Draw A Line [AFC Playoff Seed Musings]

[Keith]

So the Texans just missed clinching a wild card spot this weekend, but doing so next Sunday is very likely.

A Texans win over the Titans, and I believe they not only clinch a wild card spot, but they will have clinched no worse than the #5 seed.

Even if the Texans lose, a Dolphins loss (against the Patriots) clinches the #6 seed. Or, the combo of both the Bengals and Steelers losing gives them at least the #6 seed as well. If all four teams lose (Texans, Dolphins, Bengals, and Steelers), then the Texans are the #5.

They cannot yet clinch the division in Week 13 as the Colts are still too close with both head-to-head games to play.

ok... scenarios aside, the team seems likely to get one of the top 2 seeds with the big Week 14 match in New England pending. The likely AFC wild cards seem weak this season (aside from an interesting Denver-Indy matchup), so the Texans seem likely to host Denver or Baltimore in the divisional round then possibly the Pats for the AFC championship.

Based on how the pass D has looked the last two games, a shootout against Tom Brady seems daunting, but legit talk about deep AFC playoff matchups in late November is refreshing around here.

[popanot]

Looks like "Next Man Up" applies to the D this year. Hopefully Wade and crew can find the right recipe of players and dial up the right schemes to keep the W's coming. I think we should be good if we can get two more AFC wins out of the remaining games. Sure would've been nice had the Chargers taken care of business and beat the Ravens yesterday.

[HPF Bob]

Here's what worries me:

According to the calculator, if the Texans split with the Colts and lose to the Patriots while the Ravens beat Denver at home and the other games over the final five weeks follow to form (team with higher winning pct. wins game or home team wins games among teams with the same record), then the playoff standings look like this:

1. Baltimore 14-2
2. New England 13-3*
3. Houston 13-3
4. Denver 12-4
5. Indianapolis 11-5
6. Pittsburgh 10-6

* - owns tie-breaker with head-to-head win.
which means a home game against the Steelers and their refs followed by a return trip to icy Foxboro and an AFC championship game in Baltimore if we survive that. Now, if we manage to sweep the Colts and everything else in my scenario remains the same, we would hold onto the #1 seed even if we lose to New England but beating a good team twice in three weeks is a tall order.

[WMH]

I don't see Bmore winning out.
Thier remaining schedule is brutal:
13 Sun, Dec 2 vs Pittsburgh 4:25 PM CBS
14 Sun, Dec 9 @Washington 1:00 PM CBS
15 Sun, Dec 16 vs Denver 1:00 PM CBS
16 Sun, Dec 23 vs New York (G) 1:00 PM FOX
17 Sun, Dec 30 @Cincinnati 1:00 PM CBS

In all honesty, I can see them dropping 2 or even 3 of those games.

Just my opinion, but I believe the top 2 will come from HOU, NE or DEN, in that order.

Denvers remaining schedule:
13 Sun, Dec 2 vs Tampa Bay 4:05 PM FOX
14 Thu, Dec 6 @Oakland 8:20 PM NFL
15 Sun, Dec 16 @Baltimore 1:00 PM CBS
16 Sun, Dec 23 vs Cleveland 4:05 PM CBS
17 Sun, Dec 30 vs Kansas City 4:25 PM CBS

2 "potential" L's - Tampa, who's been playing pretty well, and @Bmore.

NE's remaining schedule:
13 Sun, Dec 2 @Miami 1:00 PM CBS
14 Mon, Dec 10 vs Houston 8:30 PM
15 Sun, Dec 16 vs San Francisco 8:20 PM NBC
16 Sun, Dec 23 @Jacksonville 1:00 PM CBS
17 Sun, Dec 30 vs Miami 1:00 PM CBS

2 "potential" L's - Houston, , and San Fran.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

Here's what worries me:

According to the calculator, if the Texans split with the Colts and lose to the Patriots while the Ravens beat Denver at home and the other games over the final five weeks follow to form (team with higher winning pct. wins game or home team wins games among teams with the same record), then the playoff standings look like this:

1. Baltimore 14-2
2. New England 13-3*
3. Houston 13-3
4. Denver 12-4
5. Indianapolis 11-5
6. Pittsburgh 10-6

* - owns tie-breaker with head-to-head win.
which means a home game against the Steelers and their refs followed by a return trip to icy Foxboro and an AFC championship game in Baltimore if we survive that. Now, if we manage to sweep the Colts and everything else in my scenario remains the same, we would hold onto the #1 seed even if we lose to New England but beating a good team twice in three weeks is a tall order.

So what you're saying is that if we lose two games and Baltimore and NE go undefeated it would be bad for us?

[HPF Bob]

Originally Posted by barrett

So what you're saying is that if we lose two games and Baltimore and NE go undefeated it would be bad for us?

If it is the wrong two games, yes. If we can sweep the Colts (and Titans and Vikings), losing to New England won't matter but two losses probably kicks us down to third and playing two road games to reach the Super Bowl.

I know you are trying to be sarcastic but I'm looking at what I believe is a very real possibility.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

If it is the wrong two games, yes. If we can sweep the Colts (and Titans and Vikings), losing to New England won't matter but two losses probably kicks us down to third and playing two road games to reach the Super Bowl.

