View Full Version : Official Texans vs. Chiefs Game Thread, 09/18/2016
The 1-0 Kansas City Chiefs visit NRG stadium this Sunday in an early game on CBS. The last time these two teams met... ummm, yeah....... The 1-0 Texans are coming off a 23-14 victory over Chicago in Week 1.
After falling behind to San Diego 24-3, the Chiefs cranked it up in the 2nd half winning in OT 33-27. Chiefs QB Alex Smith was 34/48, 363 yards, 2 TD's, 1 INT with a 97.8 rating. Spencer Ware had 11 carries for 70 yards, 1 TD and 7 receptions for 129 yards. The Chiefs have won 11 straight regular season games.
TV = CBS (channel 11 local), noon CST, Sunday 9-18-16
Announcers (http://506sports.com/nfl.php?yr=2016&wk=2) = Spero Dedes, Solomon Wilcots
The line (http://www.madduxsports.com/nfl-odds.php) = Texans by 2 to 3
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Other Sunday viewing in the Houston area:
CBS (late) = Indianapolis @ Denver, Jim Nantz, Phil Simms
FOX (late) = Seattle @ Los Angeles, Joe Buck, Troy Aikman
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Prime Time:
TNF = NY Jets @ Buffalo (CBS; NFLN)
SNF = Green Bay @ Minnesota (NBC)
MNF = Philadelphia @ Chicago (ESPN)
HPF Bob
09-17-2016, 03:49 PM
Jamaal Charles is ruled out as well as both starting guards. If we can get a good interior push, we can really mess up their offense.
nunusguy
09-18-2016, 09:24 AM
Wonder who would like to beat the Chiefs more, Obrien or Crennel ? Of course the Chiefs totally humiliated O'Brien and his team twice last year and fired Crennel when he was their HC.
Got no idea how this will turn out other than it should be closer than 30-0. Is this young offense ready for the challenge?
Kickoff in about 15 minutes....
Chiefs win the toss and defer, Texans to receive.
Ervin brings the kickoff back to about the Texan 16. Texan's ball.
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Pass to Fido gets 1.
L Miller for 2. Brings up 3rd and 7.
Oz hits Fuller over the middle for about 17 or 18, first down.
L Miller goes right side for 8.
Deep pass to Fuller complete for 52 yards! Ball inside the 5, 1st and goal.
Oz's pass too high for Hop in the end zone, inc.
L Miller for about 1. Brings up 3rd and goal at the 2 yard line.
Oh no, Peters steps in front and INT's Oz's pass, brings it out to the 20. Chief's ball.
chuck
09-18-2016, 12:11 PM
Run the fking football you goddamn idiot.
Ball marked at the 19.
Pass to Kelce at the sideline gets 5.
Pass to Conley gets 5 and the 1st down.
Pass to Kelce gets 11.
Smith's pass is batted down by Clowney, inc.
Ware for 4. Brings up 3rd and 6.
High snap, fumble!!! Watt recovers! Texan's ball at the Chief 27!
Pass to Hop goes for TD! 27 yards.
Texans 7, Chiefs 0
8:01 left in the 1st qtr.
Big Texas
09-18-2016, 12:19 PM
Obrien loves to throw the ball...All that talk of a pound it out run game comes only when we are up 2-3 TDs...I don't have a problem with it though.
Brock gets his jitters out early...Now focus big fella
Davis brings the ensuing kickoff back to the Chief 29. Chief's ball.
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Ware for about 1.
Ware for maybe 1. Brings up 3rd and 8.
Deep pass is INT'ed by KJo but looks like offsides against Merci..... Chiefs take that penalty and repeat 3rd down and 2.....
Pass to Kelce broken up by Bouye, inc. Chiefs have to punt.
Ervin fair catches the punt around the Texan 14. Texan's ball.
6:12 left in the 1st qtr.
Big Texas
09-18-2016, 12:29 PM
That was excellent coverage by Bouye...If he can lock up Kelce our defense can hold up...
