Free Agent Target - Priority #1 - Asomugha’s a FA

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by dalemurphy

If he was great as a rookie, then clearly they accurately identified his talent. When a team goes 6-10, lots of things go wrong. For Cushing, he missed a month of time and did not handle Demeco's absence well. Picking in the middle of the first round in 2009, they selected the ROTY and a player at a need position that has already been to the probowl.. I'm saying that it is hard to argue that was a poor selection. A lot of teams passed on Matthews. Draft grades can't be simply based on selecting the best player in hindsight.

Are you really in total denial about the possibility if not likelihood that his dramatic decline in performance from his rookie year to his second season was because he no longer had the "benefit" of PEDs ?

[dalemurphy]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

Are you really in total denial about the possibility if not likelihood that his dramatic decline in performance from his rookie year to his second season was because he no longer had the "benefit" of PEDs ?

No. My point is that the same rumors were swirling about Matthews, not to mention the evidence that he had ballooned up from 165 lbs. while in college. My guess is that you were celebrating the Cushing pick 12 months ago. I'm not going to be hyper-critical of decisions made two years ago simply because they aren't working out great in this moment. That's what happens when you go 6-10.... lots of decisions look worse than they did when you were 9-7 and improving.

If the question is, "would I rather have Matthews than Cushing based on the information gathered in the 2 years since the draft?" yes. "Could I have a different answer to that question by December of 2011?" yes. "Does the Cushing pick show me that the Texans' can't evaluate talent in the draft?" no. "Does the Kareem Jackson selection and 2010 performance worry me that the Texans struggle to identify and coach defensive talent?" yes. "Is Rick Smith accountable for many of the current Texan talent issues?" yes.

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by dalemurphy

No. My point is that the same rumors were swirling about Matthews, not to mention the evidence that he had ballooned up from 165 lbs. while in college. My guess is that you were celebrating the Cushing pick 12 months ago. I'm not going to be hyper-critical of decisions made two years ago simply because they aren't working out great in this moment. That's what happens when you go 6-10.... lots of decisions look worse than they did when you were 9-7 and improving.

If the question is, "would I rather have Matthews than Cushing based on the information gathered in the 2 years since the draft?" yes. "Could I have a different answer to that question by December of 2011?" yes. "Does the Cushing pick show me that the Texans' can't evaluate talent in the draft?" no. "Does the Kareem Jackson selection and 2010 performance worry me that the Texans struggle to identify and coach defensive talent?" yes. "Is Rick Smith accountable for many of the current Texan talent issues?" yes.

Correto. I was thrilled with the rookie year that Cushing had but really didn't think he could have a PED issue because he was flagged more than any other player in his Draft for that risk and just assumed the Texans would not blow the research on clearing him, especially given their conservative image ?
And since Matthews was a 3-4 guy and we had no idea that we'd go 3-4 in the near future, I really don't think Matthews should have been on our Board.
Re the apparent mistake of taking KJ with the top pick this year, I think that involves different issues than the Cushing selection ?

[Warren]

If McNair is going to take certain types of players off the board due to character, then he needs to open the checkbook for Asomugha. Not only is he an outstanding player at a position of need, but he's everything that McNair could ever want as a representative off the field.

[dalemurphy]

Originally Posted by Warren

If McNair is going to take certain types of players off the board due to character, then he needs to open the checkbook for Asomugha. Not only is he an outstanding player at a position of need, but he's everything that McNair could ever want as a representative off the field.

There was a dark time about 20 years ago when I was a petulant, young Dallas Cowboy fan. Like most Cowboy fans, as soon as a big name player became a FA, I treated it like it was Christmas Eve and the only thing standing between me and my new toy was one night’s sleeep. That was then. Today, I am a Texan fan. I have no such illusions that the premier free agent is destined to come to Houston. For many fans, this reality combined with nine consecutive years without a playoff birth is infuriating to deal with. So, today, fans will be screaming at Bob McNair not to be cheap and to “back up the Brinks truck” and “pay the man what he wants”, etc… Some fans will daydream thinking about the possibility and others will simply use Nnambi Asomugha’s impending free agency as an opportunity to convict Bob McNair for treason against the fan base.

