Official Texans vs. Raiders Game Thread, 11/17/2013

[barrett]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

Re: Reading the blitz - something only experience teaches and a QB from a spread offense is going to have trouble diagnosing pro defenses until he learns where the reads are in *real time*. That means playing experience and that's what Case is getting now.

Re: UDFA QB. Kinda nonsense. Would an incoming head coach turn down Tom Brady just because he was a 5th-rounder?

A lot of it will depend on what type of offense a new coach wants to run. If it's a West Coast offense like Kubiak's was based on, the expereience will be a plus. If it is not, there may be other players in the offense who aren't a good fit either.

p.s. - It's a shame this isn't one of those years with three can't miss QBs at the top of the draft board. I'm still solidly in the Matthews camp.

Bob, when was the last time an incoming head coach chose an UDFA with fewer than 10 pro games as his starting QB? Surely if Tom Brady's existence makes it nonsense it has happened before right? Surely some new coach bet his job and future on someone else's UDFA with a limited track record? (and just to correct you, Brady was a 6th rounder)

Oh wait...there's not one. OK.

Perception is reality in the NFL. That's how the Browns fleeced Indy for a 1st for Richardson. Until a young guy accomplishes something, he is largely defined by his draft value. High draft picks who don't perform at all and get cut in their first 2 years always catch on because it is accepted they are talented and the new organization thinks they are smarter than the old one and can get performance out of them.

Keenum has a limited track record of slightly above average QB play with an 0-4 record as a starter. He was passed on 7 times by every team in the league less than 2 years ago. Look at it this way. If Keenum is cut loose by the Texans this offseason do you think that an NFL team will give him a starting job. I mean pay him low starter money and enter training camp with him as their #1 QB? If not, why would a new coach who has no ties to him.

A new coach will want a QB of his own. There are only a few situations where a new coach doesn't get a new QB..

1) When he is hired to coach a contender with a star QB in place,
2) When he is hired on the strength of his ability to turn around a struggling QB who is thought to be "talented",
3) When the team is judged so bad and the QB class so weak that a team decides to fix something else first and stink for a year before getting a QB the following year.
4) Or when too much is invested (financially or in draft pick spent) in the current QB to replace him just yet.

The Texans don't really fall in any of those categories. So we would need a never happened before situation where some new coach bet his career on a 3rd stringer who put together an average stretch of QB play for a team that was crashing and losing all of their games. Now if he reels off 6 wins in a row while actually scoring points in the 2nd half it is a different discussion, but it is almost certainly Kubiak as his head coach in that scenario. Basically if he wins enough to be a real consideration as the Franchise's long term QB, than he probably saves Kubiak's job. If he doesn't, no way does a new guy keep him.