Texans' Current Draft Position: 9-13

[popanot]

Just our luck - and a fitting kick in the @$$ - we'll finished tied with about 5 teams and end up with the last pick amoungst them all.

[Joshua]

Originally Posted by popanot

Just our luck - and a fitting kick in the @$$ - we'll finished tied with about 5 teams and end up with the last pick amoungst them all.

Don't know how it will finish up but as of last week, Cleveland had had the toughest schedule in the league to date so we will probably be picking in front of them if we have the same record.

And I can't believe I just typed a sentence assuming we will have the same record as Cleveland. Wow. They have a rookie 3rd round pick/washed-up Delhomme at QB, a RB nobody wanted, and basically no receivers and will probably have the same or better record than us despite playing a tougher schedule. In just a couple years, Mangini (who I don't even consider to be a good coach) has taken a bunch of castoffs and already made them into a better team than the Texans. But let's just stick to our 43 year plan. As McNair would say, "We're on the right track."

[HPF Bob]

The draft tiebreaker is strength of schedule which hurt the Texans in past years because the AFC South was so strong but it isn't this year. The AFC North is stronger. While this is no sure thing, I am ranking the divisions from weakest to strongest and expecting the SOS to be roughly equivalent.

1. NFC West
2. AFC West
3. AFC South
4. NFC Central
5. NFC East
6. AFC North
7. AFC East
8. NFC South

It actually kicks bad teams in good divisions in the teeth twice - first by forcing them to endure a tough division and secondly by penalizing their draft position by giving them the shaft on draft tiebreakers because of their strength of schedule. I don't agree with the whole SOS tiebreaker (it ought to be the same tiebreakers as determining the playoffs except in reverse) but it often wounds the Texans but not this year.

[painekiller]

I have us picking between 10 and 12 currently. Some depends on the Bears Vikings game tonight, and some depends on how that SOS plays out.

Currently we are not picking in the top 8.

[KJ3]

I bet we end up top 10, maybe 7 or 8. As long as we don't go doing stupid things like....winning games.....the time for that has passed anyway.

Hopefully they don't decide to go with a 16 year old DT again.

[popanot]

They need to bring back Kris Brown and float a few wide-right.

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by KJ3

I bet we end up top 10, maybe 7 or 8. As long as we don't go doing stupid things like....winning games.....the time for that has passed anyway.

Hopefully they don't decide to go with a 16 year old DT again.

We have the Broncos playing us this weekend and the Texans should win that one, rookie QB playing and all that, but the Jags should beat us to end the season.

So right now, sadly my 6-10 prediction is looking good.

[NBT]

Originally Posted by painekiller

So right now, sadly my 6-10 prediction is looking good.

Uhhmmmm........... 5-11. We lose both of the last two games.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by KJ3

I bet we end up top 10, maybe 7 or 8. As long as we don't go doing stupid things like....winning games.....the time for that has passed anyway.

Hopefully they don't decide to go with a 16 year old DT again.

Wow, did you just go two years between posts here? Sooo, whatcha been up to?

[HPF Bob]

Assuming the Vikings lose in Phrigid Philly* on Tuesday, here's the updated projected draft order and their final opponent: (z - clinched #1 pick)

1. Carolina (2-13) z - @ ATL
2. Denver (4-11) vs SD
Cincinnati (4-11) @ BAL
Buffalo (4-11) @ NYJ
5. San Francisco (5-10) vs ARI
Arizona (5-10) @ SF
Detroit (5-10) vs MIN
Minnesota* (5-10) @ DET
Houston (5-10) vs JAX
Dallas (5-10) @ PHI
Cleveland (5-10) vs PIT
12. SEA, WSH, TEN (6-9)

Note that SF-ARI and DET-MIN play each other in Week 17 so one could assume that a loss to Jacksonville will put the Texans in the Top 10 in next spring's draft, probably around #8. I wouldn't count on DEN, CIN or BUF to pull off an upset to get their fifth win.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by Joshua

Don't know how it will finish up but as of last week, Cleveland had had the toughest schedule in the league to date so we will probably be picking in front of them if we have the same record.

And I can't believe I just typed a sentence assuming we will have the same record as Cleveland. Wow. They have a rookie 3rd round pick/washed-up Delhomme at QB, a RB nobody wanted, and basically no receivers and will probably have the same or better record than us despite playing a tougher schedule. In just a couple years, Mangini (who I don't even consider to be a good coach) has taken a bunch of castoffs and already made them into a better team than the Texans. But let's just stick to our 43 year plan. As McNair would say, "We're on the right track."

That's why I want Rob Ryan! Look at how many games the Browns have allowed more than 30 points or how many times they held a team under 20. Then compare that to the "top defenses" in the league that actually have offenses that can score, and win Time of Possession.

[HPF Bob]

With the Texans' season done, the first six picks are set.

1. Carolina (2-14)
2. Denver (4-12)
3. Cincinnati (4-12)
4. Buffalo (4-12)
5. Arizona (5-11)
6. Cleveland (5-11)

Picks 7-14 could all be 6-10 if Seattle loses tonight. As best as I can tell right now, it lines up like this:

7. San Francisco
8. Seattle (if they lose tonight)
9. Washington
10. Dallas
11. Tennessee
12. Houston
13. Detroit
14. Minnesota

So, it seems that win cost us five draft spots.

[dadmg]

This is what GBN and NFL DraftCountdown have, post-Seahawks game:

1 Carolina 2-14 .574
2 Denver 4-12 .516
3 Buffalo 4-12 .578
4 Cincinnati 4-12 .582
5 Arizona 5-11 .465
6 Cleveland 5-11 .570
7 San Francisco 6-10 .488
8 Tennessee 6-10 .508
9 Dallas 6-10 .512
10 Washington 6-10 .516
11 Houston 6-10 .523

[HPF Bob]

That's probably correct. Sucks that Tennessee beat us handily and then snuck past us for a better draft position. That's why I don't like the strength of schedule as the tie-breaker.

IMO, it ought to be the same tie-breaker as for determining playoff seeding except the worst move on instead of the best.

[Arky]

Not to turn this into a prospects thread but Draft Countdown has LB Von Miller at #8 and DT Stephen Paea at #11 and they're only using Seniors. There might still be a shot at Miller at #11....