2009 Cap

[cland]

The uncapped year is still a bit of a mystery to me. But to those who know more than I do, what prevents Mr. Mcnair setting this team up for the next 5-7 years in 2010?

My understanding is that 'signing bonuses' are amortized over the length of the contract. However 'roster bonuses' come directly out of the year in which they are given. Typically signing bonuses are used more often to spread the cap hit out over the ~5 years of the contract, however in the uncapped 2010 why not get all the cap hit out of the way?

So imagine next year:

Mario Williams - $50 million guaranteed + minimum salary over 7-year contract.
Demeco Ryans - $30 million guaranteed + minimum salary over 7-year contract.
Owen Daniels - $25 million guaranteed + minimum salary over 7-year contract.
Dunta, Schaub, Johnson, etc.

Don't worry about the numbers they can move up or down, but if that guaranteed payment is a roster bonus (and the value of the contract is what you would pay for those players down the road anyways) haven't you freed yourself of any meaningful cap restrictions that may come back in later years.

It's takes an early investment, but Houston is one of the most valuable franchises in the league. Assuming the cap comes back in 2011 in it's current form, the above players now cost you nothing.

Anyways, maybe there are some rules to prevent this type of activity. But it's interesting regardless.

[dalemurphy]

Keith, the number shrunk. after the two big cuts, I think the number was going to be about $37 million, you've got it at about $32 million right now- before counting Dunta. What happened? what was adjusted?

[Keith]

Originally Posted by dalemurphy

Keith, the number shrunk. after the two big cuts, I think the number was going to be about $37 million, you've got it at about $32 million right now- before counting Dunta. What happened? what was adjusted?

The # on the ItB.com cap page has not changed since Green and Greenwood were cut, so I'm not sure where the $37 million figure is coming from.

After the Greenies were cut, I heard a lot of fans trying to do their own cap calculations in their head... taking the "savings" reported in the media and adding it to a figure seen here or elsewhere. I discussed the misleading differences in the other Green-cutting thread.

I think the biggest gray area I have right now on the cap page is the per game bonuses for Green last year... I need to figure out how those were accounted for in the cap. I think I might get my answer in another week or two when the cap adjustments come out, but if anyone out there has info, let me know.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by cland

The uncapped year is still a bit of a mystery to me. But to those who know more than I do, what prevents Mr. Mcnair setting this team up for the next 5-7 years in 2010?

Sorry I missed this... one thing that will restrict teams with the uncapped (and still CBA-governed) season upcoming in 2010 is the 30 percent rule.

What it does: Limits pushing future compensation into uncapped years.


How it works: A player's base salary plus his LTBE incentives from the last capped year multiplied by 30 percent equals the limitation value (uncapped years cannot increase higher than this value).

http://www.atlantafalcons.com/People...isc_Rules.aspx

[dalemurphy]

Originally Posted by Keith

The # on the ItB.com cap page has not changed since Green and Greenwood were cut, so I'm not sure where the $37 million figure is coming from.

After the Greenies were cut, I heard a lot of fans trying to do their own cap calculations in their head... taking the "savings" reported in the media and adding it to a figure seen here or elsewhere. I discussed the misleading differences in the other Green-cutting thread.

I think the biggest gray area I have right now on the cap page is the per game bonuses for Green last year... I need to figure out how those were accounted for in the cap. I think I might get my answer in another week or two when the cap adjustments come out, but if anyone out there has info, let me know.

Thanks for your time, Keith.

Before the cuts, we were $29.5 million under the cap. Every calculation I've seen adds at least $7 million in savings for the combination on Green and Greenwood. That's where I'm lost.

[Keith]

That $29M figure was a bit overstated in terms of cap room. Biggest reason why is because I only reflected guys under contract in 2009 as of last September or so.

There were a bunch of smaller salaried guys signed to the roster since then that account for the difference. Most of these players have cap figures of $310k or $385k, but with 12 or so added, that makes up more than $4 million of the difference.

I also lowered the cap estimate a bit from $124M to $123M (and added in a cap adjustment estimate of like $432k for the time being), and I updated Mario's base to show the extra $375k he's scheduled to earn in 2009, owed to him because I think he achieved some performance escalators or something.


ETA - I'll get the cap page updated later tonight I hope, but following Dunta's tagging (which technically still needs to be signed), the available cap room lowers to around $22.4 million, give or take a million or so, best guess.

