Statistically Speaking, Is Trading Down A Smart Move?

[nunusguy]

Originally Posted by dalemurphy

odds of a 1st round bust: 32%
odds of a 2nd round bust: 32%

odds of quality player in 1st: 60%
odds of quality player in 2nd: 52%

odds of elite player in 1st: 25%
odds of elite player in 2nd: 15%

[/I]

Very interesting: 1st round & 2 round downsides are equivalent, but the first round has a higher upside than the second, according to the stats.