I know you are trying to be sarcastic but I'm looking at what I believe is a very real possibility.

Define realistic. What you are looking at is worst case scenario. You have given every other team all wins (unless they play each other). You say this is due to simply going with the team with the best winning percentage, but if you did that with us we finish 15-1.

You have handpicked us losses and made everyone else unbeatable, and then acted like it is a revelation that us blowing games and other teams being unbeatable does not work out for us in the end.

[cadams]

Originally Posted by barrett

Define realistic. What you are looking at is worst case scenario. You have given every other team all wins (unless they play each other). You say this is due to simply going with the team with the best winning percentage, but if you did that with us we finish 15-1.

You have handpicked us losses and made everyone else unbeatable, and then acted like it is a revelation that us blowing games and other teams being unbeatable does not work out for us in the end.

gotta agree here. i do think the texans drop at least one game, if not two before the end of the season, but i think you have to say that either the pats or ravens (if not both) probably lose a game as well.

baltimore is not good enough to win out. they have played terribly on the road this year and should have lost yesterday to san diego

[HPF Bob]

Question:

How many games have the Broncos, Ravens and Patriots lost the last four weeks?

Answer: none. We went 4-0 in November and didn't gain any ground on anyone. Thinking those teams can continue to play above the rest of the AFC is not unrealistic at all.

If the Patriots played Houston in Houston, I'd feel better about the Texans perhaps winning it. If the Ravens played Denver in Denver, I could see the Broncos winning that. But the fact that those key games (and SF at NE) are in Foxboro and Baltimore, means the home team probably wins in cold weather.

The Ravens are a much better team at home. Just look up the scores. If Big Ben doesn't play against the Ravens, Baltimore wins that too.

BTW, worst case scenario is if Schaub and Foster get hurt and we limp in at 10-6.

[cadams]

actually, worst case scenario is that some terrible illness infects every player on the team and the texans have to forefit the rest of their games and forego the playoffs. now, all kidding aside. i don't think your scenario is necessarily completely unrealistic, but using the premise that new england and balt will win all the games where they are the team with the better record, and then assuming that houston will lose at least two games where they have the better record seems a bit of a pesimistic point of view.

[WMH]

Originally Posted by cadams

actually, worst case scenario is that some terrible illness infects every player on the team and the texans have to forefit the rest of their games and forego the playoffs. now, all kidding aside. i don't think your scenario is necessarily completely unrealistic, but using the premise that new england and balt will win all the games where they are the team with the better record, and then assuming that houston will lose at least two games where they have the better record seems a bit of a pesimistic point of view.

Its the Houston Pro Football Illness. People catch it every now and then, and if you don't watch it, it can be contagious. Thankfully, it usually doesn't last more than 6 days, at least it hasn't this year.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by cadams

actually, worst case scenario is that some terrible illness infects every player on the team and the texans have to forefit the rest of their games and forego the playoffs. now, all kidding aside. i don't think your scenario is necessarily completely unrealistic, but using the premise that new england and balt will win all the games where they are the team with the better record, and then assuming that houston will lose at least two games where they have the better record seems a bit of a pesimistic point of view.

There you have it. A perfect explanation for why everything will break against us.

Of course you could spin it all the opposite way if you felt like it. Baltimore and NE didn't lose in November but made up no ground...

How about a simple question. What kind of odds would you need to place money on both those teams going undefeated the rest of the way?

[barrett]

I meant to quote Bob there.

[Arky]

I know one thing: MNF matchup of Texans vs. Pats two games from now is already being discussed/anticipated as the NFL Game of the Year in one of the (national) sports betting forums I peruse. Would not surprise me if the Pats are a small favorite in this one.... I'm just hoping the Texans will be healthy enough to acquit themselves well..... But right now, a W at Tennessee is just as important...

[cadams]

on the pats, i wouldn't count out miami from steeling a win from them in one of their two remaining games either.

[chuck]

Let's face it, we're going to find out which are the truly elite teams down this stretch. Each of the four teams we're discussing will have ample opportunity to make its case.

[WMH]

Scratch Bmore from the list. Its now a 3 horse race.

Thank you Charlie Batch?
Wow......

[Arky]

Originally Posted by WMH

Scratch Bmore from the list. Its now a 3 horse race.

Thank you Charlie Batch?
Wow......

Yep. It now looks like this:

Houston 11-1
New England 9-3
Baltimore 9-3
Denver 9-3
Indianapolis 8-4
Cincinnati 7-5
Pittsburgh 7-5

We got a 2 game lead on everyone else. Cincy and Pittsburgh - only one of those two advances. We've beaten 2 of 3 of our closest competitors and face the third (New England) on Monday night. Should be a real rip snorter....

[WMH]

Nick Scurfield (@NickScurfield) tweeted:
#Texans would clinch the top seed in the AFC next week if they win & BAL (at WAS), DEN (at OAK) & IND (vs TEN) all lose

[Keith]

Originally Posted by WMH

Nick Scurfield (@NickScurfield) tweeted:
#Texans would clinch the top seed in the AFC next week if they win & BAL (at WAS), DEN (at OAK) & IND (vs TEN) all lose

Amazing, though unlikely.

Amazing to do it this early then go more than a month before participating in another meaningful game.

Unlikely because the Raiders and Titans aren't beating anybody.