Not only is it very unlikely that Asomugha will become a Texan, I think bidding blindly for the CB is a horrible idea. Clearly, the defense will need to be infused with veteran free agents if the team is truly committed to turning it into a strength next season. However, there are a number of complications and factors (other than any alleged frugality of the owner) involved in the attempted acquisition of Nnambi Asomugha:

1. Salary cap ramifications- Last year’s salary cap was roughly $127 million. The idea of giving any player 10% or more of the team’s salary cap room seems fraught with problems, particularly for players that are so far removed from the line of scrimmage. In other words, an elite DT, for instance, impacts every play and an opposing offense is limited in its ability to avoid that elite player’s impact on the game. Think about his: as great as Asomugha has been, he has not been a member of a team with a winning record. If that is so, what does that say about the ability of one, single player (especially if he is not a Qb) to influence a game and the season? Could he make a team better? Certainly. But, in reality, wouldn’t the 3rd or 4th best CB in a solid free agent year (like this one) combined with a NT and maybe some LB depth do more for the team than a single player, without costing more? Also, if I spend $15 million on one 30 year old CB and he pops his ACL in the week 3, where am I now? But, if I spend that money on three players, lose one to injury, I have still improved my team. This season’s special teams’ performance also highights how important quality depth is. In the second scenario, not only is our defense stronger because we have two free agents ugrading the starting unit, but those players also mean better players will be playing on the special teams’ units.

2. CBA Situation- The lockout begins before the scheduled free agency period begins. Therefore, barring a miracle, the off-season schedule will at least be condensed and modified, even if an agreement is reached well before the season. In a condensed FA scenario, it is highly likely that players will be anxious to sign and teams will be anxious to acquire talent quickly. This scenario will likely lead to overbidding on top-tier FAs but also a buyer’s market for second-tier FAs. In addition, there will likely have been adjustments in the new CBA regarding RFAs, Franchise tags, and even the nature of the salary cap, itself. Given this environment, a level of caution is likely warranted.

3. Nnambi Asomugha is 30 years old. Teams will likely offer him a 5 or 6 year contract approaching $100 million. The closest example I can think of to that deal is SF’s 8 year $80 deal given to Nate Clements (who was about 4 years younger at the time). Check out San Fran’s record since that deal was made.

4. Why would Asomugha come to Houston? This isn’t a criticism of the city nor the team. However, it is a question that every team should look at before signing free agents. Asomugha would not come to Houston because his primary concern is winning championships. He would not come to Houston because of a relationship he has with the Texans’ coaching staff. He would not come to Houston to return home (he’s not from Texas). When everything is stripped away, the primary reason Asomugha would come to Houston would be only because the Texans offered him significantly more than any other franchise. Based on that, my question would be “why were the other 31 organizations unwilling to offer Asomugha what the Texans did?” Beyond that, why didn’t any of the elite organizations offer the best player in free agency an offer competitive with Houston’s? The answer is likely to be that they don’t think the player, at that price, is an effective way to improve their team. Does that mean that the Texans would win fewer game in 2011 with Asomugha than without him? Probably not. However, their decision to sign Asomugha to more money than any other NFL team is willing to, certainly impacts their ability to compete for other FAs as well as retain their own personnel.

Now, you may say to yourself, “that’s the nature of FA. Usually, the highest bidder wins”. While that is true, when there are 150 FAs, most FAs will get no interest from the majority of the NFL. Therefore, with most of the group, you are only competing with 5-10 NFL organizations for their services. If the Texans have the worst secondary in the NFL, a reasonable goal in FA is not to, thru FA, turn the secondary into the best in the NFL. The goal should be to strengthen its weakness by making quality signings. That’s where value in NFL free agency is found. Here are some examples of what I mean:

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[edo783]

OK, There isn't a CBA in place nor is there any idea of what the CAP might be, do any of you honestly think ANY owner is going to jump out and offer a blank check to a player in that situation? As a matter of fact, without a CBA I don't think they can even make any sort of overture to players until there is one.

[WMH]

Originally Posted by edo783

As a matter of fact, without a CBA I don't think they can even make any sort of overture to players until there is one.

Yep, that is correct, IIRC. Can't even chat with him until the new year, which is March 3 or 4, which is also the 1st day of the lockout.....

It's gonna be a crazy time when it ends, teams locking up thier own RFA's, there will be a BOAT load of FA's, draft picks, etc.

Depending on when its all settled, it could be even crazier than we imagine.....