L Miller goes left side for 11 but holding (Fido) brings it back. Yay, Fido. Ball at the 8 yard line.
Pass to Hop goes to the 14 yard line. 2nd and 11 coming up.
Pass along the sideline to Fuller goes inc.
Handoff to L Miller gets about 4. Texans will punt on 4th down.
Hill brings Lechler's deep punt back 16 yards to the Chief 36. Chief's ball.
Cleveland Browns 20, Ravens 2
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Hill carries for loss of 1 or 2.
On 2nd and 11, Smith's pass is bobbled and dropped by Maclin, inc.
Deep pass to Maclin off the mark, inc. Chiefs have to punt.
Ervin brings the punt back to the Texan 23. Texan's ball.
3:14 left in the 1st qtr.
L Miller for no gain.
Short pass to B Miller gets 3. Brings up 3rd and 7.
Oz gets sacked. Texans will have to punt.
Hill brings the punt all the way back to the Texan 34. Chief's ball.
Pass to Maclin broken up by JJo, inc.
Dumpoff to West gets about 2. 3rd and 8 coming up.
Watt with the sack! Brings up 4th down...
End of the 1st qtr.
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Chiefs to go for the FG.
Santos 54-yarder is good.
Texans 7, Chiefs 3
14:55 left in the half.
Big Texas
09-18-2016, 12:49 PM
Alright offense is stalling...
Ervin brings the ensuing kickoff back to the Texan 15. Texan's ball.
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Pass to Griffin over the middle broken up, inc.
L Miller for 4. Brings up 3rd and 6.
Oy, pass to B Miller off his fingers, inc. Texans have to punt.
Punt goes out of bounds at the Chief 31. Chief's ball.
13:52 left in the half.
Smith's pass in the flat goes inc.
Ware gets loose for 25 yards. 1st down.
Pass to Hill gets about 5. 2nd and 5 coming up.
West gets 6 and the 1st down... penalty marker down....holding on the Chiefs, -10. Brings up 2nd and 15.
Flags presnap... false start Chiefs, -5. Brings up 2nd and 20.
Deep pass to Harris is complete but he fumbles and the Texans recover. Play is under review..... Play is ruled an inc. pass. Brings up 3rd and 20.
Watt with the sack! Chiefs will have to punt.
Fair caught by Ervin at the Texan 17. Texan's ball.
10:59 left in the half. Let's go offense.....
chuck
09-18-2016, 01:05 PM
I just don't see how that's not a catch. I don't care who the ruling favored, it's just bad for the game when idiotic calls like that are made. It happens every week. I used to love the NBA. Now I watch maybe half an hour per season. I wonder if I'll get to that point with the NFL. I'm heading in that direction with the MLB.
Big Texas
09-18-2016, 01:11 PM
That was the ugliest end around ever...lol
Big Texas
09-18-2016, 01:13 PM
How is that not pass interference?
Blue for 2.
Pass to Hop gets 14 and the 1st down.
Blue for about 4.
Pass to Anderson gets 8 and the 1st down.
Pass to Anderson gets 7 more. 2nd and 3 coming up, ball at midfield.
Blue gets maybe 2. 3rdand 1 coming up.
Pitch to L Miller goes for no gain. Texans going for it on 4th down.
Dump to L Miller gets the 1st down at the Chief 37.
Pass to Griffin gets 5. 2nd and 5 coming up.
Pass to Fuller down the sideline goes complete but out of bounds, inc. Flag on the Chiefs for taunting, +15 yards. Places the ball at the Chief 17.
End around to B Miller gets sniffed out. Loss of 2.
Pass to L Miller in the flat gets 5. 3rd and 7 coming up.
Pass to Hop in the end zone is ruled out of bounds, inc. OB challenges the ruling....
Play stands... Texans to go for the FG.
Novak's 32-yarder is good.
Texans 10, Chiefs 3
4:16 left in the half.
chuck
09-18-2016, 01:20 PM
Also, Nuk's knee was down in the end zone. Maybe they're confused about possession. They seem to have some trouble understanding when a receiver possesses the football.