[Roy P]

Originally Posted by Keith

following Dunta's tagging (which technically still needs to be signed), the available cap room lowers to around $22.4 million, give or take a million or so, best guess.

Best guess.....Could we possibly sign Sean Jones or Gibril Wilson this offseason?

[Keith]

From a salary cap perspective? Yes. Plenty of room. The question becomes whether the player would want to come here and philosophically if the Texans wanted the player enough to make the top offer. Ahman Green, Jacques Reeves, Tony Weaver... these are the big signings from the Kubiak era to date. Is there something there that suggests the team might make a splash when UFA opens?

Looking ahead, with the tag deadline passed, I've gotta believe the Texans make offers to a few of their own in the next week, namely Eugene Wilson. Owen Daniels is due a RFA tender at a minimum and possibly a multi-year contract. There are others too.

Signing Dunta Robinson to a long-term contract would probably lower his 2009 cap figure significantly versus the $9.957M tag figure. Probably won't happen until July now though, if at all.

Bottom line is that the Texans have cap room, especially if they put off extending some of their players with expiring deals after this season (DeMeco, Pitts, Walter, etc.)

[papabear]

Originally Posted by Keith

Bottom line is that the Texans have cap room, especially if they put off extending some of their players with expiring deals after this season (DeMeco, Pitts, Walter, etc.)

I would prefer to go ahead and get Demeco's deal done now.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by papabear

I would prefer to go ahead and get Demeco's deal done now.

You know, this whole last capped year bit could be rough on players like Ryans (and maybe Daniels) since they'll still be RFAs when the contracts expire after this season. Does it mean they won't get extensions? Probably not, but I wonder how much of a priority the Texans will make it to work with him.

Players can hold out, that's their leverage. This has the potential of getting really, really ugly unless the owners and the union pound out a CBA extension.

btw, I have updated the 2009 cap page and uploaded the 2010 cap page for the first time. Let me know if something looks off, especially with the 2010 page since it's newest and most prone to error.

[dalemurphy]

Originally Posted by Keith

You know, this whole last capped year bit could be rough on players like Ryans (and maybe Daniels) since they'll still be RFAs when the contracts expire after this season. Does it mean they won't get extensions? Probably not, but I wonder how much of a priority the Texans will make it to work with him.

Players can hold out, that's their leverage. This has the potential of getting really, really ugly unless the owners and the union pound out a CBA extension.

btw, I have updated the 2009 cap page and uploaded the 2010 cap page for the first time. Let me know if something looks off, especially with the 2010 page since it's newest and most prone to error.

Thanks Keith,

It looks like you left off all of our 2009 RFAs: Butler, OD, Dressen, Anderson... I guess they'd all be RFAs in an uncapped 2010 also, if they are only tendered this season.

[Nconroe]

Thanks for all the cap work Keith. does the eonomic pinch come into salary concerns for next year for sports or is it just a concern for us working folks. what if nfl revenue is down? even uncapped, may not be a salary boom.

[dalemurphy]

Originally Posted by Keith

You know, this whole last capped year bit could be rough on players like Ryans (and maybe Daniels) since they'll still be RFAs when the contracts expire after this season. Does it mean they won't get extensions? Probably not, but I wonder how much of a priority the Texans will make it to work with him.

Players can hold out, that's their leverage. This has the potential of getting really, really ugly unless the owners and the union pound out a CBA extension.

btw, I have updated the 2009 cap page and uploaded the 2010 cap page for the first time. Let me know if something looks off, especially with the 2010 page since it's newest and most prone to error.

Keith, NFL.com published a story that 7 of this year's franchised players will become RFAs and only get a 10% raise next season if it's uncapped. It included Dunta as one of those players. However, it was quoting the rule that those are the players with less than 6 years of service. Unfortunately, next season will be Dunta's 7th. So, my question is:

If 2010 is uncapped can teams still use a franchise tag. If they can, then the Texans could still threaten it next season and use it as incentive for a long term contract. However, if there is no 2010 cap, then Dunta can look at this season as earning a quick $10 million, increasing his market value with good play, and then have the opportunity as a UFA to make a ton of money in the first uncapped season in 18 years....

So, what's the story, Keith?

[jppaul]

THey wouldn't need to use the franchise tag they could tender him the highest tender which a team can match but there is a prohibitve cost for that team.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by Nconroe

does the eonomic pinch come into salary concerns for next year for sports or is it just a concern for us working folks. what if nfl revenue is down? even uncapped, may not be a salary boom.

