2015 Salary Cap Considerations

[Keith]

The 2015 cap is currently projected in the neighborhood of $140 million, though the NFLPA seems to think that is a rather conservative estimate. So the Texans ought to have at least $10+ million in cap space as it stands to sign picks and FAs, but they'll need a little more room to at least retain all their current players they want to keep. So, expect a couple moves ahead.

Here are the player situations worth monitoring of guys currently under contract for 2015:

Johnathan Joseph - $8.5M base, entering final year of 5-yr contract. $12.25 on the cap. Something's gotta happen here. Will be 31 when the season starts. Probably not a bad idea to talk to him about an extension. Would provide huge cap relief, and JJo still provides value on gameday.

Andre Johnson - $10.5M base, has two years left on his contract. $16.1 million on the cap. Pay cut is coming. Will be 34 when the season starts. I expect he will be back in 2015.

Arian Foster - $6M base, has two years left. $9M on the cap. Will be 29. I doubt anything changes with his contract before 2016.

Chris Myers - $6M base, entering final year of 4-yr contract. $8M on the cap. Will be 34. Severely doubt he'd be cut. Getting long in the tooth for an extension, too. Maybe the Texans will let him play out his contract. If they're hurting for cap room though, this is an interesting spot for an extension to restructure.

Brian Cushing - $4M base. Has 5 more seasons on his contract. Not going anywhere. Move along.

Garrett Graham - $3M base. Two years left on 3-yr contract. Would save $1.5M if he were to be cut, a definite possibility. Graham didn't see the field much in 2014, and I just think he is not a great fit for this offense even when healthy. Wonder if he could garner a late draft pick from the Ravens.

Ryan Fitzpatrick - $3.25M base. Entering last year of 2-yr deal. Would save the amount of the base on the cap if cut. If Mallett is re-signed, Fitzy is probably gone at some point.

Shane Lechler - $1.75M base. Entering last year of 3-yr deal. Expect no change for 2015.

Whitney Mercilus - $1.43M base. Playing final year of rookie contract in 2015. Might consider extending him just to keep from letting an improving former 1st round pick from hitting the market, especially if Brooks Reed leaves after Mario Williams and Connor Barwin. With Clowney rehab likely not ending before the start of the season, worth watching.

DeAndre Hopkins - Only $2.08M against the cap and under his rookie contract thru 2016 season. Nothing happening for awhile here.

Jared Crick - Entering final season of rookie contract. $758k cap hit. Played well late, took advantage of having DPOY J.J. Watt on the line. I'm not sure how much higher his ceiling is, so let him play out the contract then evaluate.

Brandon Brooks - Entering final season of rookie contract. $857k cap hit. Let him play out his final season then evaluate.

Duane Brown - $9.5M cap figure. Not going anywhere, no change.

Key free agents:
Ryan Mallett - Gotta bring him back at this point. Maybe he plays for a 2- or 3-yr deal along what Fitzy was paid last year? Hopefully in that neighborhood. Can't imagine another team offering him that much, but other teams' evals on the weak 2015 QB draft class could pique interest if Texans let him test free agency.

Kareem Jackson - I've never been a big fan, but his improvement of late makes him worth keeping. I just hope Smith keeps from over-paying him, but I'm sure he will.

Derek Newton - Shocked at his improvement in 2014, albeit in a contract year. Hope he stays. It is a luxury for a young QB, whether it is Mallett, Savage, or ???, to have good tackles like Duane Brown and Newton.

Brooks Reed - If someone else wants to pay him, so be it.

Kendrick Lewis - Quietly solid all season for the secondary. Played under a 1-yr deal, a good gamble on himself. Will be 27. Worth a multi-year deal to bring him back. Just hope the market isn't bonkers for safeties. If it is, the team's pro scouting department has my trust finding someone comparable.

Ryan Pickett - Heck, I'd bring him back for another 1-yr vet min deal if he's game.

Danieal Manning, Akeem Dent, Tim Jamison, plus all of the other RFAs and ERFAs... would have them back and fight for a roster spot.

[nunusguy]

I always thought Myers was part of the reason they drafed the X-man since he could play guard so Ben Jones could be moved to center, his natural and college position. Can't keep everybody and IMO keeping Newt & Brooks is more important for the OLine.

[Nconroe]

And I think Brooks Reed did pretty good this year as well as can play both inside and outside.

[Nconroe]

Current cap calculation shown here
http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/houston-texans/

Shows currently Texans at about 130 m, so if new cap set at 143 Texans have 13 mil or so without cutting anyone.

