Statistically Speaking, Is Trading Down A Smart Move?

[dalemurphy]

I confess to having a bias. I have always loved the trade down. While I have always assumed it to be the smarter move, there are two other variables that likely have influenced my preference:

1. I grew up a Cowboys’ fan. After struggling thru the 1980s, the Jerry and Jimmy trade downs in the draft became the stuff of legend and I am likely influenced by the results of those experiences.

2. The draft is fun to watch. And, when you have more picks, it is even more fun. What is even more amazing about the trade down (from an entertainment stand point) is I still get to experience the excitement of the clock until the trade is announced. After that, I am promised at least two more exciting moments all resulting from that one trade. That’s 3 for 1! Way fun.

So, I decided to do some research and try and figure out, from a probability standpoint, whether drafting higher or lower yields more benefits. I wanted to look at the first two rounds. Realizing that the first few picks are either very highly coveted or poisonous due to financial concerns (depending on the year), I focused on the middle of the first round. I looked at the picks between #8 and #20 and compared those to the first 13 picks of round 2 (#33-#45). The Texans pick #11 this year. According to the standard draft chart, the 11th pick of the draft is worth the #33, #34 overall picks, and a 4th round pick. Remember that when we analyze the data. In theory, the Texans could orchestrate a deal/ or combination of deals that would land them two early second round picks and a 4th round pick for their current 1st round selection. But, is that a prudent move? Here are a few variables that should be considered while analyzing the data:

1. There will generally be a slight difference in the quality of team a middle first rounder goes to and an early second round pick goes to. Considering that, perhaps the second round pick that goes to a lesser team is slightly more likely to receive playing time. Also, however, perhaps he is slightly more likely to fail due to being on a poorer team.

2. Where a team drafts likely impacts their philosophy. Certain positions are usually not considered high in the draft: C, and FB for instance. Also, a team may be more inclined to draft the best player on the board with the 8th pick but more inclined to address a need in the second round.

3. The current rookie wage scale would ensure that the 11th pick of the draft would cost far more cap money than the two second round picks and the fourth rounder that could be garnered in our hypothetical deal, thereby enabling more flexibility with the remainder of the roster.

I counted the picks I would consider quality NFL players (starter caliber), those I would consider all-pro level players, and those that were absolute busts and compared the results of round one (picks 8-20) with the results of round two (picks 33-45)

So, here’s what I found (the chart and info is color-coded):

Texans Bull Blog

If you don't want to click the link, here's a quick summary:

odds of a 1st round bust: 32%
odds of a 2nd round bust: 32%

odds of quality player in 1st: 60%
odds of quality player in 2nd: 52%

odds of elite player in 1st: 25%
odds of elite player in 2nd: 15%