The line has moved up to Texans favored by 6.5 to 7. That means most of the action is coming in on the Texans.
Walterfootball has it as 88%.
Walt brings up a couple of interesting trends when the betting gets lopsided like this:
Quote:
85-15 RULE:
Teams getting 80-84 percent of the action, past two seasons: 24-16-1 ATS.
Teams getting 85-plus percent of the action, past two seasons: 10-23-1 ATS.
(The Broncos are 3-1 ATS when getting 85 percent or more, so if you exclude them, this dynamic is 7-22-1 ATS in the past two seasons.)
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And then, further along in the Texans vs. Jags matchup, there's this:
Quote:
RECAP: I'm not betting this game. The Texans could easily dominate - again, Watt versus a terrible quarterback has been money this year - but going against the 85-15 Rule is not something I want to be a part of, even though the public is a ridiculous 9-1 when fading the Jaguars at 75-plus percent. I also think this spread is pretty fairly priced, as I had it at Texans -5.
Gun to my head, I'm still taking the Texans, but not with any sort of conviction.
FINAL THOUGHTS: This is an 85-15 game. However, the Jaguars are the only team that seldom covers in this situation.
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So, all this to say, the trends show when there is heavy betting of the public at over an 85% clip, that favorite seldom covers against the spread. Unless it's the Jags......
So, who's the right side? Dunno, but don't be surprised if it's a closer game than expected....