Let's Talk 2016 NFL Draft Quarterbacks

[Roy P]

I don't know what "It" is, but I know "It" when I see "It" and Dak Prescott has "It" and I would like to go to battle with him. He reminds me so much of Steve McNair. I hate comparing a Black QB to another Black QB, but that's the initial comparison. The 2nd is Brett Favre, and I'm comparing Mississippi QBs.....so, my 3rd comparison is Russell Wilson and Cam Newton....against my better judgment again African American QBs. To round it out, Ben Roethlisberger. So, mix all those guys up and you see why I'm a Dak Prescott fan.

[Warren]

Prescott has also been compared to Tim Tebow. Both ran Dan Mullen's offense in college, both are physical runners, and both are strong leaders. The big question on Prescott is whether he has the accuracy to be an NFL starter, which Tebow lacked.

[Roy P]

Donovon McNabb was an effective QB and was not very accurate at all. I think that Prescott is more accurate and made huge strides in his passing game from last year to this season. He's not going to be Joe Montana, but if he's as good as McNabb was for the Eagles, he's going to be the best QB this franchise has ever had.

[barrett]

Projecting guys to the NFL is a roll of the dice.

Aside from projecting talent, NFL success is hugely influenced by team, coaching, coaching stability, surrounding talent, etc... If Peyton Manning doesn't run the same offense with the same OC his first 10+ years he's probably still great, but probably not Peyton Manning great. And there are probably QBs who were ruined by Houston/JAX/CLE that could have succeeded if given the perfect situation.

Tebow completed 68% of his passes his senior year in college, accuracy wasn't the main issue. The total inability to operate an NFL offense was (being under center, slow release, terrible mechanics, only read half the field in college and was bad at reading NFL defenses). But Tebow still showed flashes of effectiveness when they ran a gimmick college spread offense for him in Denver. When he played in a regular NFL system he was terrible. Same with Vince Young, he led a team to 12-4 when they were invested in him and built an offense around what he did well. He was a terrible backup when teams didn't.

Carolina has built an offense around deep shots and red zone efficiency. It is a brilliant example of coaches highlighting what a guy does well while minimizing what he does poorly.

Nobody can say for sure what kind of NFL talent Prescott has (except Roy), but the better question for the Texans is whether O'Brien is willing to build around an atypical QB and base an offense on what a guy does well instead of what O'Brien wants. I for one think O'Brien will go for the guy who best does what O'Brien values, not the guy who does the most good things.

[Roy P]

Prescott’s numbers are among the best in SEC history
By Jake Wimberly on September 29, 2015

Prescott and Mullen
The biggest knock on Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott used to be that he was just a runner and not a proficient passer.

That criticism has been put to rest and Prescott is poised to finish off his career as one of the state of Mississippi’s most transcendent college football players of the past 40 years.

Prescott enjoyed a banner season in 2014, including helping his team to the first No. 1 ranking in school history. He guided the Bulldogs to just the third 10-win season in school history and a berth in the Orange Bowl, and finished eighth in Heisman voting. Prescott finished with 4,485 total yards, the third-highest single-season total in SEC history.

Through four games this season, he has Mississippi State in the top 25 again and is on a pace to finish his career in the top five in SEC history in total offense. If Mississippi State were to go to a bowl, Prescott potentially could finish in the top three in the league in that category (behind only Aaron Murray and Tim Tebow). He’s also on a pace to finish his career as the most prolific major-college offensive player in state of Mississippi history.

Not bad for a former three-star recruit from Haughton, La.

Going into this week’s game at Texas A&M, Prescott has not thrown an interception in 191 consecutive attempts – the sixth-longest streak in SEC history and the longest current streak in the country. He has thrown for 1,069 yards, with seven TDs and no interceptions, and is completing 66.9 percent of his passes.