Davis brings the ensuing kickoff back to the Chief 23.
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Ware gets 2.
Ware for 5. Brings up 3rd and 3.
Texans use a timeout (1 left) with 2:57 left in the half.
Pass to Kelce gets 8 and the 1st down.
Pass to Maclin gets 13 and the 1st down. Ball in Texan territory at the 49.
2 minute warning.
Woohoo, Ware fumbles and KJo picks it up and returns it all the way to the Chief 15 or so! Texan's ball!
Ball marked at the Chief 14.
L Miller for 2.
Miller gets about 6.... Brings up 3rd and 2 at the 6 yard line.
Goodness, pass in the end zone off the hands of Strong, inc. Texans to go for the FG.
Novak's 24-yarder is good.
Texans 13, Chiefs 3
1:21 left in the half.
Big Texas
09-18-2016, 01:29 PM
Our Oline must SUCK...Obrien does not trust them to run block for 2 yds...
Big Texas
09-18-2016, 01:31 PM
Also where is Charles James in punt coverage?
The ensuing kickoff is brought back to the Chief 18 yard line. Chief's ball.
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West for 4.
Smith scrambles out of bounds for a loss but holding on the Chiefs backs it up. 2nd and 16 coming up.
Pass to Wilson gets 4. Texans use their final timeout with 40 seconds left in the half.
West gets loose for 28 yards and the 1st down.
Smith's pass off the mark, inc. 23 seconds left in the half.
Smith scrambles and gets stripped, Merci recovers for the Texans. Texan's ball at the Chief 39 with 13 seconds left in the half.
Oz can't find a receiver and throws it away, inc. 8 seconds to go.
Oz throws it away again. Texans to try the long FG.
Novak's 57-yarder is off the upright no good.
Score remains:
Texans 13, Chiefs 3
Halftime.
Hill brings the 2nd half kickoff back to the Chief 28 yard line. Chief's ball.
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Ware for 7.
Ware for 1. Brings up 3rd and 2.
Ware gets 1. Brings up 4th and 1. Chiefs to punt.
Ervin fields the punt at the 5 and is tackled immediately. Flag is down..... no penalty.....
chuck
09-18-2016, 01:58 PM
Also where is Charles James in punt coverage?
Good question. They have Watt, Clowney and Mercilus playing on the return teams which strikes me as possibly not the greatest idea.
L Miller for 1.
L Miller for 3. Brings up 3rd and 6 at the 10 yard line.
Pass to Fuller gets the 1st down at the 30 yard line.
L Miller goes right side for 12 but holding on Allen brings it back. Makes it 1st and 20.
L Miller for about 3. 2nd and 17 coming up.
Pass to Hop broken up, inc. 3rd and 17 coming up.
Handoff to Grimes gets 7. Texans will punt on 4th and 10.
Hill brings the punt back to the Chief 38 but flag is down..... illegal block in back on the Chiefs backs it up 10... Ball is marked at the Chief 27.
8:56 left in the 3rd qtr.
Smith has all day to throw deep but it ends up inc. 2nd and 10 coming up.
Smith sacked by McKinney! Loss of 8.
On 3rd and 18, pass to Hill gets 3. Chiefs will have to punt.
Ervin brings the punt back to the Texan 45. Texan's ball.
L Miller for 2.
Oz's deep pass to Fuller too long, inc. Brings up 3rd and 8.
Oz gets sacked. Texan's will have to punt.
Hill brings the punt back to the Chief 14. Chief's ball.
Ware gets 14 but a flag is down....holding on the Chiefs, 1/2 the distance to the goal. Places the ball at the Chief 7, 1st and 17.
Pass to Maclin is broken up by KJo, inc.
Smith's dump off pass is dropped, inc. Brings up 3rd and 17.
West gets 8. Chiefs will have to punt.
Ervin fields the punt and gets planted immediately. Texan's ball at their 29.
