Atlanta, Wash. In some order.

So, the Falcons have Matty Ice and the Redskins have RG3. Unclear how attached a new regime would be to Glennon in Tampa.

The Texans have just one home game left (Denver), so that would seem to help them keep the #1, though @JAX, @IND, and @TEN... I wouldn't count them out of winning any of those games.

[popanot]

Well, we're pretty a much a lock for that #1 now. It's so obvious we need a QB, but I hate using a #1 overall on any of the current QB's coming out (maybe pick #6 and beyond). Just our luck we'd suck the year no stud franchise QB is coming out. Here's hoping we are somehow able to trade down and suck again next year for Winston.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by popanot

Well, we're pretty a much a lock for that #1 now. It's so obvious we need a QB, but I hate using a #1 overall on any of the current QB's coming out (maybe pick #6 and beyond). Just our luck we'd suck the year no stud franchise QB is coming out. Here's hoping we are somehow able to trade down and suck again next year for Winston.

True, it's not a Luck-RG3 kind of Draft like it was 2 years ago, but neither is it a Draft where there's a dearth of attractive QB prospects coming out like it was last year, atleast that's what I'm hearing from the socalled Draft-gurus. With only one first round QB last year who lasted until the middle of the round, KC used last years top pick on a OT and he's turning out to be a marginal contributor to their season. That's gotta be disappointing.
Also, the top pick(s) is not as expensive as past years with the flatter/less-progressive rookie cap structure.

[WMH]

Just to add, and I think this is just as important as Rd.1, the first pick in each round is pretty damn good too, especially with the current driver format broken up over a couple of days. Gives ample opportunity to move around if the situation arises.

[nunusguy]

Here's a question about a potential scenario for the Draft ? After last night, it's looking more and more like we get the top pick. OK, so if that happens and we decide to wait until a later round for a QB and therefor use our top pick on the best non-QB in the Draft and assume we think that's Clowney, how much of a factor is it that our best player on our current roster is already a DLineman ? Then to further complicate the situation say we reward JJ with a huge new contract this upcoming offseason as many expect we will do ? Too much cap/resources invested in a single area of the team, i.e., defensive line ?

[Keith]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

... use our top pick on the best non-QB in the Draft and assume we think that's Clowney, how much of a factor is it that our best player on our current roster is already a DLineman ? Then to further complicate the situation say we reward JJ with a huge new contract this upcoming offseason as many expect we will do ? Too much cap/resources invested in a single area of the team, i.e., defensive line ?

Since the new CBA where the 1.1 pick gets so much less money, I don't think that is an issue at all. The most important thing is to draft a player (regardless of position) that is worth that pick's compensation.

As far as over-spending at a particular position group, perhaps DL would be the preferred one, again, assuming you are getting requisite performance in return. After QB, the next most important indicator to continued success is pass rush.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Keith

Since the new CBA where the 1.1 pick gets so much less money, I don't think that is an issue at all. The most important thing is to draft a player (regardless of position) that is worth that pick's compensation.

As far as over-spending at a particular position group, perhaps DL would be the preferred one, again, assuming you are getting requisite performance in return. After QB, the next most important indicator to continued success is pass rush.

I agree with all of this Keith. And I'll add that even though they are both DL, they don't play the same position. Watt is an inside guy and Clowney an outside one. He would be an OLB in our current system and a DE if we end up 43 next year. Watt would likely become a DT in a 43.

As for too much in one position, it has not hurt the Broncos to have Thomas, Decker, and Welker. The Detroit DL carries there whole Defense. The Patriots killed with Gronk and Hernandez. Tamba Hali and Justin Houston anchor one of the two best defenses in football this year and Sherman and Browner anchor the other one.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by barrett

Watt would likely become a DT in a 43.

I see JJ's natural position as a strong-side 4-3 DE, in the mold of Michael Strahande. But he could play inside or outside in the 4-3, much as the great Reggie White did. But JJ is clearly athletic enough to be an edge-rusher as a DE in the 4-3, and then on the strong-side over the TE he'd be a monster against rushing plays.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

I see JJ's natural position as a strong-side 4-3 DE, in the mold of Michael Strahande. But he could play inside or outside in the 4-3, much as the great Reggie White did. But JJ is clearly athletic enough to be an edge-rusher as a DE in the 4-3, and then on the strong-side over the TE he'd be a monster against rushing plays.

It depends largely on down and distance. On run downs he may lineup outside. On pass downs he likely slides inside. He probably bounces around quite a bit either way. But he is not a true edge rush guy, even though he can do enough of it to make a guy respect it and not shade inside. He is most effective over the guard and shooting a gap.