Case Keenum: Career Backup or Something More?

[Keith]

Split the Case discussion from the Jags game thread.

Originally Posted by Arky

Seems like some expect "sensational" all the time....

I don't expect the sensational, though it seems Case expects it of himself. Case needs to learn to throw the ball away instead of taking a 16 yard loss and a sack. Reading blitzes, knowing when to throw away... these are things young QBs always struggle with, so combine that with the injuries on offense, and I can understand why the results are what they have been and why people want to give Case a huge benefit of the doubt.

I don't lay the 0-5 record on Case at all, those first three were there to win, and the team as a whole is responsible. But losing at home to the Raiders and Jaguars? When the opposition had Henne and someone named McLovin? Those "backyard" or what I call "flag football" plays sure seem to have dried up lately. Not a fluke. Teams adjust. This is why it was dangerous to prorate Keenum's stats after just 3 games.

I'm just judging based on what I see. One stat I find telling in my assessment: Keenum is completing just 47.5% of his passes between 1-10 yards through 59 attempts. Yikes.

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

How many of the teams in playoff position today are ones that the QB is with their original team and drafted in the first round?

NE - no.
DEN - no
KC - no
CIN - no (Dalton was a second-rounder IIRC)
IND - yes
6th seed? - who cares, they're all 5-6.

SEA - no (Wilson not a first-rounder)
NO - no
ARI - no
DET - yes
DAL - no
CAR - yes

Maybe drafting an elite QB 1-1 isn't the magic tonic some people think.

It's not, and taking Clowney or Matthews may be a good move, especially since the round 1 cap hits are easier on teams now, but a couple things... your list ignores that Denver, KC, and Arizona each have 1-1 guys as their QBs (even though they didn't draft them).

So what this list tells me is that most playoff teams DO need a quality QB, and quality is typically found higher in the draft than later. Are there exceptions? Of course. But Brady's and Romo's are far from the norm, and I don't count Keenum as being in that class.

With a new regime presumably coming in, a new QB at the top just seems all the more likely.