Pass to Hop goes all the way to the Chief 36. 35 yards.
Oh no, Hop tips the pass and Peters INT's it. Chiefs ball at their 49.
Big Texas
09-18-2016, 02:23 PM
Bad throw...looks like DHop and Brock were not on the same page...
Pitch to West goes to the Texan 30. 21 yards.
West loses 1. 2nd and 11 coming up.
Screen in the flat to Maclin loses a yard. 3rd and 12 coming up.
Pass to Wilson gets 7. Chiefs will go for the FG.
End of the 3rd quarter.
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Santos 43-yarder is good.
Texans 13, Chiefs 6
14:56 left in the game.
The ensuing kickoff goes out of bounds.... Texans will have the ball at their 40 yard line.
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L Miller for 5.
L Miller gets 8 and the 1st down.
L Miller for 4.
L Miller for 3. Brings up 3rd and 3.
Flat pass to Hop gets 6 and the 1st down.
L Miller for 1. 2nd and 9 coming up at the Chief 32.
Pass to Fuller gets 14 and the 1st down at the 18 yard line.
L Miller for 6.
L Miller loses 1. Brings up 3rd and 5.
Oy, pass to Grimes off his hands, inc. Flag for holding on the Texans declined. Texans to go for the FG.
Novak's 31-yarder is good.
Texans 16, Chiefs 6
9:34 left in the game.
The Chiefs bring the ensuing kickoff back to their 31. Chief's ball.
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Pass to Ware goes all the way to the Texan 35. 34 yards.
Smith's pass over the middle sails inc. 2nd and 10 coming up.
Smith's pass over the middle to Wilson is broken up, inc. 3rd and 10 coming up.
Pass to Maclin gets the 1st down at the Texan 19.
Pass to Conley off the mark, inc. 2nd and 10 coming up. 8:18 left in the game.
Smith can't find a receiver and scrambles for 1. 3rd and 9 coming up.
Smith pressured, throws inc. Chiefs will have to go for the FG.
Santos 35-yarder is good.
Texans 16, Chiefs 9
7:34 left in the game.
Ervin downs the ensuing kickoff in the end zone, touchback. Texan's ball at their 25.
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L Miller for 3.
Pass to Hop gets 9 and the 1st down.
L Miller goes left for about 6.
L Miller up the gut for 6 and the 1st down.
L Miller for 4. Brings up 2nd and 6. About 4 1/2 minutes left in the game.
L Miller for no gain. 3rd and 6 coming up.
Flat pass to Grimes goes for about 10 and the 1st down. Ball at the Chief 35.
Blue gets 4. Chiefs use a 2nd timeout.
Blue gets nabbed for loss of 1. 3rd and 7 coming up. Chiefs use final timeout with 3:52 left in the game.
Deep pass goes inc but flag is down on the Texans for hands to the face. Chiefs opt to back'em up 10. Brings up 3rd and 17 at the 42 yard line.
Pass to Hop gets very close to the 1st down..... It's gonna be 4th and 1. Texans to go for the FG.
Novak's 43-yarder is good.
Texans 19, Chiefs 9
2:56 left in the game.
Big Texas
09-18-2016, 03:07 PM
Special teams play has been terrible...back to usual.
Hill takes the ensuing kickoff all the way back for 105 yards but a flag is down.....Holding on Chiefs......Ball is placed at the Chief 12 yard line.
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Pass to Kelce gets 3.
Pass to Conley get 10 and the 1st down. 2:13 left in the game.
Pass to Ware gets 14.
2 minute warning.
Pass to Kelce gets 8.
Pass to Maclin get nice gain to the Texan 37. 1:32 remaining.
Pass over the middle goes inc but flag is down....PI on KJ. Ball is placed at the Texan 25.
Pass is good for 10 to Maclin. 1:23 left in the game.
Pass in the end zone to Kelce is too high, inc. 2nd and 10 from the 15 coming up.
Flags presnap....false start offense, -5. Makes it 2nd and 15 coming up.