The split of teams considered "haves" and "have nots" should only widen in a recession. Houston is a "have" though, so locally it shouldn't be a big concern. The effects of lower-than-anticipated NFL revenues ought to translate into a lower cap figure for each of the teams. And maybe that has already happened...? The 2009 cap was originally projected at $124 million for each team and now the estimate is at $123 million. I've not heard anyone say that is a reflection of the economy though, at least not yet.

Originally Posted by dalemurphy

Keith, NFL.com published a story that 7 of this year's franchised players will become RFAs and only get a 10% raise next season if it's uncapped. It included Dunta as one of those players. However, it was quoting the rule that those are the players with less than 6 years of service. Unfortunately, next season will be Dunta's 7th. So, my question is:

If 2010 is uncapped can teams still use a franchise tag. If they can, then the Texans could still threaten it next season and use it as incentive for a long term contract. However, if there is no 2010 cap, then Dunta can look at this season as earning a quick $10 million, increasing his market value with good play, and then have the opportunity as a UFA to make a ton of money in the first uncapped season in 18 years....

So, what's the story, Keith?

Wow, good catch. I should fix the 2010 cap page for that. I think Schefter made a mistake with including Dunta on that list. I wondered if Dunta's IR/PUP seasons might have had an effect, but I think both seasons are still considered accrued. His IR and PUP (for football injuries) seasons should still be included.

As for this year's RFAs not being listed on the 2010 page, that was a purposeful omission... I don't list any free agents for more than one season as free agents. Once the tenders are known, I'll update the 2010 page in addition to the 2009 cap page.

And yes, teams can still use the tags in the uncapped year. The change in 2010 is that a team can have two transition tags plus the one franchise tag.

There is a ton of helpful info on the last capped and uncapped years in this blog entry from Chris Pika, a former media relations guy from the Falcons who now blogs for Baltimore radio station's site. Lots of weird stuff... like try reading up on the Final Eight Plan, also in gory detail in the CBA and try to keep your head from spinning.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by Keith

The 2009 cap was originally projected at $124 million for each team and now the estimate is at $123 million. I've not heard anyone say that is a reflection of the economy though, at least not yet.

More cap room than anticipated, and an interesting explanation as to why:

Because teams didn’t spend as much as they were supposed to under the collective bargaining agreement the past three years, teams were notified Wednesday that the salary cap will increase over $4 million to $127 million for this coming year, according to sources with two NFL teams. The collective bargaining agreement calls for cap adjustment down if teams spend over the cap in cash and adjustment up if they don’t spend up to the cap.

It defies the recession and logic, but just before free agency, teams actually will have more flexibility and salary-cap room. ...

http://blogs.nfl.com/2009/02/25/sala...ding-for-2009/

ItB's cap pages have been updated to reflect this and the three cuts announced. I'll update the Rosenfels trade once it becomes official on Friday.

[Keith]

Some info on the cap floor on the front page of the site I wrote.

It's going to be interesting to see how a team like Tampa with their $60 million or so in cap room are going to reach the floor.

So, yeah, the Texans have lots of cap room. But consider that the CBA requires teams to spend to a cap floor. For 2009, that percentage is 87.6% of the salary cap, or $111.25 million.

Translation: in order to just to get to the salary cap floor, the Texans need another $12 million or so to clear the minimum. Wow, right?

http://www.inthebullseye.com/archive/2009/20090226.html

[jppaul]

THey almost have to sign Haynesworth just to get there.

[papabear]

I think some of the players are going to be in for a surprise when some of the small market teams start spending well bellow what would have been the minimum.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by Keith

Shadowy capologist AdamJT13 posted at KFFL what teams used the Philly Loophole to increase their 2009 cap space and by how much. Take the link to read it in full detail (27 of the 32 teams took advantage of the loophole this year).

Updating... AdamJT13 has posted the final adjusted cap amounts, and the Texans figure is $1,081,327. Since the team forwarded $2,032,327 via the LTBE loophole with Brisiel's extension, that means there were $951,000 in NLTBE incentives earned (the majority of which were for Mario, plus that lowered that forwarded amount.

So, bottom line is that with a $127.05 million cap in 2009, the Texans' actual starting cap space will be adjusted upward to $128,131,327.