Statistically Speaking, Is Trading Down A Smart Move?

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by dalemurphy

odds of a 1st round bust: 32%
odds of a 2nd round bust: 32%

odds of quality player in 1st: 60%
odds of quality player in 2nd: 52%

odds of elite player in 1st: 25%
odds of elite player in 2nd: 15%

[/I]

Very interesting: 1st round & 2 round downsides are equivalent, but the first round has a higher upside than the second, according to the stats.

[dalemurphy]

Originally Posted by nunusguy

Very interesting: 1st round & 2 round downsides are equivalent, but the first round has a higher upside than the second, according to the stats.

In the article, I broke it down further:

Even among the elite players that I counted, the elite of the elite (if that makes sense), trended heavily towards round one.

However, when you factor in that a 1st round pick is equivalent to 2 second round picks, it also became clearly that dropping into the second round was a much surer way to get at a quality player- With two picks in the 2nd, a team had nearly an 80% chance of hitting on one quality player... much higher probability than the 60% chance with a single round one selection.

[Zac Attack]

Good point. I too am more of a fan of trading down than trading up.

I heard the scenario on Sportradio 610 a few days ago when they were talking about the #2 pick (Von Miller) for This years 1st and 3rd round picks plus next years 1st round pick.

I like the draft season a lot. If the Texans don't have any draft picks, then it would be a boring off season.

But if Von Miller is the real deal, then I say go for it. Mario, Ryans, Cushing, Barwin, Smith, Johnson, should all have pressure on the Offensive Line. So if Von Miller is a super star 95% sure, I say do it....

And this move would tell me that McNair said, playoff or pink slip.

[NBT]

Well, I guess we'll see when the Draft comes around.

[Blitzwood]

" Statistically Speaking, Is Trading Down A Smart Move?"

Ask Bill Belichick ......

[NBT]

If we had a Bill Belichik?