Another false start offense, -5. Makes it 2nd and 20 coming up.
Pass to Maclin gets about 12. 3rd and 7 coming up.
Pass goes over everyone in the end zone, inc. Chiefs will go for the FG with 52 seconds left.
Santos 30-yarder is good.
Texans 19, Chiefs 12
49 seconds left in the game.
DHop fields the onside kick and hits the turf. Texan's ball.
Texans kneeling it.
Final score:
Texans 19, Chiefs 12
Not pretty but it's off to New England @ 2-0 ....
chuck
09-18-2016, 03:25 PM
I'm happy to point out all the team's many draft day misses but it looks a lot like they hit with Fuller.
This is probably the worst OL the team has ever put on the field. Still, you have to commit to running the football.
I don't know whether the coverage teams blow or whether their guy is just that good. Our guy taking a knee in the end zone was the best return I've seen in three years.
I would like to think that the defense will cause some serious problems for a third string quarterback.
nunusguy
09-18-2016, 03:52 PM
Like Arky says it's not pretty, but it's great to finally beat the Chiefs.
I don't expect an early line to show up for Texans vs. Patriots on Thursday for a while.... Studio guys on CBS were talking like Belichick will go after a free agent QB for a quick cram session since Garoppolo went down. Might not see a spread till Wednesday or even Thursday morning....
Big Texas
09-18-2016, 04:13 PM
I never put anything past Billicheck...So we have to bring our A game no matter who's at QB...
barrett
09-18-2016, 06:09 PM
The modern NFL is built on big plays. Defenses are so good they are just easier to beat with a few giant plays per year. It is nice to finally see us enter the big play era. Fuller is a perfect compliment to Hopkins, as they both help each other out with the coverage the other faces. Hopkins can't be permanently doubled because Fuller demands a saftey's attention, and Fuller gets a few chances a game to run by 1-on-1 coverage because of Hopkins.
Also, I am glad that I was right about Jacksonville still being terrible. So many people had bought into the idea of them being good that I started second guessing myself. But no, they still stink.
chuck
09-18-2016, 06:18 PM
I've been watching quite a bit of the Jacksonville game. They are terrible. Later I'll go watch the fourth quarter of the Titans game to find out what the hell happened beyond the Lions just being the Lions.
Indy is somehow still in the game in Denver.
chuck
09-18-2016, 06:19 PM
Oh, and two upcoming opponents take the field tonight.
barrett
09-18-2016, 06:26 PM
I've been watching quite a bit of the Jacksonville game. They are terrible. Later I'll go watch the fourth quarter of the Titans game to find out what the hell happened beyond the Lions just being the Lions.
Indy is somehow still in the game in Denver.
The NFL is not a sport where young, below average teams automatically get better. The Jags played a historically bad schedule in a terrible division last year and won 5 games. They don't have a single great player on the roster, and their coach is a defensive guru who has put garbage defenses on the field for his whole head coaching career. And that was somehow spun into a breakthrough team.
chuck
09-18-2016, 06:43 PM
The NFL is not a sport where young, below average teams automatically get better. The Jags played a historically bad schedule in a terrible division last year and won 5 games. They don't have a single great player on the roster, and their coach is a defensive guru who has put garbage defenses on the field for his whole head coaching career. And that was somehow spun into a breakthrough team.
They drafted an awful lot of talent. It may take a while for it to come together, or it may never. Anyway, right now they are terrible. They're 0-2, just like the Colts.
barrett
09-18-2016, 06:48 PM
They drafted an awful lot of talent. It may take a while for it to come together, or it may never. Anyway, right now they are terrible. They're 0-2, just like the Colts.
Everyone who consistently drafts high drafts a lot of talent. The problem is there are reasons why those teams consistently draft high, and rarely does a bad organization just accumulate enough talent to overcome their demons. Usually it takes a transcendent player or a new coach to change the attitude. I see neither in Jacksonville so I expect there issues will continue to overcome their inevitably increased talent.
