The Upcoming NE Game

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by Arky

The Texans are now favored by 7.5 to 9 points depending on which sportsbook you go by.... a very strange spread to say the least....

Vegas obviously thinks Belichek will rest his starters for most of the game, which seems like a big assumption to make ?
Often in games like this there's no spread, no book offered since the priority the Pats asssign to winning the game is uncertain.

[Arky]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

Vegas obviously thinks Belichek will rest his starters for most of the game, which seems like a big assumption to make ?
Often in games like this there's no spread, no book offered since the priority the Pats asssign to winning the game is uncertain.

Just guessing but they may be thinking that NE has already clinched and therefore they will have a letdown..... Doesn't mean that NE will be "resting". Brady, et al may play the whole game... they may not play "inspired", though... What's the motive? 3rd seed? Big deal... It's looking like the road to the AFC championship game is going through Indy and San Diego anyway so, 3rd seed may not mean much...

If the oddsmakers wanted to entice the Eastern/New England money into the mix, then they give the Texans the big number.... Frankly, I'd probably have it more like a pick'em game or Texans by two... but 7.5? 9?

There was a time roughly 15-25 years ago when you could really scarf on the last 2 games of the season when teams had already clinched.... Betting the dog against a favored-and-already-clinched team was almost an automatic win. The Jets covering (and winning) against an undefeated Colts team last week is a perfect example. (Just imagine if you had wagered on the Colts - I reckon there are some real unhappy people in Indy with the way *that* unfolded) Nowadays, it is almost like the oddsmakers overcompensate for this situation - thus the crazy spread....

[TheMatrix31]

I'm going to be really pissed off if the Texans win, Baltimore or Denver loses, but the Jets win. Eff the Colts.

[HPF Bob]

People will think Denver will win easily however the Broncos have won only twice in their last nine games (one of which was a thrashing of KC at Arrowhead) but Denver has a 3-0 division record on the road this year and yet 0-2 at home. Wouldn't shock me at all to see them lose, especially if the Chiefs hang around for three quarters. Matt Cassel, in particular, has something to prove.

[nero THE zero]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

People will think Denver will win easily however the Broncos have won only twice in their last nine games (one of which was a thrashing of KC at Arrowhead) but Denver has a 3-0 division record on the road this year and yet 0-2 at home. Wouldn't shock me at all to see them lose, especially if the Chiefs hang around for three quarters. Matt Cassel, in particular, has something to prove.

I agree, Bob. It was my impression that the Denver game was probably our safest bet out of the three. But, I've learned that when my expectations are that much more radically different than Vegas', the fault usually lies within my reasoning rather than their's.

[Big Texas]

I think the biggest issue here is going to be Kubiak vs. Bilichick. Both teams are very similar. The only problem here is that one coach is one of the most winning-est coaches of this decade while the other has shown that he can be completely confused at times.

Kubiak needs to come out with 2-3 different game plans. He also needs to be able to ADJUST at the half. Something he has not done all season. The key to this game is ADJUST, ADJUST, ADJUST.

Also it is sad to say but we have nobody to hold Randy Moss-at the corner or safety. So we definitely cannot have mental lapses by whomever is playing the FS. Whether it be Busing or Barber.

We cannot let a cerebral QB like Brady just sit back and destroy us. We need our probowlers to step up this game.

[HPF Bob]

It should be noted that the Broncos, under Shanahan/Kubiak were one of the toughest teams for Belichick's Patriots to beat over the years, including a playoff game several years ago when the Patriot dynasty was close to cemented.

This defense isn't really up to Belichick's normal standards but I don't think our wounded Texans are up to the ability of the old Broncos to run the ball either.

I have to believe New England is the better team going into this. Like last week in Miami, the Texans have to show up in a playoff mindset and jump to an early lead. That will make Houston more confident and make New England focus on staying healthy for the coming week when it really counts.