To put Prescott’s Mississippi State career in perspective, consider that there were 14 quarterbacks who started at least one game for the Bulldogs from 2002-08, the seven-season stretch prior to coach Dan Mullen’s arrival in Starkville. Those quarterbacks combined for just over 14,000 total yards, with 79 touchdown passes and 116 interceptions. Prescott is on pace to finish with 11,086 total yards, with 69 touchdown passes and 18 interceptions.

His improvement as a passer has NFL teams looking at him as a potential second-day pick in the 2016 draft. He still can make some refinements as a passer, but he also has come a long way. Quarterback guru David Morris — coincidentally an Ole Miss alum who runs a company that develops and trains quarterbacks called “QB Country” — has said Prescott arguably had the best skill set of any quarterback in the country entering the 2015 season and compared him to former first-round pick Donovan McNabb.

[barrett]

Well if the MSU play-by-play guy/blogger who wrote that article and the QB coach getting paid by Prescott say he is awesome, then I take it back, there is no doubt and no roll of the dice, he is a sure thing.

[Roy P]

- 2015 ALL-SEC FIRST TEAM (COACHES): QB Dak Prescott, Mississippi State...Prescott became the first Bulldog to earn back-to-back first-team honors at quarterback since Billy Stacy in 1956-57. He led the SEC in conference games this fall in completions (226), completion percentage (67.1), passing yards (2,528), touchdown-to-interception ratio (17:4), passing yards per game (316.2) and total offense per game (363.2). The senior also finished second in league games with a 144.3 passing efficiency rating, and tied for fifth in points scored (48). Prescott was the only player in the SEC to lead his team in both passing and rushing on the season and one of only six players in the Power 5 Conferences to do so. The Haughton, Louisiana, native broke his own single-season school records for completion percentage (66.9 in 2015; 61.6 in 2014) and yards per game (284.4 in 2015; 265.3 in 2014). In games against Top-25 opponents, Prescott led the SEC in completions (87), completion percentage (63.5), passing yards (889) and passing yards per game (296.3).

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by barrett

Nobody can say for sure what kind of NFL talent Prescott has (except Roy), but the better question for the Texans is whether O'Brien is willing to build around an atypical QB and base an offense on what a guy does well instead of what O'Brien wants. I for one think O'Brien will go for the guy who best does what O'Brien values, not the guy who does the most good things.

I'm in agreement with you that BOB will go with the guy he feels most comfortable with. I can see the Texans taking Hackenberg. Bill felt comfortable with Hoyer and Mallet. I'm merely stating that was a mistake and I believe Hackenberg will be a mistake too. The price tag for Goff/Wentz may be too expensive to move up for. Jacob Coker and Nate Sudfeld "fit" for OB. I just think that next season is Savage's opportunity to shine or fail. Meanwhile, Prescott has an upside that I would love to see on the roster.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Roy P

I'm in agreement with you that BOB will go with the guy he feels most comfortable with. I can see the Texans taking Hackenberg. Bill felt comfortable with Hoyer and Mallet. I'm merely stating that was a mistake and I believe Hackenberg will be a mistake too. The price tag for Goff/Wentz may be too expensive to move up for. Jacob Coker and Nate Sudfeld "fit" for OB. I just think that next season is Savage's opportunity to shine or fail. Meanwhile, Prescott has an upside that I would love to see on the roster.

I don't know enough about most of the college guys to guess. I think Lynch isn't great but will shoot up draft boards due to looking good in shorts the next few months.

On the one hand I think OB is not the type to take a player that requires him to build an offense around a unique and atypical skill set. But on the other hand I wouldn't be surprised if OB pushes for a day 2 QB instead of a round 1 guy, and tries to steal another year with a vet (hopefully not Hoyer). Prescott could be that type of 2 year project guy if he blows the doors off in the interview process. I think with QBs, the interviews and scheme and personality leadership stuff is so important, and we don't get to see any of that, and that makes projecting QBs way harder than any other position.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by Keith

Here's how I rank the QBs right now:
1. Connor Cook, a clear favorite of mine.
2. Carson Wentz, should shoot up boards. Injured wrist.
3. Jared Goff, nice overall prospect, but I want to see better poise and decision making.
4. Paxton Lynch, strong but can't just scout measurables.

