The upcoming Bye Week thread, 10/27/2013

[Arky]

Welcome to the longest 2 weeks of the football season.....

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Texans will play the Colts on SNF their next game so there will be a little extra waiting....

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Win against the Colts and go to 3-5 (2-0 in the division) and the Texans are still in it. Lose and any hope of playoff chances go microscopic....

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Can't believe I'm saying this but it was nice to hear announcers Jim Nantz and Phil Simms say some nice things about the Texans in the Chiefs game. Even though they lost, the Texans didn't embarrass themselves for a change...... Nantz/Simms were genuinely into the game and you could hear excitement in their voices at times. Simms, who I've knocked before in the past, was particularly encouraging of the Texans and Keenum's effort......

[Arky]

Houston viewing this Sunday:

CBS early: Buffalo @ New Orleans, Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf

FOX early: Dallas @ Detroit, Dick Stockton, Brian Billick

FOX late: Washington @ Denver, Thom Brennaman, Troy Aikman

[BigBull]

Originally Posted by Arky

Win against the Colts and go to 3-5 (2-0 in the division) and the Texans are still in it. Lose and any hope of playoff chances go microscopic....

Being an old Oilers fan though I remember in the late 80s or early 90s when the Oilers went undefeated in division play but still finished one game behind the Stealers in overall record and missed the playoffs. Also I think to get a wildcard they need to go 8-1 over the final 9 games and I don't see them beating the Broncos, Pats, and the Colts twice. I think the best we can hope for is a 7-2 record over the last 9, but I think they will go 5-4 or 4-5. I hope I'm wrong though.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by BigBull

Being an old Oilers fan though I remember in the late 80s or early 90s when the Oilers went undefeated in division play but still finished one game behind the Stealers in overall record and missed the playoffs. Also I think to get a wildcard they need to go 8-1 over the final 9 games and I don't see them beating the Broncos, Pats, and the Colts twice. I think the best we can hope for is a 7-2 record over the last 9, but I think they will go 5-4 or 4-5. I hope I'm wrong though.

Ya, I think I remember that season with the Oilers. What'd they go, something like 10-4 (14 game seasons back then) and missed the playoffs?

The thing about division wins is you get the tiebreak in the tie scenarios and for a team that is behind in the standings (like the Texans), you can make major leaps in the head-to-head competitions..... Colts currently have a 3 game lead but if we were able to beat them twice, that lead becomes only one game.....

It's grim but I'm in the "it's not over till it's over" school. Until they're mathematically eliminated, there is some hope....... And even if/when they become mathematically eliminated, the Texans will try to win as many as they can - it's what they've always done. Tanking just to get a higher draft pick is not their way.....

[HPF Bob]

The Raiders swept the AFC West recently and failed to make the playoffs because they lost most of their other games.

[Keith]

The loss of Cushing is gutting. Any late season runs towards the playoffs may have been possible if the team was healthy, but without Cushing and no viable replacement, I don't see it. So much for learning from last season.

Shame since the Colts offense took a major hit in losing Reggie Wayne. His stats aren't too gaudy (38-503-2 thru seven games), but he was clearly their top WR. I don't see T.Y. Hilton or Darrius Heyward-Bey as being able to step up as the WR1 in that offense, though both are talented receivers. Coby Fleener is a young TE who has been inconsistent, and the trade for RB Trent Richardson hasn't been the boon to the running game most expected (3.0 YPC and 46 YPG since the trade).

[cadams]

Originally Posted by BigBull

Being an old Oilers fan though I remember in the late 80s or early 90s when the Oilers went undefeated in division play but still finished one game behind the Stealers in overall record and missed the playoffs. Also I think to get a wildcard they need to go 8-1 over the final 9 games and I don't see them beating the Broncos, Pats, and the Colts twice. I think the best we can hope for is a 7-2 record over the last 9, but I think they will go 5-4 or 4-5. I hope I'm wrong though.

looking at the remaining schedule, only four games i see that they should win (jags twice, arizona, and the raiders), and i am not confident they win all those. i can see a 5 or 6 win season easily right now, and honestly, i think that would be the best thing for the team long term. (think qb in the first round)

[Warren]

Originally Posted by Keith

The loss of Cushing is gutting. Any late season runs towards the playoffs may have been possible if the team was healthy, but without Cushing and no viable replacement, I don't see it. So much for learning from last season.

Yep, check out Pro Football Focus' run stop percentage stat:

PFF’s Signature Stat Run Stop Percentage (RSP) tries to take away [the limitations of raw tackle stats] by recording only valuable tackles as stops and then taking those as a percentage of how many run snaps were played. What we define as a valuable tackle, or a stop, is any tackle that prevents the offense from gaining 40% of the required yardage on first down, 60% on second down, and 100% on third or fourth down.

