Texans at the halfway mark

[Arky]

Here we are half way through the schedule and the Texans have a compiled a 5-3 record. In the prediction thread, I had hoped for 4-4 or better and they've done that. Still, it could've been better if not for that pesky Oakland game.

Also, in the prediction thread, I mentioned I thought the Texans might be able to win 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. I'm ready to revise that to I hope they win 5 or better given the next 8 games. Let's have a look:

Week 9: Cleveland, home game. They're the Jags with a little better offense. Top ten defense. Should be a W if the Texans don't have too many blunders.

Week 10: Tampa Bay, away game. I suspect Tampa will be small favorite but hopefully AJ is back by then. Could go either way.

Week 11: Bye

Week 12: Jacksonville, away game. Probably will be a tougher game than the first meeting. Hopin' for a W here.

Week 13: Atlanta. The good news is it's a home game. This is going to be a tough one and will tell us more about which direction the Texans are heading.

Week 14: Cincinnati, away game. All of a sudden this doesn't look easy anymore. The Bengals defense is top 5 (currently) and Andy Dalton gets better every week.

Week 15: Carolina, home game. While Cam Newton is fun to watch, we should hope the Texan defense is in his face all day....

Week 16: Indianapolis, away game. Will be Peyton be back? It won't be an easy game if Peyton is playing...

Week 17: Tennessee, home game. Something tells me we're probably going to need a W here...

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Current stats:

Texan offense: 395.2 yds/game (6th), 25.8 pts/game (8th)

Texan defense: 286.8 yds/game (3rd), 18.1 pts/game (5th)

I think it is safe to say this is unprecedented in Texan stat history. The Texan defense is arguably better than the offense at this point in time and should get better barring injury...

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Foster (532, 3.9 ypc) and Tate (508, 5.2 ypc) are on pace for 1,000 yards each.

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Matt Schaub is on pace for 4,236 yard, 26 TD's, 10 INT's.

[nunusguy]

There's still a lot of uncertainly about those remaing games for me, so I guess I remain unconvinced ? The good news is I think it's entirely possible
8-8 wins this division and we are certainly in the "drivers seat" when it comes to winning the division.

[barrett]

5-3 is pretty good considering we have not had a single game of healthy AJ and Foster at once.

The defense has been great. In today's NFL you are going to give up yards to good teams, but they have allowed us to be in every game we've played.

The DL started fast but has tailed a bit lately. Smith especially was a terror early but has not been as produtive the last 3 games. And he has amped up his offsides penalties as well. But he has still played at a probowl level for a 34 DE. Watt has been very good. I saw a stat that Cody only plays like 34% of the snaps and it makes me less concerned about replacing him. Today's NFL is a passing league and very few teams are built to take advantage of a team that gives up too many 4-6 yard runs. The patience simply isn't there. Especially when the opponent know we are going to score.

Our LBs have been great. Cushing is the MVP of the whole team right now. The guy is almost illegal on like half the plays in every game. A little late here. A little out of bounds here. A little forearm to the helmet there. A little to the sliding QB's ribs here. He just plays mean. And somehow he never gets whistled. In addition to his fantastic play against the run, the pass, and blitzing, he gives us such a physical and intimidating presence. It sets a tone for our whole defense. Mario was great before the injury, as Wade was able to simply point him at the QB and tell him to go, and then scheme the rest of the guys to keep Mario from always being double teamed. Barwin has been solid and seems more natural as a LB than he ever did as a DE. Reed is verry fast. His sack yesterday was the result of that. And you can't coach speed. Demeco has not been very good, but he only plays about a third of the snaps like Cody, so it is not as concerning as it would be. And Sharpton had been good before the injury.

In the secondary, Joseph is far better than I realized or suspected. He has great ball skills. He is big. He hits. He covers. And he is young. Huge free agency score. Our safety play was actually a strength after a decade of futility (Matt Stevens/everyone last year). Quinn is a natural there. And Manning was good. And I like that they are basically interchangeable. It let us do a lot scheme wise. Nolan also looks good. Even Demps had a very nice breakup yesterday. Only Keo has looked bad. Kareem Jackson continues to play poorly, but I guess that is better than the terrible play of last year. Either way I thought good coaching would benefit him, but it looks like he just doesn't have much talent. A total whiff by our scouting department. Jason Allen is playing better and better. And McCain has actually been very good as a slot/nickel CB. I would love to see brandon Harris considering we traded up into the 2nd round to get him, but I would love to see him at the expense of KJ, not at the expense of Allen or McCain. And that is not going to happen unfortunately.