I don't expect an early line to show up for Texans vs. Patriots on Thursday for a while.... Studio guys on CBS were talking like Belichick will go after a free agent QB for a quick cram session since Garoppolo went down. Might not see a spread till Wednesday or even Thursday morning....
And no sooner do I say that and here come several books giving the Texans a 2.5 pt (http://www.madduxsports.com/nfl-odds.php) edge over New England....
chuck
09-18-2016, 08:08 PM
You can draft high as often as not and consistently f up the drafts. Oakland's coming away with Carr and Mack in the same draft just serves to underscore what slapdicks they usually are in the war room. Jax's 2016 haul was awesome on paper. Maybe a future coach will figure out what to do with it once they settle in Toronto or London or Mexico or wherever they end up.
Some idiot the other day was trying to say that BO is the worst QB in the division. I don't think he's all that great yet but he may this year become the best of the four. Not too high a bar but still.
nunusguy
09-18-2016, 08:14 PM
And no sooner do I say that and here come several books giving the Texans a 2.5 pt (http://www.madduxsports.com/nfl-odds.php) edge over New England....
That's kinda amazing since they don't know who will be playing QB for them.
Actually do they even have their QB on their roster at this time ?
barrett
09-18-2016, 08:29 PM
You can draft high as often as not and consistently f up the drafts. Oakland's coming away with Carr and Mack in the same draft just serves to underscore what slapdicks they usually are in the war room. Jax's 2016 haul was awesome on paper. Maybe a future coach will figure out what to do with it once they settle in Toronto or London or Mexico or wherever they end up.
Some idiot the other day was trying to say that BO is the worst QB in the division. I don't think he's all that great yet but he may this year become the best of the four. Not too high a bar but still.
In limited action for both I'd definitely take him over Bortles. Marriota is a pretty big unknown. Luck is such a good soldier he is getting wasted in Indy by the 3rd worst front office in football (ahead of Jax and Ten). Luck had waited so long for a contract he should have just played out 2 more years and gone to a team not run by a coked up idiot.
barrett
09-18-2016, 08:30 PM
That's kinda amazing since they don't know who will be playing QB for them.
Actually do they even have their QB on their roster at this time ?
I guess that's Vegas' acknowledgement that Bellicik is all that matters in NE.
I guess that's Vegas' acknowledgement that Bellicik is all that matters in NE.
Yeah, just speculating here but the oddsmakers may have already concluded that rookie Jacoby Brissett (NC State) is about equal to any street free agent (Whitehurst, etc) that they (New England) may bring in. Very surprised that the oddsmakers have thrown a line out there..... I've seen them keep a game off the board right up until the day of the game many times with a lesser questionable QB situation.
Also, IIRC, New England as a home underdog has some kind of really nice record which I'm sure will come out in the next few days (and I will post it once I see it).... Not a good position for the Texans to be in since it puts them up against a really favorable New England winning trend.....
HPF Bob
09-19-2016, 09:45 AM
I think Osweiler looked better than Week 1. The OL seems to be able to pass block even if they still aren't much at run blocking. They have to figure out some Red Zone plays that will click and depend less on Novak for points.
Somebody order Ervin not to run out kicks from the end zone or field punts inside the 10. The way the rules are now, the odds are better to just catch the ball securely and take a knee.
It is so much fun watching all Crennel's weapons (well, except Cushing) creating havoc all over the field. The idea of going to New England and putting that on a rookie or a guy just brought into camp on a short week is going to be fun because we can send the heat from so many directions.
We have a two-game lead over the Colts and the "surprising" Jaguars. This game was a guaranteed L and now we have a legit shot at winning it so tell the guys to pin their ears back and just have fun with it.
Brisket is going to be dead meat by the time we're done.
barrett
09-19-2016, 11:11 AM
I think Osweiler looked better than Week 1. The OL seems to be able to pass block even if they still aren't much at run blocking. They have to figure out some Red Zone plays that will click and depend less on Novak for points.