Cushing is second in the NFL with a run stop percentage of 18.1%. Sharpton is 47th (third from the bottom of those listed) with 5%.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by cadams

looking at the remaining schedule, only four games i see that they should win (jags twice, arizona, and the raiders), and i am not confident they win all those. i can see a 5 or 6 win season easily right now, and honestly, i think that would be the best thing for the team long term. (think qb in the first round)

Yea, see I'm puzzled why some are still placing "Texans" & "Playoffs" in the same sentence re the current season ? If that ship hadn't already sailed before our 5th loss of the year in KC Sunday, just trust me, it's long gone by now.

[WMH]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

Yea, see I'm puzzled why some are still placing "Texans" & "Playoffs" in the same sentence re the current season ? If that ship hadn't already sailed before our 5th loss of the year in KC Sunday, just trust me, it's long gone by now.

Without using my Battle Red glasses I could see a 9-7 team getting the 2nd WC spot.

Denver or KC (more likely) will get the #1 WC spot.

There's a whole host of teams in the 2-4 win category that could get there @ 9-7.

I see a pulse, its pretty damn faint, but there's a shot. In order to do that, we'd have to beat the teams we are supposed to beat (5), which we've only done 2 out of 4, split with Indy (1), and steal one from NE or Den (1), who could be resting as early as week 16. That's the recipe for 9.

That "could" happen.

Will it? Unlikely, but there's still a glimmer of chance.....

If one of these other teams gets on a run to 10 games, we are pretty much toast, as I don't see even a remote chance of being better than 6-2 over the next 8.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

Yea, see I'm puzzled why some are still placing "Texans" & "Playoffs" in the same sentence re the current season ? If that ship hadn't already sailed before our 5th loss of the year in KC Sunday, just trust me, it's long gone by now.

^^^^There are no more pessimists left in the world. They call themselves "realists"....

Nunusguy, did you not write this last week?:

so the Arrowhead crowd gets 3 more hours of beer guzzling before Case Keenum takes the first snap of his life in a regular season NFL game, so it's gonna be loud and wild and crazy in Arrowhead today. Oh BTW, the Chiefs are unbeaten and feature one of the NFLs best defenses, so sorry but if you think Keenums got a chance in this game then you must be a U of H alum. On the other hand, what the hell, the Texans opportunity for a playoff berth this year is all but nonexistent at this point so what's the downside with playing him

Sounds like you had already given up on the season after 4 losses. And young Mr Keenum did better than you expected, eh? Seems he had them in the game until the bitter end..... So, forgive me but my outlook differs greatly from yours....

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by Arky

Nunusguy, did you not write this last week?:



Sounds like you had already given up on the season after 4 losses. And young Mr Keenum did better than you expected, eh? Seems he had them in the game until the bitter end..... So, forgive me but my outlook differs greatly from yours....

I plead guilty as charged. I certainly did make that comment, and I'm still very surprised by Keenums performance as he did far better than anybody could have realistically expected him to do under the circumstances. I wouldn't have thought he'd do that well at home in Reliant vs somebody like the Jags if it was his first NFL regular season game, so his performance on the road in Arrowhead vs one of the NFLs mightiest defenses was truly remarkable and I give him mucho kudos. And truth is we really should have won that game just as we should have won the Seattle game.
But we didn't and Indy beat Manning & the Broncos over the weekend to put us another full game out of the AFC South lead so now our only realistic path to the playoffs would seem to be as a WC and if you can see us getting there with 5 losses already in the "L" column then you far more of an optimist than I can possibly be.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

I plead guilty as charged. I certainly did make that comment, and I'm still very surprised by Keenums performance as he did far better than anybody could have realistically expected him to do under the circumstances. I wouldn't have thought he'd do that well at home in Reliant vs somebody like the Jags if it was his first NFL regular season game, so his performance on the road in Arrowhead vs one of the NFLs mightiest defenses was truly remarkable and I give him mucho kudos. And truth is we really should have won that game just as we should have won the Seattle game.
But we didn't and Indy beat Manning & the Broncos over the weekend to put us another full game out of the AFC South lead so now our only realistic path to the playoffs would seem to be as a WC and if you can see us getting there with 5 losses already in the "L" column then you far more of an optimist than I can possibly be.

Well, it's not so much optimism as it is believing. A player that thinks it's over/it's impossible/it can't be done, well, I wouldn't want that player on my team, would you? Because if you're a player and think it's over, it will become fact. A player should be thinking if he goes out and does his job, he can help his team win every game. And goodness, there's still 9 games left....