So thanks to being the focus of the Senior Bowl, Wentz shot up as expected but is now being talked about as going in the top 5. Hopefully once these other prospects start having the Combine and Pro Day results, the spotlight will shine a bit more equally on the other players. Wentz is definitely someone I hope the Texans are giving strong consideration.

Since I posted this, a lot has been rumored about Cook being a douche. Not sure the extent of how true this is or how important those impressions are among those making the decisions. But anything that drops QBs in the draft at this point works in the Texans favor. Calling Cook the next Ryan Leaf seems to be a bit of a stretch probably. He helped Mich St win a ton of games... not like this school is ever confused with Alabama. Cook has NFL ready tools.

Also, I am skeptical of mocks giving the Cowboys a QB in the first round. I hear they are deeply cap-committed to Tony Romo, who at 36 this April might have a couple productive seasons left in him.

[popanot]

Originally Posted by Roy P

Jacob Coker and Nate Sudfeld "fit" for OB.

"Fit" as in how? OB had Hack in college for 1 season. For the Texans, OB has been all over the map as far as size and skill set regarding QB. At this point, I don't know what the hell OB is looking for in a QB and what fits his scheme or mindset. My only assumption is he wants someone 'good' that won't kill his offense.

[popanot]

Originally Posted by Keith

Since I posted this, a lot has been rumored about Cook being a douche. Not sure the extent of how true this is or how important those impressions are among those making the decisions. But anything that drops QBs in the draft at this point works in the Texans favor.

Also, I am skeptical of mocks giving the Cowboys a QB in the first round. I hear they are deeply cap-committed to Tony Romo, who at 36 this April might have a couple productive seasons left in him.

I'm not ready to write off Cook just yet either. There is a fine line between being a (rumored) douchebag and being supremely confident bordering on arrogant. I'm not saying he's the next Brady or Rodgers, but those two are pretty damn cocky and arrogant at times too. It's not a bad quality for a QB to have, IMO, if it's managed and focused on the right things.

I've done some reading on this game day captain issue and think it's being way overblown. In addition, I think skipping the Senior Bowl is being overblown. Cook has played a ton of games over the past few years so perhaps he wanted to give it a rest and prepare for the more important test, the Combine. All the other QB's at the Senior Bowl (even Wentz) had something to gain for being there. Cook, not so much. I'm going to hold off judgement on Cook until after the Combined and see how he measures up and hear how he does in his interviews. We'll know a lot more then.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by popanot

"Fit" as in how? OB had Hack in college for 1 season. For the Texans, OB has been all over the map as far as size and skill set regarding QB. At this point, I don't know what the hell OB is looking for in a QB and what fits his scheme or mindset. My only assumption is he wants someone 'good' that won't kill his offense.

At least 6'4" and 225lbs.

[Warren]

Originally Posted by barrett

Tebow completed 68% of his passes his senior year in college, accuracy wasn't the main issue.

I don't think that college completion percentage is a good measure of accuracy, although a particularly low percentage can be an indication of a problem. When I say "accuracy" I mean ball placement, touch, etc. A college QB's completion percentage can be skewed by his offense, if he's mainly only being asked to make the easy throws, and all college stats can be suspect due to the big talent differences that can exist between teams. Florida probably only played a handful of teams during Tebow's career that were as or more talented than they were. Tebow didn't have to have pinpoint precision throwing to guys like Aaron Hernandez and Percy Harvin against college DBs, but in the NFL he found out that the coverage is much tighter. I do agree that he had other issues, and no doubt his bad mechanics played a big part in his lack of accuracy.