[HPF Bob]

I said 8-8 before the season but I'm confident they will have a winning record and will secure their first playoff spot as long as Schaub doesn't go down to injury.

However, there is always something about the Texans that makes them less than they appear. Even in yesterday's game, they made two major blunders that turned a 24-0 blowout into a 24-14 struggle.

I predict a first-round exit come playoff time.

Of the remaining games on the schedule, I think all but Atlanta are winnable but all, except ironically the Colts, are losable if they don't play well.

[JW295]

With the Texans in 1st place in the division, they should easily make the playoffs. I never thought that Manning's absence would strongly affect the entire AFC landscape.

[WMH]

Yep, the D has set the tone the first half of the year, and with the exception of one really bad quarter against the Saints have been pretty damn impressive, bordering on outstanding.

If we can keep from losing anymore guys, especially on D, I think we should have enough mojo to reach the playoffs, and if the O can get back to full force and start clicking, we might actually make a game of it when we get there.

The schedule ahead is less than imposing.
W - Cleveland sucks
W - Tampa Bay might be more erratic than we are.
W - We know who the Hags are, tough D ridiculously bad O. We will have AJ back, so I don't see this game being as competitive as yesterdays.
L - Atlanta is going to be tough, especially since they have 2 #1 WR's. Hopefully we can get a good rush on Ryans. Could be a flex spot for a little SNF for this one, especially if we get on a 5 game streak.
W - I see Cincy fading shortly. Rookie QB's seldom hold up the whole season in year 1. Thier D is pretty impressive though.
W - Newton might be an exception to the above. He is downright impressive. This one could be close, but I'm glad its at home.
W - I look for TN to implode prior to Week 17, and we could see Locker by the time this rolls around.

We might have another stinker in there somewhere, definitely a possibility, but I am so impressed with the D these days, it should set up for something fun in January. 10 wins is realistic, 11 should have a good shot, and 12 is not out of the question.

Kool-Aid gents - DRINK IT UP!

[barrett]

I would not pick Atlanta against us. Like Tampa (and us) they have been very inconsistent. Matt Ryan is not having a very good year, and their defense has been very vulnerable through the air.

I think we have 8 very winnable games. I would even call us a favorite in all of them providing AJ is full strength after the bye. Unfortunately, almost any of them could be lost as well.

Not to mention any of these games could look completely different a few weeks from now. If we played Oakland today with no QB we roll, next month with AJ we roll whoever they play at QB. So much of it depends on timing. Jacksonville could be fired up for a interim coach by then or could have quit on Del Rio.

With all that said, I will predict double digit wins and a victory this week. I may pick a victory every week after this, but cannot say yet.

[HPF Bob]

If the season ended today, we would be the third seed and hosting a first-round game against the Patriots, who I think would pick them apart.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

If the season ended today, we would be the third seed and hosting a first-round game against the Patriots, who I think would pick them apart.

The Patriots would pick us apart. But they also have no defense. So I would honestly expect us to keep it close. Of course I have little doubt what would happen in a close game between Bellachik/Brady and Kubiak/Schaub.

That is why we need the #2 seed. Our win over Pittsburgh and our remaining schedule make it a realistic goal.

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by barrett

The Patriots would pick us apart. But they also have no defense. So I would honestly expect us to keep it close. Of course I have little doubt what would happen in a close game between Bellachik/Brady and Kubiak/Schaub.

That is why we need the #2 seed. Our win over Pittsburgh and our remaining schedule make it a realistic goal.

This is all well and good, and well thought out I might add. But right now all I am worried about is the next game against Cleveland. They are a better version of Jacksonville and that makes me real nervous.