Most everyone that has posted in this thread is admitting that things are grim. You will probably be proven correct but slim odds as they may be, it really is not over yet. For me, Keenum brings a new hope that wasn't there last week.... Last year, RG3 led the Skins from 3-6 to 10-6 (seven W's in a row) beating Philly and Dallas twice, the Giants and eventual SB champ Ravens along the way....

Texans need to go back to the 1-0 each week philosophy.....

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by Arky

Well, it's not so much optimism as it is believing. A player that thinks it's over/it's impossible/it can't be done, well, I wouldn't want that player on my team, would you? Because if you're a player and think it's over, it will become fact. A player should be thinking if he goes out and does his job, he can help his team win every game. And goodness, there's still 9 games left....

Most everyone that has posted in this thread is admitting that things are grim. You will probably be proven correct but slim odds as they may be, it really is not over yet. For me, Keenum brings a new hope that wasn't there last week.... Last year, RG3 led the Skins from 3-6 to 10-6 (seven W's in a row) beating Philly and Dallas twice, the Giants and eventual SB champ Ravens along the way....

Texans need to go back to the 1-0 each week philosophy.....

Totally agree with your thoughts about what the attitude of the players should be, though I was speaking more from the perspective of a fan.
But I give you high-5s for being a believer, I can only HOPE you are right.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

Totally agree with your thoughts about what the attitude of the players should be, though I was speaking more from the perspective of a fan.
But I give you high-5s for being a believer, I can only HOPE you are right.

Eh, I guess I just don't get the defeatist attitude of a certain faction of our fanbase when a little adversity hits. Like the Iraqi army, they come running out of the trenches, arms straight up in the air waving white flags.....

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by Arky

Eh, I guess I just don't get the defeatist attitude of a certain faction of our fanbase when a little adversity hits. Like the Iraqi army, they come running out of the trenches, arms straight up in the air waving white flags.....

OK since you put it that way, then let me put it to you this way: if you were placing a bet with your hard-earned money on the remainder of the Texans' season, would you put those bucks on the Texans making or not making the POs ? Right, just what I thought ! See there's a big difference in what we expect will happen and what we hope will happen.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

OK since you put it that way, then let me put it to you this way: if you were placing a bet with your hard-earned money on the remainder of the Texans' season, would you put those bucks on the Texans making or not making the POs ? Right, just what I thought ! See there's a big difference in what we expect will happen and what we hope will happen.

What are the odds? 100 to 1? I'd put a $1 on the Texans.....

Did you see Solomon's article at Chron.com? He discusses the playoff chances:

Even with where the Texans are, a playoff season is possible. The website makenflplayoffs.com puts their chances at achieving that goal at 12.4 percent....................

Should the Texans go 9-0 the rest of the way, they would be a virtual lock to claim a playoff spot. Even if they lost only one game, they would have better than a 99 percent chance of qualifying for the postseason.

Two losses, and their mathematical chance drops to 84 percent.

Three losses? Forget about it.

[popanot]

Originally Posted by Keith

The loss of Cushing is gutting. Any late season runs towards the playoffs may have been possible if the team was healthy, but without Cushing and no viable replacement, I don't see it. So much for learning from last season.

Not that this is the answer. Just thought your post was a good lead-in...

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TEXANS TO SIGN TAVARAS GOODEN(RotoWire)Gooden is expected to sign with Houston, My Fox Houston reports.

Analysis: The Texans are looking for some depth at linebacker after losing Brian Cushing (knee) and waiving Tim Dobbins. Gooden and Jeff Tarpinian are expected to join the Texans for this week's preparation for Indianapolis.
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I'm actually surprised they're not raiding other teams PS's by now.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by Arky

What are the odds? 100 to 1? I'd put a $1 on the Texans.....

Did you see Solomon's article at Chron.com? He discusses the playoff chances:

Arky, you just made my point for me because you might as well have said you'd put one cent on the Texans. In other words you have so little confidence they get into post-season you want to minimize your risk in any bet that they will do so to practically zero.
Hey man, I'm with you on the hope thing but it's just not the same as my realistic expectations for the team over the remainder of the season.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

Arky, you just made my point for me because you might as well have said you'd put one cent on the Texans. In other words you have so little confidence they get into post-season you want to minimize your risk in any bet that they will do so to practically zero.
Hey man, I'm with you on the hope thing but it's just not the same as my realistic expectations for the team over the remainder of the season.

Ah, you're one of those you-just-made-my-point-for-me guys. No, betting a $1 on 100 to 1 odds would be a decent value bet. Lose a $1 or win $100. I would take that bet if I knew Keenum was going to be the starting QB the rest of the season. Schaub, not so much. Cushing out is not good.

The point is and what started this whole spiel is people are going to be "using Texans and playoffs in the same sentence" until the Texans are no longer mathematically eligible. So, get used to it....