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#1
12-16-2009, 12:00 AM
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Playoff possibilities & why Houston should be more optimisitc
I don't necessarily think this entire town is being very optimistic about the current playoff situation and possible scenario. Do we control our own fates anymore right now? No. But I think people are starting to lose sight of what makes the NFL (and hell sports in general) such incredible leagues and that is because anything can happen and anybody can win. We all have seen teams win and stay in their seats at the stadium in hopes that somehow some way things will all fall into place. And whether you guys want to make fun of me or not I think it is very valid to think this can be a very likely scenario this year.
Breaking it all down the current standings and remaining schedules look like this: Overall / Conference Record / Remaining Schedule 5 - Denver: 8-5 / (6-4) / vs. Oak, @ Phi, vs. KC 6 - Jacksonville: 7-6 / (6-3) / vs. Ind, @ NE, @ Cle x- Baltimore: 7-6 / (6-4) / vs. Chi, @ Pit, @ Oak x- Miami: 7-6 / (5-4) / @ Ten, vs. Hou, vs. Pit x- N.Y Jets 7-6 / (5-5) / vs. Atl , @ Ind , vs. Cin x- Pittsburgh 6-7 / (4-6) /vs. GB, vs. Bal, @ Mia x- Tennessee 6-7 / (3-7) / vs. Mia, vs. SD, @ Sea x- Houston 6-7 / (4-6) / @ Stl, @ Mia, vs. NE *- Now something I am not mentioning that is also very important is a game between San Diego and Cincinnati this week. This game is vital because both of these teams play some of the teams that are ahead of us and we need both of these teams to play as many meaningful games as they possibly can. What we need is for Cincinnati to pull off the W because that will leave the 2nd seed and 1st round bye in the balance until the final weeks. If San Diego wins they all but clinch the 2nd seed and 1st round bye. Aside from that if you really break this thing down there are some very possible scenarios: #1) Miami wins every game but loses to us giving us the Wild Card spot via the tie breaker, N.Y Jets go 2-1, Baltimore Ravens go 1-2, and Jacksonville goes 1-2. We win this scenario because Miami swept the N.Y Jets in their division so the Jets automatically get eliminated. #2) We straight up end in a tie with the Pittsburgh Steelers and no other team at 9-7. If this happens we win the tie breaker because of the common games played (minimum of four). Because of their losses to Oakland and Cincinnati. While we split with Tennessee and potentially in this scenario beat Miami. #3) Denver loses out while we win out and either of the 2 scenarios above happen alongside this. #4) All other potential wild card teams just end up 8-8 while we go 9-7. Now I know a lot of this sounds a little far fetched but in all honesty assuming something out of the norm happens I CAN see Jacksonville going 1-2. I can see Miami winning 2 of 3 (the loss being to us. Also quick tid bit we have never lost to Miami in our franchise's existence). I can see the NY Jets either finishing 1-2 or 2-1. More likely for them to go 1-2 if Indy tries to go for undefeated season and Cincy is playing for a 2nd seed and playoff bye. The one team I must admit that can and very likely will ruin this whole thing is Baltimore because yes officially they have the weakest path to get there and Denver because it doesn't take much now for them to clinch. All this being said what I don't understand is by the last week of the season it is VERY likely that we ATLEAST be sitting at the edge of our seats throughout the entire New England game scoreboard watching or EVEN waiting it out after the game to see other scores like Tennessee @ Seattle or Baltimore @ Oakland or Kansas City @ Denver. This possibility in and of itself if it were to come true would be an absolute dream come true for me after seeing where this franchise use to be and where it finally potentially looks to be now and in my opinion should be reason enough to at the very least allow our coach Gary Kubiak to be able to complete his contract and see what we can do with 1 more year under his regime (the next year being a make or break year). BUT and I yes I dare say the unlikely BUT what if our Texans do somehow someway make it as the final seed in the NFL playoffs. Do they not remind you of any team recently? Arizona maybe? Defense showing flashes, running game non existent in the regular season but has the potential of showing up in the playoffs, BIG TIME STAR WR to help carry us there. Aside from that think about the matchups. It is very possible that the #6 Wild Card team will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals. If we were to win that which I believe is very do-able (since the match up is good for us) being the lowest seed we would play the AFC's highest seed the Indianapolis Colts. We have played the Colts very tough this year and it is very difficult to beat the same team 3 times in the same season. And of course if we were to somehow win that we would be playing in the AFC championship against some really good team that would be ridiculously tough to beat but hey at least we could be there with a shot to potentially make the SUPERBOWL right? Look I'm not asking for everybody to just all of a sudden glow with optimism here but honestly isn't this what sports is all about? The UNDERDOGS, the UNLIKELY SCENARIOS, the MOMENTUM. I don't know about the rest of you guys but I will choose to be an optimistic fan until the clock of each and every single game hits 0:00 and our team is completely eliminated. And even then I will say well we can win the Super bowl next year. And no matter what I'm not jumping off the bandwagon of MY TEAM. That's what makes fanhood so fun for me. What do you all say? 
