Playoff possibilities & why Houston should be more optimisitc

[itssharif]

Originally Posted by TheMatrix31

Hopefully someone can re-crank out the possibilities. I just like to know what would have to happen, even though I know it's not gonna happen.

The situation has now basically come to this. The Texans have to ABSOLUTELY WIN on Sunday against Miami. If that can happen that win can do 2 things. 1) of course the obvious improve our own record but 2) it would clinch the division for New England no matter their outcomes. Now comes the tricky part. The Jets CANNOT win out. If they do they have a very strong conference mark and will virtually eliminate everybody else who is 9-7 EXCEPT the Jaguars. So with that being said we need a loss from both of those teams for sure. Another loss is needed from Tennessee because they own the division tie breaker with us. The only scenario we beat out Denver is if they lose out. Now the final part that is a little tricky is the Cincinnati, Baltimore, Pittsburgh scenarios. The situation is as follows. Cincinnati owns the tie breaker within the division (which is the 1st tie breaker applied always) so the only way for them to get beaten out is by the benefit of a greater record. Technically Baltimore is the only team that can viably achieve that in the AFC North. That being said if Baltimore is to win out so that we could utilize our advantage over Cincy courtesy of the head to head we own against them; Cincy would have to lose vs. KC and then again at N.Y Jets. Because the Jets hold a lot of the cards (of the potential 9-7 teams) it is actually NOT beneficial for us to somehow end up in this scenario because along with the sheer unlikelyhood of it even happenning there are still a number of scenarios that could work against us so I'm considering this scenario as incredibly unlikely (and probably just down right not beneficial for us) even though it technically can still happen. The more likely scenario of the AFC North is if Cincy wins in week 16 against KC and Baltimore loses to Pittsburgh (this game is a huge toss up and very much up for debate but I think it is very possible for Pittsburgh to pull this off). The only tie breaker we possess against any of the other 7-7 teams is against Pittsburgh ONLY (meaning we can not be tied to any other teams at the time of us being tied to Pittsburgh). So with all this being said if I could have a perfect scenario after Week 16's set of games it would all end up like this:

Scenario 1 (my opinion of easier and more likelier path)

Week 16
Houston beats Miami (MOST IMPORTANT)
Indy beats Jets
NE beats Jax
Phi beats Den
SD beats Ten
Pit beats Bal

That would leave the wild card looking as such:

5- Baltimore (8-7)
6- Denver (8-7)
7- Houston (8-7)
8- Pittsburgh (8-7)

Then that would basically leave us praying for both the Win against New England AND loss to Baltimore via Oakland OR a loss to Denver via Kansas City.

Scenario 2 (less likely to happen)

Week 16
Houston beats Miami (MOST IMPORTANT)
Indy beats Jets
NE beats Jax
Phi beats Den
SD beats Ten
Bal beats Pit
KC beats Cin

That would leave the wild card looking as such:

4- Cincinnati (9-6)
5- Baltimore (9-6)
6- Denver (8-7)
7- Houston (8-7)

In this case again WE NEED TO WIN and then root for either a KC win OR a Baltimore win AND a Cincy loss.

The only thing I like going for us is that the Week 16 schedule just looks overall favorable for us IF we can just make sure to win (God please don't let the Texans screw this up). I know I can see very loseable games for our other in the hunt and wild card contenders and it can end up making for a very memorable final game of the regular season. Again to simplify for all we need wild card contenders to lose out and only possess 2 potential tie breakers in a win out scenario. One of which is not very likely to be used (over Cincy) and the other of which (over Pittsburgh) can only happen if they win out. Just believe guys. Pray and believe!