One thing shows is that this year, JJ is a 21 mil hit which goes down to 12 mil next year, so that helps explain why the cap space is what it is.

And does seem like Andre is going to have to help Texans out atleast some on the cap hit side, he still has a high number for next three years for now.

And Cushing, well, if healthy ok, otherwise, ....

[WMH]

Originally Posted by Nconroe

Current cap calculation shown here
http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/houston-texans/


And does seem like Andre is going to have to help Texans out atleast some on the cap hit side, he still has a high number for next three years for now.

Actually, it appears that Dre has played his last game as a Texan. All good things must come to an end. Hope he latches on to a winner. Will always be a Texan in my eyes.

http://blog.chron.com/ultimatetexans...traded-or-cut/

[chuck]

I don’t know how you tell a guy who catches 85 balls that he’ll only probably catch 40. I feel like the role they were trying to put me in I’d be held back from maximizing my talents.

I don’t get how you can tell a guy that (he) wouldn’t start certain games, especially knowing the team and the talent.

“I don’t see why I wouldn’t be a starter in this league. It didn’t make sense to me. I’m pretty sure it won’t make sense to a lot of other people.

I don't necessarily believe that this is exactly how it went down. It might have been, Hey, Dre, you need to take a serious pay cut. And he might have said FU wrinkle chin. And that would be fine.

But if this team actually told him that he would be expected to catch 40 passes next year and not start? Man, these guys have outdone themselves in radical stupidity. What, CJ Fed is going to nab all those balls that used to go to Andre? Demaris Johnson? Maybe they're counting on Posey to have a big year.

I certainly hope they've told Arian that he'll get ten or twelve carries a game next year. IF he starts.

I understand that Andre was overpaid, but that's how it goes. If any of the above is true, well, this team's perennial lack of success is well deserved and unlikely to change, ever.

The team gets zero production from an entire draft and the next year instead of fire the GM they dismiss the single greatest player in franchise history. Amazing.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by chuck

I don't necessarily believe that this is exactly how it went down. It might have been, Hey, Dre, you need to take a serious pay cut. And he might have said FU wrinkle chin. And that would be fine.

But if this team actually told him that he would be expected to catch 40 passes next year and not start? Man, these guys have outdone themselves in radical stupidity. What, CJ Fed is going to nab all those balls that used to go to Andre? Demaris Johnson? Maybe they're counting on Posey to have a big year.

I certainly hope they've told Arian that he'll get ten or twelve carries a game next year. IF he starts.

I understand that Andre was overpaid, but that's how it goes. If any of the above is true, well, this team's perennial lack of success is well deserved and unlikely to change, ever.

The team gets zero production from an entire draft and the next year instead of fire the GM they dismiss the single greatest player in franchise history. Amazing.

It's easy to be mad about AJ going out no matter how it happened. Best player in franchise history. And he suffered quietly the terrible hand we dealt him.

But even if they tried to force him to walk with ridiculous demands, the logical side of me says "as long as he's gone it's a good thing." The only way they could have messed this up was paying him for another year in the name of sentimentality (which is how Bob Mcnair messed this same decision up a year ago).

[Keith]

The team saved $11.5M on the cap in base salary and roster bonus. Andre's production in 2015 was never going to be worth that. To paraphrase a movie quote from one of my favorite films, Moneyball, getting Andre off the Texans 2015 payroll is a good thing. It opens up all kinds of possibilities.

Namely, those possibilities include re-signing the right tackle, the top corner, and the starting QB. Andre's projected production is going to be available on the market or in the draft.

Now, let's extend JJo, cut Graham, and keep building that new nucleus.

[popanot]

Don't get me wrong, I want to keep JJoe, but I think he is next on the 'take a cut or walk' train... Graham, Meyers, Fitz have tickets reserved for them as well if I were GM. I didn't see Fitz do anything Keenum or some other schelp couldn't do for half the price.

I'd rather pay Kareem, give Mallett a decent bump, extend some of the other young guys while they might be cheap(er) and maybe take a shot at a good FA or two.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by popanot

I didn't see Fitz do anything Keenum or some other schelp couldn't do for half the price.

I'd much prefer Fitzy over Keenum. Fitzy was fairly capable of playing a checkdown, ball control style. This was a QB known for throwing picks, and aside a bad half or two, kept the team from losing games. Keenum OTOH has no feel for the short game. The upside is from the Ravens game where BOB was able to keep him from doing Keenum-ish things. Case got back to the business of being Case against the Jags, and it was hard to watch.