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#3
12-16-2009, 01:40 AM
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#1) Miami wins every game but loses to us giving us the Wild Card spot via the tie breaker, N.Y Jets go 2-1, Baltimore Ravens go 1-2, and Jacksonville goes 1-2. We win this scenario because Miami swept the N.Y Jets in their division so the Jets automatically get eliminated.
....very possible, but what about Pittsburgh and Tennessee?
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#4
12-16-2009, 05:02 AM
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Quote:
However a REALLY crazy scenario which I did not post that can also come true is if the New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, and our Houston Texans all tie at 9-7 which is very possible. If that were to happen we CAN also win this tie breaker assuming the Jets sole loss didn't come to the Atlanta Falcons an NFC team. If their sole loss derives from the Indy or Cincy game even though they have us head to head I believe we still win this tie breaker because of the win-loss percentage in common games amongst the 3 teams combined together. Please don't quote me on that though I'm not 100% sure but more like 90% sure. I believe we have Pittsburgh beat by a good enough margin in common games percentage that it does not matter how the New York Jets do but just as long as one of their losses are to one of the AFC teams remaining on their schedule.
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#5
12-16-2009, 05:16 AM
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The Texans will need to run the table and come out 9-7 to have any chance. I wouldn't expect Denver to lose a playoff berth but there are ways to eclipse the other 7-6 and 6-7 teams with a three-game streak. Another key will be if NE rests their stars the final weekend because they'll have nothing to play for.
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#6
12-16-2009, 08:01 AM
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Texans blow out teams when they play meaningless games like the one against Seattle.... but then they plain blow it when the pressure games suddenly show up. They will probably blow out the Rams this week. Let's see how they do when the pressure starts again vs the Dolphins.
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#8
12-16-2009, 11:28 AM
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Quote:
There are 8 teams on the cusp in the AFC right now, all fighting for wildcard spots and even with the up and down season the Texans are one of them. Before last week we all but assured of having no shot for the playoffs. These scenarios are not stars and planets aligning with some holiday miracles and voodoo magic sprinkled in. All the Texans need to do is take care of the last 3 games and see how the league unfolds. When was the last time the Texans played a game in December they had to win to contiue to have a playoff shot that was not unfeasable?
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#9
12-16-2009, 12:19 PM
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I think the Colts go to FLA tomorrow night and lose to the Jags, thereby effectively ending any long-shot hopes we have for the playoffs, not that those chances were very realistic anyway.
I dunno but think the Colts have just about everything wrapped they can wrap up and I suspect they will limit the amount of time their starters are in the game, plus they've got some legitimately injured players to rest and get well. The Jags on the other hand are still in the thick of the wild-card race and therefor have every motivation to pull out all of the stops and win their remaining games.
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#11
12-16-2009, 03:29 PM
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Quote:
 ----------- It's possible but extremely small odds. Despite what many are saying, the Texans still have a lot to play for. For many, they are in a can't win situation - lose and they are losers, win and they are still losers because they are typical-Texans-winning-when-it-doesn't-matter-yada-yada....
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#12
12-16-2009, 05:07 PM
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i actually think a win by sdg this week would be prefereable under your scenarios. they would still need to win next week against tenn to "clinch" the bye for certain (getting to 12 wins), i think. AND if they clinched in week 16, then nwe would have no reason to win against the texans in week 17 assuming they have clinched the east by then. of course, if cincy rests in week 17, that could be an issue as well.
all this said, if the texans win the next two they should go into week 17 with a chance to make the playoffs. if they don't, they won't. so hopefully they will win the next two, and we can start this discussion up the monday after christmas.
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#14
12-18-2009, 06:37 AM
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I thought Indys unbeaten season would come to an end last night vs the Jags, but that was based largely on my expectation that they wouldn't play their starters the whole game. Anyway they ended up partially resting Freeney and one or two other defensive guys, but as near as I could tell Peyton and the offense went the whole game ?
In what was a tremendous contest if you like offensive games, the Jags lost in the end the way we often do by making a mistake or failing to make a play as much as having Peyton beat you. At any rate, the outcome was a positive for us in our very, very long-shot of having any chances to land in the play-offs.
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#15
12-18-2009, 09:21 AM
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I am already throwing up in my mouth thinking about rooting for the Possum Eaters playing the Dolphins this weekend, but we need a Miami Loss, along with the Jets and Ravens losing.
If all three happen, then that makes next weeks game against the Dolphins interesting. Scary, but we have never lost to the Dolphins and we have played them 4 times.
__________________
Even though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I fear no evil, for You are with me; Your rod and Your staff, they comfort me. PS 23:4
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#19
12-18-2009, 06:59 PM
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I can't believe you guys hold out hope for the Texans to make the playoffs. Aint gonna happen. They will beat the Seahawks and Rams but what they should beat them. They are really bad. They blew it when they lost 4 straight division games. Calculate all you want but but the answer will still be the same. Texans relaxing at home watching the playoffs on tv. And we will get another year of Kubiak's mediocre football because McNair likes Kubiak just like he did Carr and it clouds his judgement when making the tough decisions.
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#20
12-19-2009, 08:37 AM
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Quote:
 In message boards, dreams come true...until they don't.
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