[cadams]

Originally Posted by painekiller

This is all well and good, and well thought out I might add. But right now all I am worried about is the next game against Cleveland. They are a better version of Jacksonville and that makes me real nervous.

while i am in no way saying that cleveland can't beat the texans, i don't know that i agree with this. they are pretty much the same team, maybe cle is SLIGHTLY better.. cleveland is averaging 15.3 ppg, jax is averaging 12.3 ppg. (jax is dead last, cle is tied for 28th with miami). on defense cle is givign up 20.0 ppg and jax is giving up 20.4.


both teams have good defenses, with not good offenses. so while cleveland could win, they shouldn't, and are basically the same team the texans just played

[NBT]

Originally Posted by painekiller

This is all well and good, and well thought out I might add. But right now all I am worried about is the next game against Cleveland. They are a better version of Jacksonville and that makes me real nervous.

Only thing is we don't play the Browns twice a year, so they are not quite as familiar with our tendencies the way the Jags are. I would say if we go at the Browns the way we did the Jags, and get ahead early, the defense will play stout again. We just need for everyone to hang on to the ball better than they did against the Jags. Two fumbles, two TDs. Otherwise we shut 'em out.

[dadmg]

I'm quite impressed with how we've performed to this point in the year. Our early schedule had a really rough patch that had me worried from the moment it was announced in the preseason and we battled through most of it without Andre and a good portion without Mario and are now sitting at 5-3 with a much easier schedule the rest of the way. I'm still quite saddened that we won't have Mario for the playoff run (both for him missing his first shot at the playoffs and for the damper it puts on our chances) but, given the super-short off-season, I wasn't sure if playing this well was going to be possible for us.

This also is an ideal thread to point out that, for the first time in my memory of visiting the site, the Texans are now in the top 5 in Football Outsiders main stat, DVOA a stat that adjusts for strength of opponent. Before this year, we'd usually peak somewhere around 11 or 12 and end up around 14-18 by year's end. This week we move up from 8-5, with the 7th ranked offense, 11th ranked defense and 8th ranked special teams. We've ranked much higher in their offensive ratings before, but not even during Capers best years with Glenn/Sharper/Walker/Payne did our D rank above 15.

[JW295]

Overall, Houston has played well in the first half of the season. I also think they're much better than New England. Just check out the power rankings...

[TheMatrix31]

What's up with you spamming? Ugh.


....I'm cautiously optimistic. Our D is amazing and once we get Andre back, everything will be good offensively.

Wade Phillips has made the world of difference.

[HPF Bob]

I'm reposting this from the "Cowher" thread just because it fits better into the discussion here:

ESPN Playoff Standings

The Texans are currently 6-3 with a 3-0 division record and a 6-2 conference record. Of the seven remaining games:

@ TAM
@ JAX
vs ATL
@ CIN
vs CAR
@ IND
vs TEN

only four are in the conference and three of those are return matches against our own division. Clearly, the game at Cincinnati is the most critical one left on the schedule in terms of playoff seeding if you presume the Texans will win the division (they have a 1-1/2 game lead now with the tiebreaker advantage). Beat Cincy and we have a great chance to be 10-2 in the conference.

There are only four other AFC teams with two or less conference losses. They are (with conf record and their remaining conference games):

Cincinnati (5-1 - vs PIT, @ BAL, vs CLE, @ PIT, vs HOU, vs BAL)
New England (4-2 - @NYJ, vs KC, vs IND, @ DEN, vs MIA, vs BUF)
Baltimore (4-2 - vs CIN, @ CLE, vs IND, @ SD, vs CLE, @ CIN)
Buffalo (3-2 - @ MIA, @ NYJ, vs TEN, @ SD, vs MIA, vs DEN, @ NE)

If we beat Cincy, then the others would have to run the table in their remaining conference games to beat over conference record which is the first tiebreaker after head-to-head (Baltimore beats us on head-to-head).

So, the Texans do have a good possibility to be the #1 seed and go 12-4 as long as their loss is to an NFC team and they sweep their remaining four AFC games. I will say, though, that if New England wins at the Jets this week, they have a very good chance to run the table the rest of the way and be the #1 seed based on a 13-3 record.

[NBT]

It was a helluva game, but the Pats Did Not win.