Somebody order Ervin not to run out kicks from the end zone or field punts inside the 10. The way the rules are now, the odds are better to just catch the ball securely and take a knee.
It is so much fun watching all Crennel's weapons (well, except Cushing) creating havoc all over the field. The idea of going to New England and putting that on a rookie or a guy just brought into camp on a short week is going to be fun because we can send the heat from so many directions.
We have a two-game lead over the Colts and the "surprising" Jaguars. This game was a guaranteed L and now we have a legit shot at winning it so tell the guys to pin their ears back and just have fun with it.
Brisket is going to be dead meat by the time we're done.
Bob, do you still think Fuller is Jacoby Jones 2.0?
HPF Bob
09-19-2016, 12:49 PM
Yes, he damn near dropped that long pass play with no defender causing it to happen. Take that away and he had a pretty ordinary day. But I was going to take the high road this week until you brought it up.
I also noted another defensive foul on Kareem "Holding, Defense, Number 25" Jackson, but, again was trying to take the high road.
Thanks, Barrett, for reminding me. ;)
chuck
09-19-2016, 12:57 PM
"If you don't count his great plays it turns out he's pretty average."
Speaking of average, the only can't win I saw on the schedule when it was announced was on the road in New England. If the Texans can't go up there and beat the Patriots' version of TJ Yates then they really aren't going anywhere anyway. I wonder if they'll bring Gronk back for the game. I haven't really been following that.
barrett
09-19-2016, 02:20 PM
Yes, he damn near dropped that long pass play with no defender causing it to happen. Take that away and he had a pretty ordinary day. But I was going to take the high road this week until you brought it up.
I also noted another defensive foul on Kareem "Holding, Defense, Number 25" Jackson, but, again was trying to take the high road.
Thanks, Barrett, for reminding me. ;)
So you're just going to keep doubling down on how wrong you are? I don't know what's more funny between that and you thinking that not mentioning Fuller was gracious.
I will give you this Bob, Fuller and Jacoby Jones have the same number of 100 yard receiving games in their career.
...........Also, IIRC, New England as a home underdog has some kind of really nice record which I'm sure will come out in the next few days (and I will post it once I see it)........
Found this in another forum but have no reason to doubt it to be true:
"...Pats are 11-1 ATS and 10-2 straight up as home dogs since 2001"
So, that is the trend the Texans have to overcome if they are to leave Foxboro with the W.....
barrett
09-19-2016, 06:59 PM
Found this in another forum but have no reason to doubt it to be true:
So, that is the trend the Texans have to overcome if they are to leave Foxboro with the W.....
All things NFL suffer from small sample size because of the tiny amount of games, so statistical analysis in the NFL suffers compared to other sports. Additionally, NE's overall record since 2001 is 182-58, which is better than 12-4 on average. And under Brady they are 92-15 at home.
So in a very small sample size of 12 games, NE is slightly better as a home dog than they are overall, and they are slightly worse than they are at home overall.
All things NFL suffer from small sample size because of the tiny amount of games, so statistical analysis in the NFL suffers compared to other sports. Additionally, NE's overall record since 2001 is 182-58, which is better than 12-4 on average. And under Brady they are 92-15 at home.
So in a very small sample size of 12 games, NE is slightly better as a home dog than they are overall, and they are slightly worse than they are at home overall.
I suppose that's one way to look at it. Using your numbers:
182-58 = 75.8% win percentage
12-4 = 75% win percentage
92-15 (Brady@home) = 86% win percentage
Yes, 11-1 or 10-2 are small sample sizes but they do represent trends. 5-3 or 12-10 or 148-127 are not really trends - those are more like coinflip results.....My point is, people will wager large amounts of money on trends and trend bettors will be all over New England on Thursday....
