Official Texans vs. Chiefs Game Thread, 09/18/2016

[Arky]

Originally Posted by barrett

I wasn't totally dismissing the numbers, just pointing out that they are basically equally great at home no matter what the point spread says.

Now if you are betting the line, than the 11-1 ATS is a huge deal since being better than .500 ATS is tough. If you are trying to pick a winner, all you need to know is NE at home.

Plus the small sample size like I said. We are talking about 12 total games spread across 16 seasons, and with Brady out, there is not a single player from over half of those teams playing in this game. So you would be picking winners of Thursday's game based on things Willie McGinest and Deon Branch did a decade ago.

Bottom line is NE is hard to beat at home, but obviously a 3rd string QB makes that easier.

Sure, no disagreement here. I think the trend bettor just sees the fact that 11 out of 12 times as a home dog, historically, the New England organization has got the job done. And 10 out of 12 times, they've walked away the straight up winner - a trend the Texans will have to overcome. So, just sayin', it will be a big fat ostrich feather in their cap if they (the Texans) can pull it off....