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Warren

I don't think that college completion percentage is a good measure of accuracy, although a particularly low percentage can be an indication of a problem. When I say "accuracy" I mean ball placement, touch, etc. A college QB's completion percentage can be skewed by his offense, if he's mainly only being asked to make the easy throws, and all college stats can be suspect due to the big talent differences that can exist between teams. Florida probably only played a handful of teams during Tebow's career that were as or more talented than they were. Tebow didn't have to have pinpoint precision throwing to guys like Aaron Hernandez and Percy Harvin against college DBs, but in the NFL he found out that the coverage is much tighter. I do agree that he had other issues, and no doubt his bad mechanics played a big part in his lack of accuracy.

I think the accuracy got worse when he tried to correct the mechanics. The accuracy was definitely a problem, but he couldn't read an NFL defense and started looking to bail from the pocket at about the 1 second mark. In college he only read half the field, never called audibles, never took snaps, etc...

The number of successful NFL QBs who played in the spread in College is tiny. Cam Newton is one, and I can't really come up with another one with any kind of sustained success. Half of being an NFL QB is pre-snap, and the spread guys spend the whole pre-snap period looking at their coach and waiting for him to tell the whole team what to do.

[Warren]

Can't disagree with that, especially if you mean specifically the spread option. Alex Smith has overcome a shaky start to have a solid but unspectacular career. We'll see what Mariotta does.

[Roy P]

My observation is that high school spread offense has bubbled up to the NCAAA. Eventually the NFL has to adapt and realize that the talent pool is geared towards those types of athletes. You either adapt and evolve or you die. Instead of being stubborn, embrace the skills that are presented and get ahead of the curve. Mariota looked serviceable. Kapernick and even Vince Young looked productive when the offense was tailored

[barrett]

Originally Posted by Roy P

My observation is that high school spread offense has bubbled up to the NCAAA. Eventually the NFL has to adapt and realize that the talent pool is geared towards those types of athletes. You either adapt and evolve or you die. Instead of being stubborn, embrace the skills that are presented and get ahead of the curve. Mariota looked serviceable. Kapernick and even Vince Young looked productive when the offense was tailored

In HS 90% of the talent is on offense. That's where you put your athletes. So the spread allows for a team to put athletes in space against over matched defenders. It is wildly successful. Plus every Head Coach is an offensive guy, and the defensive guys are levels below schematically. Tons of HS offensive coaches are getting college jobs these days. No HS defensive guys are. I coached on the HS level and it is obvious where the coaching and athletic talent is (Katy HS is the exception, and they ate the best spread offenses for breakfast this season with most of their talent and all of their coaching invested on the defensive side).

In college the talent is closer to 50/50, but the QBs are still faster and sometimes bigger than almost everyone trying to tackle them. It still works, but the very best teams slow it down.

In the NFL, %90 of the athletic talent is on the defense. Putting a guy one on one in space usually results in a tackle. The best defensive coaches are all in the NFL, while many of the best offensive minds are not. Put it altogether, and the spread doesn't work in the same ways on the NFL level. On the NFL level you are dead in the water if you can't manipulate the opposing team's personnel. The spread doesn't do that well. Plus in HS and College you replace your QB every 1-3 years. Injury is not as big a concern. In the NFL you want to keep a good QB 10 years so you can't expose him to the same amount of hits.

The best NFL offenses already incorporate the best parts of the spreads and mix them with the best parts of Pro Style offenses. I doubt you ever see an NFL team run a HS style spread and win big.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by barrett

I doubt you ever see an NFL team run a HS style spread and win big.

Great post. Fully agree.

The speed of NFL defenses is just insane.

Count me as not surprised Mariota got hurt in his rookie season, too.

Speaking of... this thread reminds me of the one we had about two years ago. Fun read to look back if anyone has the time.
http://www.inthebullseye.com/forums/...ead.php?t=1724

[Arky]

Originally Posted by barrett

......and the spread guys spend the whole pre-snap period looking at their coach and waiting for him to tell the whole team what to do.

As a viewer, that's a major distraction these days.. I recall watching a MAC game this year - both team's offenses were spending at times, a full 10 seconds staring at their respective sidelines waiting for the call to come in.... Just inefficient and tough to watch from a viewer's perspective...