And I guess another factor here is most of New England's recent outstanding numbers have been compiled with Brady and Belichick running the show. Garoppolo was looking like he could carry the load no problem but now, we will probably see Brissett and his numbers are essentially 0-0 (with a nice relief job yesterday)....
barrett
09-20-2016, 07:39 AM
I suppose that's one way to look at it. Using your numbers:
182-58 = 75.8% win percentage
12-4 = 75% win percentage
92-15 (Brady@home) = 86% win percentage
Yes, 11-1 or 10-2 are small sample sizes but they do represent trends. 5-3 or 12-10 or 148-127 are not really trends - those are more like coinflip results.....My point is, people will wager large amounts of money on trends and trend bettors will be all over New England on Thursday....
And I guess another factor here is most of New England's recent outstanding numbers have been compiled with Brady and Belichick running the show. Garoppolo was looking like he could carry the load no problem but now, we will probably see Brissett and his numbers are essentially 0-0 (with a nice relief job yesterday)....
I wasn't totally dismissing the numbers, just pointing out that they are basically equally great at home no matter what the point spread says.
Now if you are betting the line, than the 11-1 ATS is a huge deal since being better than .500 ATS is tough. If you are trying to pick a winner, all you need to know is NE at home.
Plus the small sample size like I said. We are talking about 12 total games spread across 16 seasons, and with Brady out, there is not a single player from over half of those teams playing in this game. So you would be picking winners of Thursday's game based on things Willie McGinest and Deon Branch did a decade ago.
Bottom line is NE is hard to beat at home, but obviously a 3rd string QB makes that easier.
Keith
09-20-2016, 12:04 PM
If the Texans can't go up there and beat the Patriots' version of TJ Yates then they really aren't going anywhere anyway. I wonder if they'll bring Gronk back for the game. I haven't really been following that.Aside from needing to account from the expectation that the Texans offense should improve as the season continues, it should be much easier to beat the Patriots in Foxboro in September than in January.
As it looks now, granted just two weeks into the season, regardless of Thursday's outcome, these are very likely two of the AFC's playoff teams. A Texans win could serve to not only improve their playoff seeding (beating a conference opponent) but also might help them stay away from that road trip back there in the playoffs.
The offense has been interesting to watch... lots of 3-WR shotgun sets. With all the new players that are key to making it work (Osweiler, Lamar, Fuller, even Jeff Allen), I have optimism this unit will become very productive once they become more cohesive and comfortable with the system. And I have to hope that Duane Brown will someday return healthy (remember back in the spring when he said he would be ready week 1??) and solidify the pass pro and improve the rushing to the left side.
I wasn't totally dismissing the numbers, just pointing out that they are basically equally great at home no matter what the point spread says.
Now if you are betting the line, than the 11-1 ATS is a huge deal since being better than .500 ATS is tough. If you are trying to pick a winner, all you need to know is NE at home.
Plus the small sample size like I said. We are talking about 12 total games spread across 16 seasons, and with Brady out, there is not a single player from over half of those teams playing in this game. So you would be picking winners of Thursday's game based on things Willie McGinest and Deon Branch did a decade ago.
Bottom line is NE is hard to beat at home, but obviously a 3rd string QB makes that easier.
Sure, no disagreement here. I think the trend bettor just sees the fact that 11 out of 12 times as a home dog, historically, the New England organization has got the job done. And 10 out of 12 times, they've walked away the straight up winner - a trend the Texans will have to overcome. So, just sayin', it will be a big fat ostrich feather in their cap if they (the Texans) can pull it off....
barrett
09-22-2016, 01:11 PM
Sure, no disagreement here. I think the trend bettor just sees the fact that 11 out of 12 times as a home dog, historically, the New England organization has got the job done. And 10 out of 12 times, they've walked away the straight up winner - a trend the Texans will have to overcome. So, just sayin', it will be a big fat ostrich feather in their cap if they (the Texans) can pull it off....
One thing to add to this.
I was listening to the radio today and they mentioned that this is only the 3rd time since 2006 that NE has been a home underdog. The other two were against Peyton Manning's 1st Broncos team, and against the Bengals after NE was killed by KC in 2014 (the famous "on to Cincinnati" game). So the other 10 games in the 10-2 trend are all over a decade old.
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