Statistically Speaking, Is Trading Down A Smart Move?

[dalemurphy]

I confess to having a bias. I have always loved the trade down. While I have always assumed it to be the smarter move, there are two other variables that likely have influenced my preference:

1. I grew up a Cowboys’ fan. After struggling thru the 1980s, the Jerry and Jimmy trade downs in the draft became the stuff of legend and I am likely influenced by the results of those experiences.

2. The draft is fun to watch. And, when you have more picks, it is even more fun. What is even more amazing about the trade down (from an entertainment stand point) is I still get to experience the excitement of the clock until the trade is announced. After that, I am promised at least two more exciting moments all resulting from that one trade. That’s 3 for 1! Way fun.

So, I decided to do some research and try and figure out, from a probability standpoint, whether drafting higher or lower yields more benefits. I wanted to look at the first two rounds. Realizing that the first few picks are either very highly coveted or poisonous due to financial concerns (depending on the year), I focused on the middle of the first round. I looked at the picks between #8 and #20 and compared those to the first 13 picks of round 2 (#33-#45). The Texans pick #11 this year. According to the standard draft chart, the 11th pick of the draft is worth the #33, #34 overall picks, and a 4th round pick. Remember that when we analyze the data. In theory, the Texans could orchestrate a deal/ or combination of deals that would land them two early second round picks and a 4th round pick for their current 1st round selection. But, is that a prudent move? Here are a few variables that should be considered while analyzing the data:

1. There will generally be a slight difference in the quality of team a middle first rounder goes to and an early second round pick goes to. Considering that, perhaps the second round pick that goes to a lesser team is slightly more likely to receive playing time. Also, however, perhaps he is slightly more likely to fail due to being on a poorer team.

2. Where a team drafts likely impacts their philosophy. Certain positions are usually not considered high in the draft: C, and FB for instance. Also, a team may be more inclined to draft the best player on the board with the 8th pick but more inclined to address a need in the second round.

3. The current rookie wage scale would ensure that the 11th pick of the draft would cost far more cap money than the two second round picks and the fourth rounder that could be garnered in our hypothetical deal, thereby enabling more flexibility with the remainder of the roster.

I counted the picks I would consider quality NFL players (starter caliber), those I would consider all-pro level players, and those that were absolute busts and compared the results of round one (picks 8-20) with the results of round two (picks 33-45)

So, here’s what I found (the chart and info is color-coded):

Texans Bull Blog

If you don't want to click the link, here's a quick summary:

odds of a 1st round bust: 32%
odds of a 2nd round bust: 32%

odds of quality player in 1st: 60%
odds of quality player in 2nd: 52%

odds of elite player in 1st: 25%
odds of elite player in 2nd: 15%

[Nconroe]

nice work statistically,

i agree and like the trade down scenario unless some cant miss superstar drops to our draft position.

Likely best to go best player at need first 3 or four rounds.

likely bpa or even high risk/reward in last few rounds,

And Texans have lots of needs especially on defense.

should be only fun we have for a while watching the draft.

[dalemurphy]

Originally Posted by Nconroe

nice work statistically,

i agree and like the trade down scenario unless some cant miss superstar drops to our draft position.

Likely best to go best player at need first 3 or four rounds.

likely bpa or even high risk/reward in last few rounds,

And Texans have lots of needs especially on defense.

should be only fun we have for a while watching the draft.

Think about the M.Schaub trade... we gave up our second round pick in '07 and '08. According to the draft value chart, we could have countered with:

Schaub and 3rd round pick for Texans #8 overall in '07.... and, Atlanta would've jumped all over it!

Instead of Schaub and A. Okoye... We could have Schaub, plus 2 more 2nd round picks and a 3rd round pick. How much better would we be?

[Blitzwood]

Statistically Speaking, Is Trading Down A Smart Move?

For a team like the Texans that is rebuilding and hoping to reach the playoffs, absolutely! This team has needs in so many positions, probably all except TE, RB, and QB. And now we're switching to 3-4, we'll have even more positions to fill.

I think the only time it wouldn't be smart to move down would be for a team like the Packers, Steelers, or Pats, who can afford to draft BPA.

[HPF Bob]

Jones/Johnson figured out the trade down game before anyone else did but don't forget they also used those extra picks to trade back up when they really wanted someone.

The bottom line to me isn't whether you trade up or trade down. The smart teams understand their systems and understand the personnel they need to be great in those systems. They identify the players they want and they move up and down the draft board searching for what they want.

[popanot]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

The smart teams understand their systems and understand the personnel they need to be great in those systems.

And thus the Texans dilemma...

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by dalemurphy

odds of a 1st round bust: 32%
odds of a 2nd round bust: 32%

odds of quality player in 1st: 60%
odds of quality player in 2nd: 52%

odds of elite player in 1st: 25%
odds of elite player in 2nd: 15%

[/I]

Very interesting: 1st round & 2 round downsides are equivalent, but the first round has a higher upside than the second, according to the stats.

[dalemurphy]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

Very interesting: 1st round & 2 round downsides are equivalent, but the first round has a higher upside than the second, according to the stats.

In the article, I broke it down further:

Even among the elite players that I counted, the elite of the elite (if that makes sense), trended heavily towards round one.

However, when you factor in that a 1st round pick is equivalent to 2 second round picks, it also became clearly that dropping into the second round was a much surer way to get at a quality player- With two picks in the 2nd, a team had nearly an 80% chance of hitting on one quality player... much higher probability than the 60% chance with a single round one selection.

[Zac Attack]

Good point. I too am more of a fan of trading down than trading up.

I heard the scenario on Sportradio 610 a few days ago when they were talking about the #2 pick (Von Miller) for This years 1st and 3rd round picks plus next years 1st round pick.

I like the draft season a lot. If the Texans don't have any draft picks, then it would be a boring off season.

But if Von Miller is the real deal, then I say go for it. Mario, Ryans, Cushing, Barwin, Smith, Johnson, should all have pressure on the Offensive Line. So if Von Miller is a super star 95% sure, I say do it....

And this move would tell me that McNair said, playoff or pink slip.

[NBT]

Well, I guess we'll see when the Draft comes around.

[Blitzwood]

" Statistically Speaking, Is Trading Down A Smart Move?"

Ask Bill Belichick ......

[NBT]

If we had a Bill Belichik?