Neither is of course the answer. I'd like to think a healthy Tom Savage can adequately back up Ryan Mallett in 2015. Let both Fitzy and Keenum walk and draft a mid- to late-round developmental QB to run the scout team in practice.

[Nconroe]

Originally Posted by popanot

Don't get me wrong, I want to keep JJoe, but I think he is next on the 'take a cut or walk' train... Graham, Meyers, Fitz have tickets reserved for them as well if I were GM. I didn't see Fitz do anything Keenum or some other schelp couldn't do for half the price.

I'd rather pay Kareem, give Mallett a decent bump, extend some of the other young guys while they might be cheap(er) and maybe take a shot at a good FA or two.

pretty much agree with this.

according to this article , Texans have $146,025,746 in adjusted salary cap space. http://hou.scout.com/story/1522829-c...lead-way?s=116

If I read overthecap correctly if we cut Andre the dead money and cap savings will be dead money $7,319,583 and cap savings $8,825,000. Cut Meyers save 6,000,000 on cap, cut Graham and save 2.4 mil on cap, cut fitzpatrick and save 3.5 mil on cap.

I'm not sure but might be good to keep Fitz as that veteran backup at a reasonable rate.

Hopefully a bunch of last year draft picks will show up more this year and even better next year, they are all young guys.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by popanot

Don't get me wrong, I want to keep JJoe, but I think he is next on the 'take a cut or walk' train... Graham, Meyers, Fitz have tickets reserved for them as well if I were GM. I didn't see Fitz do anything Keenum or some other schelp couldn't do for half the price.

I'd rather pay Kareem, give Mallett a decent bump, extend some of the other young guys while they might be cheap(er) and maybe take a shot at a good FA or two.

Fitz was 5 points higher completion percentage, twice as good INT/TD ratio, 8 ypa to 5.6, and a 95 to 72 edge in passer rating. Fitzpatrick is a mediocre starting NFL QB, Keenum is not a starting NFL QB.

[popanot]

Originally Posted by barrett

Fitz was 5 points higher completion percentage, twice as good INT/TD ratio, 8 ypa to 5.6, and a 95 to 72 edge in passer rating. Fitzpatrick is a mediocre starting NFL QB, Keenum is not a starting NFL QB.

Sure, Fitz was better than Keenum and Keenum is not starting material. Not going to argue that. My point is, I don't want either one of them starting and I don't think they should pay the backup (that being Fitz) $4MM on a team that is probably not going to be a serious contender anyway. I'd rather take $2MM or more of his salary and put it elsewhere and let Keenum/Savage/Rookie/Scrap Heap QB/Whoever fight it out for #2 and #3. I'm not saying I'd absolutely keep Keenum, but I am saying I'd absolutely cut Fitz or at least give him the pay-cut or walk ultimatum.

[WMH]

Originally Posted by popanot

Sure, Fitz was better than Keenum and Keenum is not starting material. Not going to argue that. My point is, I don't want either one of them starting and I don't think they should pay the backup (that being Fitz) $4MM on a team that is probably not going to be a serious contender anyway. I'd rather take $2MM or more of his salary and put it elsewhere and let Keenum/Savage/Rookie/Scrap Heap QB/Whoever fight it out for #2 and #3. I'm not saying I'd absolutely keep Keenum, but I am saying I'd absolutely cut Fitz or at least give him the pay-cut or walk ultimatum.

Believe it or not, I'm of the opinion that Fitz will likely have trade value by the end of the preseason. That's how poor the QB market is. Hell, the Bills just traded for Cassell......

Mallet will be the starter, and I still think we're going to have to over pay in order for that to happen.

[popanot]

ProFootballTalk ‏@ProFootballTalk · 3m3 minutes ago
Per league source, Texans have informed Chris Myers he will be released.

Next up...

[Arky]

Originally Posted by popanot

Next up...

Whoa, OB polishing out the Kubiak fingerprints? Ben Jones the new starter?

[Keith]

Myers was certainly a possible cut move. I just had a hard time seeing the plan at such an important position with him gone. I'll withhold judgment on this move until I see what's next for the center position.

Have to believe freeing up this cap space is good news for retaining Mallett, Kareem, and Newton though.

JJo better be sleeping with one eye open at this rate. Either that or maybe they are extending his contract since news of his release hasn't happened (yet)...?

[Keith]

The NFLPA has a public salary cap report refreshed daily. I'm not sure whether the site is only counting the top 51 salaries vs. the cap in the offseason, but helpful nonetheless.

https://nflpa.com/public-salary-cap-report