Draw A Line [AFC Playoff Seed Musings]

[machoneil]

Indy may not have anything to play for in the last game at thier house

[Arky]

Oooh, if this Niners vs. Pats game hold up (Niners currently leading 31-17, early 4th quarter), I believe the Texans may only need to win 1 of their remaining two games to get home field throughout (aka #1 seed).... Who would've thought the Pats could look so bad on Primetime? I know the Texans would never, uhhhh, nevermind.....

[Keith]

The Niners win over the Pats really does a huge favor for the Broncos. If current seedings hold, it would be the Pats as the #3 going to #2 Denver, assuming of course the Pats survive the Wild Card game.

And if the Colts are #5 and the Ravens #4, I don't think the Ravens are quite so automatic at home anymore. Always upsets in the playoffs....

[HPF Bob]

Texans just need to beat Minny next week to clinch home field overall. Denver now moves into the #2 slot with home games against Cleveland and Kansas City to close out the season.

The most likely scenario now is #1 Houston and #2 Denver get first-week byes.

First week will be Cin/Pit at NE, Indy at Baltimore If the home teams win, it then becomes Baltimore at Houston and NE at Denver. It really can't shape up any better for us.

Oh, and congrats to the AFC East Champion SF 49ers. You are better men than we are.

[WMH]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

Oh, and congrats to the AFC East Champion SF 49ers. You are better men than we are.

Any given Sunday Bob. You've likely watched enough football to know that. It was amazing to watch the ball bounce the 49ers way as much as it did last night. It was also amazing to watch Brady bring his squad back from doldrums. Its what makes the NFL so great.

Needing 1 W out of 2 games for the #1 seed is pretty damn good if you ask me. We can pick apart this or that, but the fact remains, is we are 12-2, and that sounds pretty damn good to me.

[Nconroe]

Hope we wrap this all up with a win this week playing Vikings and Adrian Petersen.

Houston clinches a first-round bye with:

1) HOU win or tie OR
2) NE loss or tie OR
3) DEN loss

Houston clinches home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs with:

1) HOU win OR
2) HOU tie + DEN loss or tie OR
3) NE loss or tie + DEN loss

[Keith]

Denver's remaining schedule:
16 Sun, Dec 23 vs Cleveland 3:05 PM CBS
17 Sun, Dec 30 vs Kansas City 3:25 PM CBS

NE's remaining schedule:
16 Sun, Dec 23 @Jacksonville 1:00 PM CBS
17 Sun, Dec 30 vs Miami 1:00 PM CBS

I am not expecting any more help from either of these teams to get the Texans the #1 seed.

[cadams]

Originally Posted by Keith

Denver's remaining schedule:
16 Sun, Dec 23 vs Cleveland 3:05 PM CBS
17 Sun, Dec 30 vs Kansas City 3:25 PM CBS

NE's remaining schedule:
16 Sun, Dec 23 @Jacksonville 1:00 PM CBS
17 Sun, Dec 30 vs Miami 1:00 PM CBS

I am not expecting any more help from either of these teams to get the Texans the #1 seed.

if the texans need help then they don't deserve a bye, much less a #1 seed. two winnable games and only need to win one of them.

[HPF Bob]

I tend to agree. The Texans ought to win one of the two games and preferably Sunday's. That's all they need to wrap this up because they have the tiebreaker with Denver and a two-game lead on the Patriots.

[HPF Bob]

Looks like Denver is winning so it should be:

1. Houston 12-3 (has tiebreaker over Denver)
2. Denver 12-3
3. New England 11-4
4. Baltimore 10-5
5. Indianapolis 10-5
5. Cincinnati 9-6

It seems extremely likely that if Houston beats Indy, these standings will look the same next week But if Indy wins, Houston drops to the #3 seed and hosts Cincy in the first round followed by a return trip to New England.

If it stays the way it is now, we get a first round bye before hosting the Balt/Indy winner.

[painekiller]

Originally Posted by HPF Bob

If it stays the way it is now, we get a first round bye before hosting the Balt/Indy winner.

We have to really hope it stays this way.

[Arky]

Though the talk I've heard is Texans as #1 or #3 seed, I wouldn't dismiss the possibility that the Texans could end up the #2 seed. Not likely, but here's the scenario: Texans don't show up again and lose to the Colts, Broncos win over KC, and New England loses to Miami. Miami has won their last two by a combined 48-13 (albeit, Jax and Buffalo) but perhaps New England doesn't take the game seriously and rest starters half a game or so and Miami plays a good game. The spread is roughly NE by 11 and dropping (i.e. money is coming in on Miami). The game is in Foxboro, however......Just something to consider.....

Of course, the Texans could solve everything by taking care of the Colts..... I'd rather see the Texans have a bye week to heal despite the "going to get rusty" argument...